Nobody except a few Milwaukee Bucks owners and executives really has any idea if Giannis Antetokounmpo will be dealt before Thursday’s 3 p.m. trade deadline.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst says it’s 51-49 he won’t be traded this week.
The Ringer’s Zach Lowe says he believes it’s 50-50, but the teams involved in the pursuit believe it’s 80-20 against a trade in the next two days: “The consensus is they are a little skeptical the Bucks will move him now.”
But this much is clear: If the Bucks wait until the offseason, that will help other teams more than Miami in two regards:
1). While the Heat could offer three first-round picks this summer (as opposed to two now unless it acquires another this week), the only additional pick that can be offered by Miami this summer is the Heat’s first-round pick in 2026.
Miami would be required to make that pick on behalf of the Bucks. But what if the Heat misses the playoffs, gets lucky in the lottery and doesn’t want to trade that pick?
Even this summer, the Heat would be unable to offer more future first-round picks than it could offer now unless it convinces itself and Charlotte to remove the lottery protections on the pick due the Hornets in 2027 or 2028. (That option is available to Miami now).
Though teams can trade 2033 first-round picks beginning after June’s draft, that won’t help the Heat. Because teams cannot be left without a first-round pick in consecutive seasons, and because the Hornets could end up with Miami’s first-round pick in 2028, that would continue to make the Heat’s 2029 pick off limits.
And that means the Heat could offer the same number of future picks this summer (two) that it could now. The only difference is that Miami could offer a maximum of two picks from among 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2033, as opposed to only 2030 and 2032 in an offer this week.
Conversely, Minnesota and the Knicks - who have no tradable first-round picks now - can offer two this summer (2026 and 2033).
ESPN continues to report that the Wolves, Knicks, Heat and Warriors are the most aggressive suitors for Antetokounmpo. While the Heat wouldn’t benefit as much as the Wolves and Knicks by the Bucks waiting until the summer, Miami would benefit more than Golden State, which can offer four unprotected first-round picks now and cannot sweeten its offer this summer.
2). While the Heat appears to have limited competition at the moment (if you believe the ESPN report that there are four aggressive suitors), the numbers of Antetokounmpo suitors could grow this summer.
There’s a decent chance that a team with championship aspirations will lose in the second round of the playoffs and decide to pursue Antetokounmpo - whether it’s Houston or San Antonio or Detroit or some other darkhorse.
The tradable contract dynamic
There’s another reason that the Bucks taking this into the summer won’t help Miami:
The Heat’s number of tradable contracts diminishes in the summer. The Heat won’t be able to trade Terry Rozier’s contract, which expires after the season, or Andrew Wiggins if he opts out of $30 million for next season.
But this isn’t quite the deterrent that it might seem, unless Andrew Wiggins opts in and Norman Powell re-signs with Miami.
Without Wiggins and Powell, the Heat won’t be close to tax or apron team this summer. The Bucks won’t be, either, and that loosens trade restrictions.
In order to absorb Antetokounmpo’s $58.4 million salary next season, the Heat must send the Bucks a minimum of $46.5 million in salaries.
That can be easily achieved with a package of Tyler Herro ($33 million), Kel’el Ware ($4.6 million), Jaime Jaquez ($5.9 million) and Kasparas Jakucionis ($3.8 million), plus picks.
It also can be achieved with Herro and Nikola Jovic ($16 million) or Davion Mitchell ($12 million), though the Bucks obviously want more. Jovic’s poison pill that complicates a trade disappears July 1.
But here’s the caveat: If Wiggins opts in and the Heat re-signs Norman Powell to a fair market contract, then Miami would need to send back equal salary to the Bucks for Antetokounmpo because they would be in luxury tax territory (projected to be $201.7 million) and very close to the first apron (projected to be $210.3 million).
Where not having Rozier’s salary as cap ballast could hurt the Heat is if the Bucks insists that Miami and other suitors take back at least one of the Bucks’ other players, including Bobby Portis (due $14.5 million next season, with a $15.5 million player option in 2027-28) or Kyle Kuzma ($20.3 million next season in the final year of his contract).
The Heat could still make that work, but it would leave Miami with at least seven open roster spots and no cap space.
Potential positives for Heat if this drags
One positive for the Heat if this drags into the summer: Though the Timberwolves and Knicks would gain additional assets, the Knicks will remain up against the first apron and Minnesota would be close.
That makes trades more difficult and would give Miami more flexibility than those teams would have to complete a trade, though it would certainly be do-able for the Knicks and Wolves.
If the Bucks wait until the summer, there’s another factor that could potentially help Miami:
Antetokounmpo would have more leverage in June because he would be closer to potential free agency, if he declines his $62.7 million player option for 2027-28.
If he presents the Bucks with a short list of teams with whom he would sign an extension, that would narrow the list of suitors because teams aren’t giving up the farm for a player who might bolt in a year.
So that could help the Heat if Miami is on that list, which wouldn’t be a surprise.
But it also would help the Wolves and Knicks, who also are believed to be of interest to Antetokounmpo.
Injury update
The Heat on Tuesday downgraded Powell from questionable to doubtful for Tuesday night’s home game against Atlanta because of the undisclosed personal reasons that have sidelined him for the past two games.
Jovic, who missed Miami’s win against Chicago on Sunday because of a hip injury, was upgraded from questionable to available.