Arsenal edge Man City 1–0; West Ham complete a 3–2 comeback vs Brighton; Liverpool smash Villa 4–1; Chelsea beat Spurs 2–0; United win 2–0 at Leicester; Everton nick it 1–0 at London City.
Overview
Matchweek 15 delivered 16 goals across six fixtures (2.67 per game). Every game produced a winner – chaos at the bottom, tension at the top, and the Champions League race tightening further.
The headline was at Emirates Stadium, where Arsenal handed Manchester City their second league defeat of the season – a 1–0 that halted a 13-match winning streak in the league.
Chelsea got back to winning ways with a controlled 2–0 away win at Tottenham Hotspur after back-to-back defeats. Manchester United delivered a professional 2–0 at Leicester City to keep them in second.
The weekend’s wildest swing came at Victoria Road, where West Ham United flipped a 0–2 deficit into a 3–2 win over Brighton & Hove Albion with a stoppage-time winner – a result that changes the mood, and the maths, at both ends of the table.
At the bottom, Liverpool’s recent resurgence is finally paying off as they turned pressure into points with a 4–1 statement win over Aston Villa, while Everton ground out a huge 1–0 away win at London City Lionesses.
Match-by-Match Breakdown
Leicester City 0–2 Manchester United
Venue: King Power Stadium (Leicester) | Attendance: TBC
United went ahead on 13’ when Zigiotti Olme’s delivery from distance (assisted by Malard) drifted into the far corner and ended up at the back of the net. They controlled possession (64%) but only made it safe late on, as Terland finished from close range on 88’ after a Zigiotti Olme assist to seal a 2–0 win.
Key Stats
Manchester United controlled the game territorially –64% possession vs their56.7% season average, and36 touches in the opposition box vs27.7 (≈1.3×). But the dominance didn’t translate into their usual chance quality:1.13 xG vs a1.84 season average, and just1 big chance vs2.80 – so this was more control than clear-cut volume.
Leicester City had16 box touches (above their12.8average) but produced only0.28 xG and0 big chances (below their0.71 average) – they got into the final third often enough, but without the shot quality to seriously stress the result.
Implications
Manchester United stay2nd on31 points (15 played) – keeping their grip on a Champions League place and preserving daylight in the top-three race (they’re**+4** on Chelsea and**+5** on Arsenal Women, though both have games in hand).
Leicester City remain10th on9 points (14 played) – justone point above West Ham United andtwoabove bottom club Liverpool , so it keeps them firmly in the relegation playoff scrap.
Retrospection
Our preview made Manchester United Women clear favourites (62% win) with “0–2” the most likely scoreline – and it landed.
Arsenal 1–0 Manchester City
Venue: Emirates Stadium (London) | Attendance: 39,155
Arsenal secured a crucial 1–0 win over Manchester City at Emirates Stadium to keep the Champions League chase alive, as Olivia Smith finished in the 17th minute after a defence-splitting pass from Mariona Caldentey. City pressed for an equaliser after the break, but Arsenal held firm to secure the clean sheet and three points. In a clash of the league’s best attack against its best defence, the defence prevailed.
Key Stats
Arsenal dominated the attacking metrics – 1.55 xG is nearly four times City’s 0.39 – built primarily through open play (1.43 xG; 92% of their total) rather than set-pieces.
City registered 22 touches in the opposition box compared to Arsenal’s 19, yet failed to convert this territorial advantage into quality chances – zero big chances created and just 1 shot on target all match - only the 2nd they have just one shot on target this season.
Arsenal paired their xG dominance with clinical finishing: 1.71 xGOT translated into 1 goal, whilst City’s poor shot execution (0.07 xGOT from 0.39 xG) left them toothless in attack.
Implications
Arsenal stay 4th on 29 pts (14 played), but the win keeps the UEFA Women's Champions League chase very much alive – they’re 1 point off Chelsea in 3rd (30 pts) and 2 points off Manchester United in 2nd (31 pts), with a game in hand on both. In other words: win that game in hand and they’d move into the top three – and potentially up to 2nd.
City remain top, but this defeat ends their league winning run after 13 consecutive wins.
