We’re just days away from Friday morning’s NBA trade deadline.
And the rumour mill is heating up ahead of another what’s set to be another active period, with some big names potentially on the move.
Below we run through a series of predictions for the trade deadline.
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Giannis WON’T be traded (yet)
A calf injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo has thrown a big spanner in the works to his ongoing trade saga. Even if trade talk has significantly ramped up in recent times and his absence on the court has perhaps given all parties a good chance to seriously think things over.
But if there was already a level of uncertainty around whether the Milwaukee Bucks would cut the cord and move Antetokounmpo, the superstar’s injury now makes it more likely a trade drags into the off-season.
Make no mistake, Antetokounmpo will eventually get traded. It just feels unlikely that a deal will materialise over the next few days.
Unless, of course, a team bowls over Milwaukee with an offer too good to refuse, or the situation has become toxic internally to the extent that the Bucks feel a need to move.
All the talk earlier this season was that the Bucks were in fact going to look to be buyers and try and improve the roster around the ‘Greek Freak’. But with Antetokounmpo out for multiple weeks in a major setback to the Bucks’ already flailing season, that surely won’t be the case anymore.
And perhaps it actually makes it easier for Milwaukee to accept its fate and say ‘screw it’ and trade the 31-year old.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP
Giannis Antetokounmpo. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFPSource: AFP
A decision as major as this, however, simply still appears more likely to push into the US summer, when more serious suitors could emerge after contenders fall short of their expectations.
For example, what if San Antonio or Houston flame out in the second round of the playoffs? They’re two teams that could arguably table the best packages but aren’t currently in the picture.
To that point; the off-season is when there would be a bigger market and better offers — including teams having more picks to trade. Plus Antetokounmpo will be healthy.
His health is another factor to consider. As a prospective buyer, if it’s looking to make a big push this season, currently doesn’t know exactly long it’s going to get the superstar for. Antetokounmpo mightn’t be back until mid-March, which would be in the final few weeks of the regular season that finishes on April 12.
And after this season, Antetokounmpo is contracted for two more campaigns, but crucially with a player option in 2027/28. Without some sort of commitment, are you really selling the farm for potentially one and a bit guaranteed seasons of Antetokounmpo?
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And Golden State, the Lakers and Miami will largely stand pat as a result
If Antetokounmpo is off the table, expect teams that see themselves as realistic landing spots to keep their powder dry.
That’s because they’ll want to preserve their assets in hopes of striking a deal for the Bucks superstar this off-season.
As opposed to making another move that could then compromise their ability to land Antetokounmpo when they get a proper chance.
Golden State, the Lakers and Miami are three teams that have been constantly linked to Antetokounmpo, but even now, are limited with what they can offer.
Besides, even if the aforementioned teams did look to make another move, they feel more than one addition away from being legit title contenders (certainly in Golden State’s case without Jimmy Butler).
That doesn’t preclude those teams from making changes around the edges.
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But if Giannis is moved... one team is sending all the right signals
Minnesota is another team that has been consistently linked to the Bucks superstar, and after trading Mike Conley to clear roster space while also significantly reducing its luxury-tax bill, the Timberwolves have made their intentions clear.
They also reportedly passed up the chance to get Coby White included in the trade despite having a glaring need at guard.
It all points to the Timberwolves at least trying to make a major, all-in play for Antetokounmpo before the deadline.
Now, Minnesota doesn’t have a first-round pick it can trade and only have one unprotected 2028 first-round pick swap to entice Milwaukee with, so a third team would likely have to be involved.
Jaden McDaniels is the obvious centrepiece of a potential deal, whether he would head to Milwaukee or to the third team if they have a bundle of picks to send the Bucks’ way.
Jaden McDaniels (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
Jaden McDaniels (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
The Timberwolves also have Julius Randle and Naz Reid as other potential trade chips they could offer, potentially bundled together with McDaniels and the 2028 pick swap in one major move for Antetokounmpo that would leave Minnesota with very little depth, so it would be a gamble of sorts.
Either way, the Timberwolves are clearly exploring every avenue to trade for the two-time MVP before the deadline. And if they can’t?
While they haven’t traded for White yet, don’t be surprised if they go back to the Bulls should the Antetokounmpo pursuit not lead to anything.
Either he or Ayo Dosunmo would offer another player that can handle the ball to take some of the load off Anthony Edwards, and give them the best chance to compete against the best teams in the West.
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AD also won’t be on the move
If not Antetokounmpo, some saw Anthony Davis as the biggest potential prize on the trade market. But a Davis deal also feels increasingly unlikely.
