A shift in style under Andrée Jeglertz has made City more efficient and more dangerous. Sunday’s meeting with Arsenal will be another test to see whether that style works against elite opposition.
Manchester City travel to the Emirates on Sunday to face Arsenal, the newly crowned FIFA Women’s Champions Cup winners. While the hosts look to ride the momentum of their global triumph, City arrive with their sights fixed firmly on the title.
The Citizens will have their tails up after a thumping 5–1 win over Chelsea last time out, a result that moved them 11 points clear of the chasing pack at the top of the Women’s Super League. For the Gunners, who sit fourth, the stakes are also high, with points essential to maintain pressure in the race for Champions League qualification.
This is the most-played fixture in Women’s Super League history (24 meetings), and the two sides are level on wins with 11 each (D2). Manchester City edged the reverse fixture 3–2 in October and will now look to complete a league double over Arsenal for the first time since 2020–21, when they won both matches 2–1.
City’s domestic form has been relentless and they look every inch title winners. They’ve won 13 of their 14 league matches, with their only defeat coming against Chelsea on the opening day of the season (2–1). Since then, they have set the pace through a blend of attacking efficiency and defensive control.
The Opta supercomputer gives City a 97.5% chance of lifting the title, which would mark their first league triumph in a decade. After a series of near-misses, 2025-26 looks to be the season they finally end their long wait. But how have they managed it?
WSL Season Predictions After 14 games
The Long Road Back to the Summit
City’s only WSL title came in 2016, though they have finished as runners-up five times since, including four consecutive second-place finishes between 2017 and 2024. That record underlines their sustained competitiveness in the competition, but also how often they have fallen just short of adding another league crown.
Last season was particularly frustrating. After a near-miss in 2023–24, City slipped to fourth, finishing 17 points behind champions Chelsea and missing out on Champions League qualification.
That disappointment, however, may have reset their trajectory. Under new manager Andrée Jeglertz, and without the demands of European competition, City have been able to focus fully on domestic consistency, the very same trait that defined their last title success.
In 2016, City went unbeaten, drawing three and winning 13 of 16 matches. They scored 36 goals (2.25 per game), conceded only four, and kept 12 clean sheets, collecting 42 points at an average of 2.6 per match. That season was built on defensive control and clinical finishing.
The parallels with their current side are clear. Jeglertz has instilled the same hallmarks, forging a consistent side built on repeatable attacking patterns and ruthlessness in front of goal. City have taken 39 points so far, an average of 2.8 per game, and are setting record-breaking numbers in attack.
They have attempted 272 shots, nine more than any other side, and are the only team to surpass 100 shots on target (105). Those shots have generated a total of 39.8 expected goals, which is not only comfortably clear of any team this season, but on a per-game basis is the most any side has generated in WSL history. City are simply blowing everyone away in attack.
Highest xG Per game in WSL history
From Domination to Directness
What’s curious is that this attacking firepower has come after a significant shift in playing style under Jeglertz. City’s control now comes less from dominating possession and more from dictating tempo and getting possession in more dangerous positions.
Their average possession figure has dropped dramatically from 65.7% to 55.8%, and the average number of passes they’re completing per game is the lowest it’s been in nine years.
Man City shift in style - WSL 2025-26 WSL
But reduced possession has not reduced their threat, it has concentrated it. City are reaching dangerous areas faster. A higher share of their passes now go long, reflecting a willingness to bypass slower build-up phases, while their league-high through-ball total (28) highlights how quickly they look to access space before opposition defences are set.
They’re also not afraid to go down the aerial route. In open play, they are more content with going long than they’ve been in the past, but when out wide, City are whipping in crosses for fun.
They rank second for open-play crosses (247) but first for successful deliveries (66), chances created from crosses (44) and xG assisted from crosses (6.92). They’ve scored seven times from open-play deliveries, over double the number of anyone else in the league.
That aerial strength extends to set-pieces, as well, which is not always an area of the game we associate with City, whether that be the women’s or men’s team. City are joint-top in the league for corners that lead directly to a shot (15) and lead the WSL for goals scored from corner situations (nine). They also rank second for total shots from corners (41).
Defensively, as most top teams do, City remain among the league leaders for high turnovers (121) and have the lowest PPDA (9.6). However, they are less reliant on chaotic regains high up the pitch. Their overall shot-ending high turnover numbers per game have fallen from 3.0 last season to 1.9 this, indicating that more attacks now stem from structured transitions rather than purely disrupting play in advanced areas.
Overall, City no longer need long spells of possession to take control. They’re creating more, shooting more and scoring more, all while seeing less of the ball.
The Firepower Behind the Title Charge
City’s resurgence has been driven not only by structure but also by some elite individuals, including Khadija “Bunny” Shaw.
Shaw leads all WSL players for goal involvements with 18 (14 goals, four assists), at least seven more than any other player. Her per-90 figures are quite frightening, averaging a goal every 87 minutes and a goal involvement every 68 minutes – both are way ahead of all other players, and underline just how much of a constant threat she is whenever on the pitch.
Bunny Shaw goal involvements 2025-26 WSL
As her shot map above shows, Shaw has a lethal combination of shot volume and shot quality. Overall, she’s taken 82 shots, 35 more than anyone else, and landed 35 on target, also a league high. Shaw’s total of 15.5 xG is over double that of any player (next highest Melvine Malard with 6.5) and she’s taking 5.8 shots per game and averaging almost a goal per match.
Alongside Shaw, the return of Vivianne Miedema has been transformative. She ranks second in the squad for goal involvements with 11 and leads City for chances created with 28.
Those two stars are helped by a talented supporting cast. Kerstin Casparij leads the league for assists with six, while five City players, Shaw, Lauren Hemp, Aoba Fujino and Miedema among them, rank among the WSL’s top expected assists contributors. The burden of creating chances is widely shared among the squad.
Then there is Kerolin, who brings a different profile with her dynamic ball-carrying. The second goal of her exquisite hat-trick against Chelsea last weekend followed a carry of 40.7 metres. It’s the longest carry leading to a goal in the WSL this season and the longest since Olivia Smith’s 41.5m run for Liverpool against Brighton in January 2025.
Kerolin ball carry vs Chelsea WSL
That hat-trick saw Kerolin become the first player in WSL history to score a treble against the reigning champions and she now averages a goal involvement every 42 minutes this season; the best rate of any player in a single campaign (minimum 300 minutes).
Big-Game Dominance
Arsenal present a significant test. They defeated reigning champions Chelsea last time out and could keep three consecutive league clean sheets for the first time since January 2025.
For City, this is one of just two remaining matches against current top-four opposition, alongside their meeting with Manchester United in March. Navigating these head-to-heads will shape how smoothly City’s run-in unfolds.
Fixtures against the so-called ‘bigger’ sides are something City have excelled in this season. Last season, they didn’t win a single game home or away against Chelsea, Arsenal or Man Utd. This year, they’ve won three of four matches and sit top of a mini-league between the teams.
The Opta supercomputer sees the upcoming contest as finely balanced, with Arsenal given a 37% win probability, City 36%, and the draw at 26%. But the wider trends and momentum all point towards City.
Last season, these were the exact fixtures that derailed City’s momentum. This year, they’ve completely changed that, showing greater control and resilience in the big games.
With such a gap at the summit, only something catastrophic can derail City’s title charge now. Get past Arsenal this weekend and Manchester United later, and they’ll be celebrating a first WSL title in 10 years.
WSL Stats Opta 2025-26
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