Retrospection
This was a relatively tight call on paper (49% Arsenal). Our prematch model leaned home – and the result agreed, with 1–0 landing as one of the most likely scorelines we highlighted.
Liverpool 4–1 Aston Villa
Venue: Totally Wicked Stadium | Attendance: 2,587
Liverpool produced a ruthless, performance to beat Aston Villa 4–1 and climb off the bottom of the table. Mia Enderby (9’) and Martha Thomas (14’) put them in early control. Villa pulled one back through Miri Taylor (41’), but Liverpool managed the second half far better, restoring their cushion late on through Grace Fisk (83’) before Aurélie Csillag added a stoppage-time fourth (90+7’) to seal a statement win in the relegation playoff battle.
Key Stats
For a second straight weekend, Liverpool’s attacking output has spiked well above their baseline – 1.54 xG vs 0.91 season average (≈1.7×), 11 shots vs 7.6, and 5 SoT vs 2.4 – and it translated into a clear outcome: a 4–1 win over Aston Villa.
Villa had slightly more of the ball (52% possession) but far less bite where it matters – 13 box touches vs 21.6 season average (≈0.6×), 0 big chances (vs 1.87), and just 0.57 xG vs 1.27 (≈0.45×). That’s possession without punch.
Villa have now lost three on the bounce – their first three-game losing run in the league this season.
Implications
Liverpool move up to 11th on 10 points (15 played), climbing out of 12th and the relegation play-off spot, but the margin is still razor-thin – Leicester City sit 12th on 9 points (14 played) with a game in hand, so one result can swing the bottom two again.
For Aston Villa, the defeat keeps them 8th on 16 points, the cushion to the bottom is still there, but another week like this starts dragging them into the wider survival conversation.
Retrospection
This was the most difficult call of the weekend: the model had the sides essentially level (31 – 38 – 31), so it could have broken either way. It also projected a cagey game, but the outcome completely diverged – Liverpool turned a match expected to be tight into a4–1 rout.
London City Lionesses 0–1 Everton
Venue: Hayes Lane (CopperJax Community Stadium) | Attendance: TBC
Everton ground out a vital away win, with Inma Gabarro striking the only goal (62’) to settle a tight contest. London City had spells where they asked questions, but Everton’s defensive work (and an excellent display from Courtney Brosnan in goal) kept it a clean sheet and a big three points.
Key Stats
London City Lionesses piled on pressure – 17 shots (+6.5 vs their season average), 14 chances created (nearly double their season average) and 26 box touches (vs 21.3) – but still produced 0 big chances (vs 2.07). Lots of asking questions, not enough clear questions.
Set-piece heavy – but it didn’t pay off: London City generated 0.77 set-piece xG – 65% of their total 1.19 xG – yet came away scoreless. Their best route to goal was dead balls, but Everton survived every wave.
Everton were ruthless in the moments that matter: they had fewer shots (8) and less territory (45% possession), but created the only big chance (1–0) and took the match. Second time this season they’ve won like this – under pressure, but clinical.
Implication
Everton’s win moves them to9th on14 pts (15 played), giving them tangible breathing room above the12th-place relegation play-off spot – they’refive points clear of Leicester City (9 pts), albeit with Leicester still holding agame in hand.
For London City Lionesses, it’s a missed opportunity to consolidate in the top half – they remain6th on19 pts (15 played), and the gap to5th (Tottenham on 26) is still sizeable.
Retrospection
The model leaned home (49 – 32 – 19), with the most likely outcomes clustering around a low-scoring grind (1–0 / 0–0 / 1–1). The game state largely matched that cagey expectation. The divergence was the direction of the decisive moment: Everton had the only big chance and took it. The model got the “tight, low-margin match” right – it just backed the wrong side to finish the one defining moment.
West Ham United 3 – 2 Brighton
Venue: Victoria Road | Attendance: TBC
West Ham completed a stunning late turnaround, trailing 0 – 2 after Kiko Seike’s 40’ opener and Manuela Vanegas’s 63’ strike. Two goals in four minutes from Ffion Morgan (82’) and Shekiera Martinez (86’) levelled it, before Viviane Asseyi bundled in the winner at 90+1’ to seal a huge three points.