It simply feels like the worst possible time for Dallas to trade the oft-injured star centre, who’s again sidelined with a finger injury.
Various setbacks have limited Davis to a total of 29 reappearances, plus two play-in games for Dallas since joining the Mavericks in the Luka Doncic trade 12 months ag0.
Davis has already missed 26 games this season and he’s set to be sidelined through the trade deadline.
So if the market was already lukewarm on Davis, at least in terms of how much teams would be willing to give up, his value has only decreased.
Not to mention that holding the 32-year old could help the Mavericks tank, if they wanted to go down that path, by heavily managing him in the latter parts of the season and even the possibility of shutting him down.
It’s worth noting, however, that Davis is eligible for a behemoth four-year, $275 million extension in August. The closer he gets to that date, the more the number of interested parties could dwindle.
But you still feel like a few teams could talk themselves into Davis in the off-season when (or if) he’s healthy. And perhaps that’s ultimately the Mavericks!
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And Ja will only be traded on one condition
Memphis accepts it’s not going to get the juicy trade package it probably expects.
When ESPN first reported the Grizzlies were open to offers for Ja Morant, the story stated Memphis was searching for young talent and draft capital in return.
But it’s unlikely the Grizzlies will fetch much of anything for the 26-year old guard at this point, given his drop off since his All-Star days.
That’s both due to his on declining on-court production — and lack thereof due to ongoing injuries (including a current elbow issue) — and off-court drama that’s surrounded him.
Put it all together and there’s not an obvious trade market for Morant. Unless a team could secure him on the cheap, like Washington did with Trae Young.
Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)Source: AP
That would be a tough reality for Memphis to accept considering he’s still revered in the city and with his commercial impact on a small-market team.
But after trading Desmond Bane in the off-season and now Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies well and truly look like they are committed to move in a new direction.
The question, however, is how desperate they are to move off Morant now considering the return will not be what they once hoped for.
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James Harden finds a new home in Cleveland
This one may seem obvious since it was literally reported yesterday.
But as NBA insider Marc Stein clarified overnight, just because the Cavaliers have shown interest in Harden doesn’t mean it is close to a done deal.
In fact, Stein reported that discussions on a trade have “not yet reached an advanced stage”.
Given the situation the Cavaliers find themselves in, however, it seems to be trending towards the Eastern Conference contenders making a big push for the title this year.
Injuries have seen Cleveland take a major step back after last year’s dominant regular season, with Darius Garland in particular struggling to stay healthy.
There were already question marks over his future in Cleveland and fit alongside Donovan Mitchell in the backcourt, so if you combine that with the health concerns and the fact this Cavaliers team is expensive enough as is, it makes sense for them to feel compelled to make an aggressive move at the deadline.
Getting off Garland’s contract now will help the Cavaliers in the long-term and it could allow them to get under the second apron for next year if the Harden experiment doesn’t work and they let him walk.
James Harden. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
James Harden. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
Harden’s contract situation next season is a bit complicated: he has a player option on June 29, then a partially guaranteed deal which becomes fully guaranteed on July 11.
Now, Harden obviously could opt into the contract but his $42.3 million salary is only partially guaranteed for $13.3 million even if he exercises the player option, meaning the Cavaliers would save a lot of money on their books given Garland has two years and $87 million left on his deal.
That would put them under the second apron and give the Cavaliers some flexibility as they look to re-shape the roster in the bid to win a championship.
That, of course, is if it doesn’t work out. If it does, this will have been a great trade anyway and is why it makes plenty of sense as the Cavaliers can’t rely on Garland to stay healthy and while Harden may be 36 years old, he is still playing top-level basketball and would add another elite shot creator alongside Mitchell and facilitator to improve the offensive flow.
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MPJ might be the best scorer to be dealt... but keep an eye on another star
Hard to recall a deadline when the biggest stars on trade watch are either injured or their value is at an all-time low.
It means Brooklyn’s Michael Porter Jr. could well end up being the one of the bigger names dealt by February 6. Though even a Porter deal suddenly looks more unlikely than likely.
Particularly considering one of his reported suitors, Golden State, is no longer expected to be a buyer after Jimmy Butler’s ACL injury. And another suitor, Milwaukee, is clearly rethinking its plans after Antetokounmpo’s setback.
But after the Nets landed Porter from Denver last off-season along with an unprotected first-round pick, flipping the star forward again for additional assets would be a win for a team that’s prioritising its long-term future in the perfect sell-high opportunity.
