Manchester City return to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday night with a clear objective, to complete the job against Newcastle and book a place at Wembley. The Carabao Cup semi final second leg arrives at a moment of tension for Pep Guardiola, whose side have recently shown vulnerability after periods of control.
City carry a 2-0 lead from the first leg on Tyneside, where goals from Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki gave them a commanding platform. On paper, it represents a comfortable cushion, but recent evidence suggests this tie is not yet settled.
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Newcastle’s aggressive opening spell against Liverpool last weekend was a reminder that Eddie Howe’s side can unsettle elite opposition when rhythm and intensity align.
For City, the need for a response has become an emerging theme. A late collapse at Tottenham, where a point slipped away after appearing secure, has sharpened the focus on Guardiola’s squad management and resilience. With Arsenal already through to the final after a 4-2 aggregate win over Chelsea, the pressure is firmly on City to avoid a rare domestic cup exit.
Carabao Cup semi final context and momentum
Newcastle arrive as the reigning Carabao Cup holders, having beaten Liverpool in last season’s final. That experience still shapes the belief within Howe’s group, even as injuries continue to disrupt their rhythm. While the first leg deficit is significant, Newcastle showed last weekend that they can dominate phases of a match, even away from home.
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City’s broader context complicates matters. The dropped points at Spurs widened the gap to Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table to six points, adding to the sense that this season demands precision rather than comfort. Guardiola is unlikely to allow any complacency, particularly given the manner in which control has slipped late in recent fixtures.
This second leg therefore feels less procedural than the aggregate score might suggest. It carries the weight of reaction, discipline and game management, elements that have defined City at their best but have occasionally wavered.
Man City vs Newcastle team news and injury impact
City’s preparations remain shaped by defensive disruption. Josko Gvardiol and John Stones are still sidelined, while Ruben Dias has only just returned to training. The January signing of Marc Guehi offered some structural reassurance, but his ineligibility for this competition limits Guardiola’s options.
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Max Alleyne has been recalled from Watford to ease the load on Abdukodir Khusanov and Nathan Ake, though his performances since returning have been inconsistent. Further forward, Jeremy Doku has suffered another setback after being withdrawn in the 2-0 win over Galatasaray, while Rayan Cherki is expected to miss out with a knock sustained against Tottenham. Savinho remains unavailable with a hamstring issue.
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Newcastle’s injury list is equally disruptive. Captain Bruno Guimaraes has missed the last three matches with an ankle problem and is unlikely to feature, despite Howe confirming he is “doing well”. Tino Livramento is out with a hamstring injury, while Emil Krafth continues to recover from a knee issue.
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Joelinton’s groin problem is expected to keep him out for weeks rather than months, with Howe confirming the midfielder travelled to Barcelona for treatment. Lewis Miley and Sven Botman were both benched at Anfield after minor knocks, though the Newcastle manager has expressed optimism that Botman will be available.
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Man City vs Newcastle prediction and tactical outlook
Newcastle’s performance at Anfield offered encouragement despite the 4-1 scoreline. They controlled the opening stages and led through Anthony Gordon, deployed centrally, before Liverpool’s quality eventually told. That approach may yet influence Howe’s selection here.
The decision up front remains pivotal. Howe could opt for greater physical presence by introducing Nick Woltemade, or persist with Gordon through the middle, supported by wide options such as Harvey Barnes and Anthony Elanga or Jacob Murphy.
City, however, are unlikely to allow the match to drift. Guardiola’s side were visibly stung by the late setback at Spurs and this fixture offers an opportunity to reassert authority. With Wembley within reach and domestic momentum at stake, City should have enough to manage the occasion, even if Newcastle threaten intermittently.
Prediction: Man City to win, 2-1.
Head to head record
Man City wins: 80
Newcastle wins: 74
Draws: 42