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Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum reacts. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
As optimism builds around Jayson Tatum’s recovery, a detailed breakdown from Celtics analyst Keith Smith of Spotrac has provided the clearest picture yet of what still lies ahead — and why Boston remains cautious despite a significant step forward.
Smith outlined the reality behind Tatum’s latest rehab milestone after reports surfaced that the Celtics star has progressed to controlled five-on-five scrimmages. Writing on X, Smith emphasized that while the development is meaningful, it represents the beginning of a final phase, not an imminent return.
“A few things on the report about Jayson Tatum starting controlled scrimmages,” Smith wrote. “First, you go against coaches. Next will be against the end-of-bench guys. NBA teams rarely have full practices in-season, so every return from major injury starts like this.”
Smith’s explanation reframed the update away from speculation and toward process — a critical distinction as the Boston Celtics balances optimism with long-term risk management.
Why 5-on-5 Scrimmages Don’t Signal Immediate Return
According to Smith, the structure of NBA practices plays a major role in slowing the final stages of rehab, particularly during the regular season.
Unlike training camp or preseason settings, teams rarely conduct full-contact scrimmages involving rotation players. As a result, stars returning from major injuries typically follow a deliberate progression: coaches first, end-of-bench players next, then limited exposure to game-speed situations.
That process becomes even more conservative in cases involving Achilles injuries — historically one of the most delicate recoveries in professional sports.
“Everyone, from Tatum to the coaches to the front office to the medical staff, has been insistent that Tatum will return when he feels ready,” Smith wrote. “Being physically ready is one thing. Being mentally ready is also a huge part of returning.”
Smith’s emphasis on mental readiness echoed a long-held belief around the league: confidence in explosive movements often lags behind structural healing.
Shams Charania: Tatum Focused on Full Version of Himself
Smith’s timeline-driven breakdown builds on reporting from ESPN’s Shams Charania, who first reported that Tatum had reached the five-on-five scrimmage stage.
Charania cautioned that while the progress is encouraging, Tatum has been adamant about how — and when — he returns.
“He wants to come back as close to Jayson Tatum as Jayson Tatum,” Charania said on NBA Countdown. “Not a shell of himself. Not a lesser percentage of himself.”
Charania added that the Celtics medical staff will not clear Tatum until he is fully confident and physically sound.
Medical Perspective Supports Celtics’ Measured Approach
A medical opinion has further reinforced Boston’s cautious posture.
Dr. Nirav Pandya, a professor of orthopedic surgery at the University of California, San Francisco, previously said the timeline now technically supports a return — but with important caveats.
“Somewhere between nine to 12 months post-surgery is totally realistic,” Dr. Pandya wrote on X. “The variability comes from how an athlete performs during on-court work — strength, agility, explosiveness and confidence — as the Achilles is structurally healed.”
Tatum underwent surgery in mid-May, placing him squarely within that window as the Celtics approach the final stretch of the regular season.
Smith’s breakdown, however, underscores a crucial point: medical clearance does not automatically equal basketball readiness.
Celtics Balancing Patience With Playoff Pressure
Smith also pointed to the calendar, noting the narrowing runway.
“Nine weeks until the 2026 NBA playoffs start,” he wrote.
Boston remains entrenched near the top of the Eastern Conference, but their recent loss — a lopsided defeat to the New York Knicks — has highlighted the absence of Tatum’s dynamic scoring, shot creation, and defensive versatility.
Even so, Smith’s comments suggest organizational alignment: no shortcuts, no artificial deadlines.
What Smith’s Breakdown Really Signals for Celtics
While Smith’s analysis does not provide a return date, it clarifies the process — and why Boston’s optimism remains measured even as meaningful progress continues.
For a Celtics team with still championship aspirations in what many expected to be a gap year, that clarity may matter as much as the milestone itself.