The Clippers were the best team in January, going 11-4 during that stretch and putting themselves back into the playoff picture in the West. The Cavs were the No. 2 team in the East, going 10-5 and jumping from eighth place to fourth in the standings.
With both teams finally starting to hit their groove, it was somewhat shocking to learn from ESPN's Shams Charania on Monday night that the two teams were exploring a trade centered around James Harden in exchange for Darius Garland.
Why make a sudden change now? It makes sense when you break down the proposed trade from every angle.
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Why the Cavs want to trade Darius Garland
The Cavs came into the season as the favorites to win a very weak Eastern conference. At least one of those predictions was right. The Cavs have sputtered, but the East is a mess. The Pistons have put 7.5 games ahead of any other team and will probably be the No. 1 seed. The race for the No. 2 seed is wide open though. It's anyone's guess as to who makes it to the Finals.
After hovering around .500 for most of 2025, the Cavs are only two games out of that No. 2 seed. They've made a surge without Garland, who hasn't been able to stay healthy and has missed the team's last nine games. They do need what he provides though. They've dropped from the No. 1 offense in the league last year down to No. 8.
Harden can provide that type of boost. He's quietly had an All-Star caliber season, averaging 25.4 points and 8.1 assists per game. While he has a deserved reputation of being a distraction, he's been a rock for the Clippers ever since signing there. Most importantly, he's been very healthy.
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Harden isn't the easiest player to fit into an offense. He famously stated two years ago that "I'm not a system player. I'm a system."
He wasn't totally wrong when he said that. Harden is still one of the best passers in the league. He should make things easier for his teammates and take some of the load off Donovan Mitchell, who has had to do way too much this year.
Counting on Harden in the playoffs is always a dicey situation. As my former colleague and Cavs fanatic Jordan Zirm stated, this is a win-now move for a guy who's never won anything. The bar for winning the East has never been lower though, and Mitchell is still going to be the guy in Cleveland. Harden simply needs to be on the floor to be an additive force for the team. It's certainly a risk, but one worth taking.
Garland is an All-Star caliber player when he's been available, and he's hitting his prime at age 26. That availability is his big issue. Dating back to college, he hasn't been able to stay healthy. A left big toe sprain hampered his effectiveness last year. He's currently out with a right big toe sprain. He has missed 22 percent of the Cavs' regular season games in his seven years in Cleveland.
Even if Garland were totally healthy, his contract would still be an overpay. He's scheduled to make $42 million next season and $45 million in 2027-28. My salary model has that deal $53 million underwater assuming a normal minutes load. Given how injured he has been, a better estimate has his deal closer to $65 million in negative value.
For the Cavs, this deal is about the financials as much as it is the talent upgrade (and yes, Harden has been better than Garland this year). Harden has a player option and a partial guarantee of $13 million for next season. Trading for him gets the Cavs off the next two years of Garland's bad deal. It also gives them opportunities to get under the second apron next season, allowing them much more flexibility in making moves this summer (Hello, LeBron).
Donovan Mitchell's contract also comes into play. It seems unlikely that he would sign an extension with Cleveland if they have another early playoff exit, per ESPN's Tim Bontemps.
Mitchell has been an All-NBA player in Cleveland. If he goes, so too do the Cavs' championship aspirations. That desperation to win now could be putting more pressure on a Harden move.
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Why the Clippers want to trade James Harden
Harden has previously stated that he wanted to retire a Clipper. Why then the sudden change of heart?
Once again, it mostly comes down to money. Harden isn't extension-eligible, but he can re-sign with a team this summer. He likely wanted some sort of promise that would happen, which would violate the league's collective bargaining agreement at a time when the Clippers are currently under investigation.
The Clippers also don't seem all that interested in continuing on with their core. They've structured their big Harden and Kawhi Leonard contracts to expire in 2027, where they can flip the team into a younger group with a higher ceiling. Ivica Zubac, on an excellent $21 million deal, will be the only guaranteed contract on the roster by that time.
That was the plan, at least, before the Clippers were hit with a salary cap circumvention scandal around Leonard. The whispers are that those penalties will be severe, and they will be handed down after the All-Star game in Los Angeles. It makes sense from Harden's side to get out before that punishment makes team-building even more difficult and while it's clear that Los Angeles doesn't want to continue with him past 2027.
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Harden holds a lot of control in this situation. He has veto power over any trade, so the list of teams that the Clippers could make a deal with is limited. Given that he seems amenable to going to Cleveland, this is a good return for them.
The Clippers know that they're not winning a ring with a 36-year-old Harden, however good he's been. From their perspective, it makes sense to get a younger All-Star in Garland.
Holding the deal up is the Cavs' desire for the Clippers to attach a first-round pick or swap, per SI's Chris Mannix. The Clippers only have two tradeable first-rounders for now. That number could go down after the sanctions from the Leonard investigation are handed down. Given that the Cavs are under more pressure to make a deal than the Clippers, they should win that side of the negotiation.
This trade makes sense from all sides. The draft compensation still needs to be ironed out, but this is a deal that gives the Cavs a more immediate upgrade along with financial flexibility. The Clippers can get younger and look towards the future. Harden gets to go where he wants, and Garland gets a chance to be the No. 1 guy on a team again. This one has a very likely probability of going through by Thursday's deadline.