Key Stats
West Ham United’s chance quality went through the roof. They posted 3.50 xG – roughly three times their season average (1.16) – with 7 shots on target (more than double their 3.4 average) and 4 big chances (vs 1.13). Even with the late drama, this was a huge output.
Brighton had the ball (53% possession) but created very little – 0.44 xG (vs 1.30 season average), just 8 shots, and only 1 big chance. Their two goals came despite an attacking output miles below their usual level.
Brighton had more possession, but West Ham owned the dangerous moments – 14 shots to 8, 7 SoT to 4, and 4 big chances to 1. The 3–2 scoreline was chaotic, but the underlying chance profile was heavily West Ham.
Implications
West Ham United stay 10th on 11 pts (15 played) – a huge win emotionally, but the table impact is still knife-edge: they’re only 1 point above Liverpool (10 pts) and 2 points above Leicester City in the 12th-place play-off spot (9 pts), with Leicester also holding a game in hand.
For Brighton, they stay 7th on 17 pts, but the cushion is thinning fast – they’re now only one point above 8th (Aston Villa on 16). A collapse like this doesn’t just drop points, it drags them back into the mid-table scrap rather than pulling away.
Retrospection
The model favoured a Brighton win (15 – 29 – 56) and expected them to control the outcome. For 80 minutes, the scoreboard agreed – Brighton were 2–0 up. But the underlying performance never matched a “56% away win” profile, and it eventually caught up with them –0.44 xG and1 big chance isn’t enough to survive that kind of pressure for 90 minutes.
Tottenham Hotspur 0 – 2 Chelsea
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium | Attendance: 9,356
Chelsea returned to winning ways after back-to-back defeats. Tottenham started brightly, but Walsh struck on 39 minutes to give Chelsea the lead. Thompson finished from close range four minutes after the restart (49’) to double it, and from there Chelsea managed the game with far more authority – controlling the second half and seeing out the clean sheet.
Key Stats
Same xG, different outcome: Tottenham Hotspur generated 1.83 xG and 3 big chances – and came out with nothing. Chelsea put up 1.86 xG with 4 big chances and finished the job (2 goals). This was a finishing swing, not a chance-creation gap.
Chelsea controlled the game state: 62% possession to 38%, and 33 touches in the opposition box to 19. Spurs had moments, but Chelsea spent far more time in the attacking zones that usually decide matches.
Spurs were above their own attacking baseline: 15 shots (vs 11.3 avg), 10 chances created (vs 7.5), 3 big chances (vs 1.87) – the process was there, the conversion wasn’t.
Implications
Chelsea’s win keeps them 3rd on 30 pts (15 played), just 1 point behind Manchester United in 2nd (31), and 1 point ahead of Arsenal in 4th (29) – with Arsenal still holding a game in hand, so the race for those places remains extremely tight.
For Tottenham Hotspur, the defeat leaves them 5th on 26 pts (15 played) and losing contact with the Champions League spots – now 4 points off Chelsea in 3rd and 3 points off Arsenal in 4th (with Arsenal still a game down). It keeps Spurs firmly in the “best of the rest” bracket rather than the genuine top-three chase, for now.
Retrospection
This was the model’s strongest lean of the weekend – it backed Chelsea (13 – 16 – 71) and even had0–2 sitting in the most likely scorelines. The result agreed: Chelsea won2–0 and, once they went ahead, managed the game with the kind of control you’d expect from a 71% favourite.
Expected Points – MW15: West Ham surge, Arsenal back to 2nd
The standout xPts swing of the weekend came from West Ham United – a +2.81 jump that matches what the underlying numbers suggested. Although they won late, they comprehensivelydominated on chance quality. At the top, Arsenal’s statement win pushes them back to 2nd on xPts (29.30) (+2.24), after swapping places with Chelsea last weekend. Manchester City remain clear xPts leaders (33.60), while Manchester United (+2.04) and Liverpool (+2.09) also posted “big weekend” underlying gains.
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