The writing is on the wall: Giannis Antetokounmpo will be on the move, and the Atlanta Hawks are in a prime position to reap the rewards.
The Minnesota Timberwolves were the quiet partners in a three-way trade today, sending a first round pick to dump Mike Conley’s $10.7 million contract. The kicker? Conley is on an expiring deal.
Why would Minnesota be willing to part ways with a first round pick – quite the valuable asset – for a relatively small expiring contract? The only plausible explanation would be that they are making room for a much larger trade that would warrant such a lofty price.
Shams Charania reported that Minnesota “creates significant tax savings and roster space as they pursue a Milwaukee star this week.” Unless Kevin Porter Jr. is a star in your eyes, this means the Wolves are pushing the chips in for Giannis.
Bulls and Pistons have desires met here in a young and veteran guards to Chicago and a sharpshooter goes to Detroit. Minnesota creates significant tax savings and roster space as they pursue a Milwaukee star this week. https://t.co/u9FiTn4wTD
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) February 3, 2026
This doesn’t mean Giannis will necessarily end up in Minnesota, but it does mean the team is making a serious bid. Whether the Timberwolves are outbid by a competing trade package or indeed land him, their aggression with the Conley trade appears to indicate someone will reach Milwaukee’s asking price.
If Antetokounmpo is out, Atlanta is up.
The Hawks benefit greatly from any Giannis trade
The Hawks were gifted a gift from the heavens this summer when the Pelicans, for reasons nobody has been able to surmise, offered Atlanta the rights to their unprotected first round pick this year. This pick is the more favorable between New Orleans and Milwaukee – a byproduct of the Jrue Holiday trade years ago.
New Orleans is bad, but Milwaukee was projected to be a playoff team. Few expected the Antetokounmpo situation to unfold the way it did. After all, they just stretched Damian Lillard’s contract and signed Myles Turner to quite a hefty deal. It appeared the team was ready to battle for at least one more season, even if it was disastrous.
However, things change quickly in the NBA. A poor season relative to expectations sparked a change of heart, both from the player and organization. With Antetokounmpo out the door, the Bucks could fall from grace quite quickly.
Milwaukee is 15-15 (50% record) with Giannis available and 3-14 (17.6%) without him. While his trade package will return the Bucks at least one player that will help the team win games, I’d wager their record moving forward is closer to the latter.
Currently, New Orleans has the second-best lottery odds and Milwaukee the seventh-best. In practice, this means the Pels pick has a 52.1% chance of being a top-four pick, while the Bucks pick has a 31.9% chance. The Bucks will only continue to trend downward without their star player, meaning Milwaukee’s odds should only improve.
Let's run an experiment to see if Atlanta would land a top-four pick this summer. Find a coin (or ask Google to flip one for you) – heads is a win, tails is a loss. Flip the coin. If it’s heads, congratulations! The Pelicans' pick was in the top four. If tails, you still have a chance.
Flip the coin two more times. If you land heads both times, congratulations! The Bucks’ pick was in the top four. If you also landed heads for the Pelicans pick, this means you get two chances at a top-four pick – a minimum spot of third. If you lost both picks, no worries – the Pelicans' pick is currently guaranteed to land in the top six.
Unlike the other winners from deadline deals today, Atlanta didn’t even give anything up for their trade win. They simply saw their Shams notification and adjusted their scouting focus accordingly. Without lifting a finger, they instantly improved their long-term outlook as much as any other team.