Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks
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Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks
The NBA trade deadline has not hit, but as it creeps nearer, it has become increasingly clear that only a Hail Mary from the Miami Heat, the Minnesota Timberwolves or some shock suitor will get a deal with the Milwaukee Bucks for Giannis Antetkounmpo across the line before the 3 p.m. ET deadline. But if you’re worried about Giannis trade-rumor withdrawal, have no fear: We’re only getting started as the Lakers, Knicks and others should now be better positioned for a summer blockbuster.
And that is going to mean months and months of whispers, reports and proposed trades.
But let’s get into where things stand, with the Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo, as well as other teams, barring a shocking late shift.
For the Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo, This Is Portland-Damian Lillard 2.0
If the dance between Antetokounmpo and Lillard feels familiar, it’s because we’ve seen this movie before. The Bucks don’t want to trade Antetokounmpo because he is a franchise icon still at his peak and they’re a small market team. Antetokounmpo doesn’t want to turn his back on the small market that supported him so ardently from the very beginning of this career, so he keeps issuing emotional statements on why he wants to retire with the Bucks.
But the Bucks want to win. And Antetokounmpo wants to win. That’s just not going to happen because the Bucks consistently mortgaged the future to get support pieces for Antetokounmpo.
It’s pretty much where Damian Lillard and the Blazers were in 2022. It was clear to everyone that the sides needed to part, but Lillard was too loyal to Portland to ask for it, and the organization did not want to crassly ship him off for draft picks. There was a holding pattern for years, until he was shipped to Milwaukee for Jrue Holiday, two pick swaps and a first-rounder.
The Blazers could have gotten more by acting decisively earlier. The Bucks are in danger of doing the same with Antetokounmpo.
Damian Lillard, Bucks
GettyDamian Lillard formerly of the Milwaukee Bucks.
Summer NBA Trade Market For Giannis Antetokounmpo Will Be Wider
But the market this summer will be reset, and teams will have more financial flexibility, fewer CBA-induced restrictions and more draft capital on hand to trade. The bet for the Bucks is that teams like the Lakers and Knicks, and even the Heat and Timberwolves, will be better positioned than they are now for a deal.
They will all certainly be interested.
Back when Antetokounmpo suffered a calf strain last month and it was reported he would be out until after the deadline, one GM told Heavy that the injury could make the Bucks see the writing on the wall but added, “It still probably waits until the summer, but if the right deal is there and a team is desperate enough–think of the Knicks, the Warriors, the Heat–the Bucks probably know nothing is going to change and pull the trigger now.
“There will be a bigger pool of teams in the summer, though.”
Lakers, Knicks–and Everyone on the NBA Trade Market–Better Positioned This Summer
Part of that will depend on how the next two months of the season go, as well as the NBA draft lottery and the playoffs.
If the Knicks get knocked out of the playoffs before the Finals, they will have extra incentive to make a trade, and perhaps add some draft capital by making a separate trade involving Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart or Miles McBride.
The Lakers should have the cap space next summer to give the Bucks financial relief in a deal, and to send out at least two first-round picks. They can also absorb a bad contract along with a young talent and/or picks that could be redirected to Milwaukee. There are just a lot more options.
Go down the list: Would the Spurs, Thunder or Rockets change their Giannis stances if they flame out in the postseason? Would the Nuggets package Jamal Murray to pair Antetokounmpo with Nikola Jokic? Would the Magic send out a young star if they continue to disappoint? Maybe the Celtics capitalize on Jaylen Brown’s MVP season and swap him for an Antetokounmpo-Jayson Tatum future.
That’s all absurdly hypothetical, of course. But it’s indicative of why the Bucks might want to wait on dragging out this saga a little longer.