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Expect a move, albeit a small one, not a blockbuster on Thursday.
Published Feb 03, 2026 • Last updated 1 hour ago • 6 minute read
Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo gets past Toronto Raptors' Ochai Agbaji during the first half of an Emirates NBA cup tournament basketball game in Milwaukee Tuesday Night. Morry Gash/The Associated Press
Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo gets past Toronto Raptors' Ochai Agbaji during the first half of an Emirates NBA cup tournament basketball game in Milwaukee Tuesday Night. Morry Gash/The Associated Press Photo by Morry Gash /AP Photo
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Way back on media day at the start of training camp Toronto Raptors general manager Bobby Webster basically called his shot: At least one move would likely be made at some point during the 2025-26 season to alter the roster.
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It wasn’t exactly a Babe Ruth pointing to where he’d hit his next home run type of moment, but ever since we’ve all been waiting for Webster to make an alteration to a roster that has overachieved, but could use more shooting and size.
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“The likelihood of this team being the same team by the end of the year is probably zero,” Webster had said back in September. “Put on top of that with one move you can get under the tax. So I don’t see that as the urgent piece.”
The answer had come to a query about whether the Raptors would be allowed to pay the luxury tax, the first of a series of penalties for NBA teams spending over the league’s salary cap. Over the first 30 seasons, the Raptors only ended a year over the tax twice, the year they won the title and also once, by a small amount, during the Vince Carter Era.
Which leads us to Thursday’s trade deadline and keeping expectations in check. While Toronto has been linked to superstars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis, a three-time all-star in Domantas Sabonis and even a solid starter like Daniel Gafford, amongst others, the most likely course of action Thursday is a trade that shifts the Raptors under the luxury tax. The team is just shy of $1 million U.S. over the luxury tax, so it theoretically wouldn’t take all that much to duck under. That said, as Sportsnet’s indispensable Blake Murphy pointed out in his trade deadline primer Monday, other factors mean Toronto should probably leave some breathing room and not just cut the $967,000 they are over. To be safe, they should probably aim to about double the savings to closer to $2 million.
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The difference between a tax-paying team and a tax-receiving team is the latter groups get payments (the tax) from the big-spending teams, and this year that amount is projected to be about $14 million per recipient. It wouldn’t make sense to pay the luxury tax unless it came along with a bold move to acquire a top talent. Don’t bet on that.
The Raptors would ideally not only get under the tax, but also bring in a player that can help, likely a big man. To do so they might have to incentivize their trade partner with a second-round pick or two. So far there has been a reluctance to surrender a future first-round pick in such a deal.
In any event, the following are not sourced trade ideas, but rather the type of framework of a variety of moves that might make sense for the Raptors on Thursday, as well as the teams they are negotiating with. Each is compliant with NBA trade rules:
IDEA 1:
Raptors trade Gradey Dick, Jonathan Mogbo and a second-round pick to New Orleans for Yves Missi and Karlo Matkovic.
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Quick summary: The Raptors remain confident Dick will develop into a solid player, but the former No. 13 overall selection has had a rough third campaign and you have to give something to get something. In Missi they’d receive a 21-year-old true centre who can block shots and rebound well while scoring efficiently in the paint. He can’t shoot free throws or three-pointers, but projects as a good backup centre who would fill a need. Mogbo has become a forgotten man after being the first pick of the second round a few years ago, supplanted in part by this year’s prized rookie Collin Murray-Boyles. Matkovic is a 6-foot-10 outside shooter with some similarities to Sandro Mamukelashvili.
Both teams would be under the luxury tax after this deal.
IDEA 2:
Dick and Ochai Agbaji for Kevon Looney, Matkovic, two second-round picks.
Quick summary: Everyone gets under the tax, Raptors get some big man depth and a pick. Looney is not the player he once was, but is an effective third centre with championship pedigree. Once upon a time the Raptors front office, which included Webster, was high on Looney and had considered him as a draft prospect. This probably isn’t enough for the Raptors to bail on Dick.
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IDEA 3:
Dick and Agbaji to Chicago for Ayo Dosunmu, Julian Philips, conditional second-round pick.
Quick summary: Dosunmu is a solid combo guard who is having a breakout shooting season (though he shot over 40% on three-pointers one other time in his previous four seasons) and can also defend. He’s set to become an unrestricted free agent, which is why Chicago might prefer to land Dick, who is still on his rookie contract and then will become a restricted free agent. Toronto wouldn’t get front court help, but Dosunmu would be an ideal backcourt fit.
Both teams would be under the luxury tax with this one.
IDEA 4:
Agbaji to Phoenix for Nick Richards.
Quick summary: This was a popular rumour mill scenario a few weeks ago, but doesn’t get either team under the tax and actually increases Phoenix’s tax bill so would need some tweaking and a pathway is hard to find.
IDEA 5:
Agbaji and Mogbo and a second to Washington for Marvin Bagley III and Julian Champagnie.
Quick summary: Toronto gets well under the luxury tax and adds two serviceable players. Bagley should not have gone second overall in 2018, but he can get buckets and rebound and even shoots the odd three-pointer. Don’t ask about his defence. Champagnie, like his twin brother Justin, a former Raptor, has become a reliable two-way wing. His brother might be the superior player at this point, but Champagnie can defend, rebound and shoot and would be a rotation piece for Toronto
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If there’s nothing else out there, this would be a low-cost way to improve the rotation and get under the tax. Washington could take a flyer on Mogbo and see what Agbaji, who had a good 2024-25 season and has a strong NCAA pedigree, could do.
IDEA 6:
Agbaji and Mogbo to Orlando for Goga Bitadze.
Quick summary: The salaries match nearly exactly, so neither team would avoid the tax. But Orlando would ditch the $7.6M owed to Bitadze, now its third or fourth-string centre, for next season. Since the Raptors are so weak up front (whether Jakob Poeltl is healthy next year or not, and with Bitadze’s countryman Mamukelashvili likely to test free agency), taking on Bitadze’s remaining deal would still be a positive. He can play.
Explaining to Keith Pelley and ownership that they couldn’t duck the tax probably wouldn’t be ideal for the Raptors, but this move would make them a fair bit stronger immediately and moving forward. It would limit their spending this summer though if they want to stay under next season’s luxury tax.
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For this year, perhaps they could find a way to pair this idea with another that gets them under with a separate trade, maybe involving Dick and/or a second round pick.
IDEA 7:
Dick and Mogbo to Indiana for Jay Huff and Ben Sheppard
Quick summary: Raptors get under tax, get a gigantic backup centre who can guard the rim and shoot three-pointers and a prospect taken 13 picks after Dick who was supposed to be a shooter but hasn’t proven himself, for another guy like that in Dick, plus Mogbo.
IDEA 8:
Agbaji Mogbo and a second-round pick to Brooklyn for Day’Ron Sharpe.
Quick summary: Toronto gets a good young big man and under tax for a limited cost. The bonus is while Scottie Barnes loses a close friend in Mogbo in this hypothetical deal, Sharpe’s also a long-time friend (and high school teammate) of Sharpe.
Brooklyn would probably want a first round pick though, as the Pelicans would with Missi and it’s hard to see the Raptors parting with one for either.
@WolstatSun
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