Porter has also effectively be too good (who knew there was such a thing) for a Nets outfit that’s very much in tank mode. And wants the best currency possible in a stacked 2026 draft, where they currently have the fifth-best lottery odds.
It means that, if Porter isn’t traded, you sense he’ll be heavily restricted in the back-half of the season.
If Porter is traded, the Nets should rightfully demand a lot for Porter. He’s replenished his trade value an then some by playing at an All-Star level. In fact, he probably would’ve been an All-Star if Brooklyn had won more games.
Brooklyn Nets forward Michael Porter Jr.. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Brooklyn Nets forward Michael Porter Jr.. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)Source: AP
Plus, the likes of Desmond Bane and Mikal Bridges yielded multiple first-round picks in trades in recent years.
Despite the injury concerns (ironic given how many of his ex-Nuggets teammates have been injured), Porter is still only 28 and thus yet could figure into Brooklyn’s future and help the franchise when it’s ready to make a serious push. Plus a new contract beyond next season, when his deal expires, shouldn’t be that pricy.
In the end, maybe teams just won’t be willing to meet Brooklyn’s asking price.
Also, keep at least one eye on Trey Murphy.
All the talk until now has been that New Orleans is keen to retain Murphy.
But given where the Pelicans are sitting among the bottom seeds in the West and prioritising building up long-term assets for the future, don’t be shocked if they sell high if they get an overwhelming offer.
There hasn’t been much reporting around Murphy being shopped or trade talks with other teams. But this is the NBA we’re talking about ...
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Pistons don’t make any major moves
The Pistons are in an interesting position in the Eastern Conference, with a chance to add a legit scorer like Porter or Murphy and really cement their position as a title contender.
Or, they could look at a cheaper option and based on the first move they made before the deadline, it seems like that will be the route they take.
Kevin Huerter is having a down shooting year but has typically otherwise been a pretty dependable 3-point shooter who, with a high-level playmaker like Cade Cunningham getting into the paint and condensing the defence, could thrive when given open looks.
He should also help open up the court and add some much-needed spacing for a Pistons team that has plenty of size and defence in the form of Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren, but lacked shooting.
Jaden Ivey is only young and will be given the space and time to develop at the Bulls, whereas he wouldn’t have been afforded the same freedom in a Pistons team with title aspirations.
Detroit sits first in the East and would have to be the favourite to come out of the conference right now. Given the weakened state of the conference, this is a golden opportunity for the Pistons to make the NBA Finals.
Yet they might be one piece short of being a legitimate chance to go on and win the title against whichever juggernaut the West spits out.
While Detroit is the No. 2 rated defensive team in the NBA, it sits outside the top 10 on offence.
As good as Cunningham is, the superstar guard is their only elite offensive player and there’s been a huge onus on him all season.
You wonder how much that could one, wear Cunningham down, and two, make the Pistons too one dimensional on that end of the floor in an area other teams will surely exploit come the playoffs.
Huerter won’t be a game-changer, but he is a cheap alternative that allows the Pistons to improve without drastically mortgaging their future.
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Kings blow it up
From a legitimate contender that might be one piece short, to a side at the other end of the standings ready to tear it down.
Sacramento is on full-blown blow it up watch with what’s been a disaster season for a franchise that went into the campaign with a level of expectation (emphasis on level).
This was effectively a team built to contend for the playoffs but currently sits dead-last in the NBA on a nine-gaming losing streak.
It should make just about everyone on their roster available including veterans DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis, if there’s interest in them, after Sacramento already shook things up with a trade last week.
They mightn’t be done there, so expect the Kings to be aggressive in retooling this roster to boost their lottery odds and set themselves up for a rebuild, as reports have indicated.
Knicks try — but fail — to shake things up
No one is pushing the panic button yet in New York. They’re partly afforded that luxury being in the East.
But in a season they had big expectations with a roster they’re chips in on under new coach Mike Brown, the Knicks don’t look like serious contenders.
Even a Boston team missing Jayson Tatum appears equal to New York and a young Detroit side that’s on the rise has been a level above all season.
This was supposed to be the Knicks’ time, however, with owner James Dolan saying in a recent interview he expects them to make NBA Finals.
So look for New York’s front office to take a big swing, or at least attempt to, before the trade deadline.
Karl Anthony-Towns’ name has emerged in trade rumours and it wouldn’t be a shock if the team tried to move the star centre or one of their other core starters, outside of Jalen Brunson.
It feels like the type of situation where we find out a few days after the trade deadline that New York called team X or Y about a superstar player.