Aston Villa's results in their next three Premier League matches could be season-defining
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery(Image: PA)
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Unai Emery needs Villa Park to be at its brilliant best to build momentum in a crucial part of the season.
Aston Villa’s next three matches are all at home, with an FA Cup fourth-round tie against Newcastle United sandwiched between key league fixtures against Brighton and Leeds United.
Despite failing to hold onto a lead against Bournemouth on Sunday, Villa actually gained ground on sixth-placed Liverpool, with fifth position expected to be enough to qualify for the Champions League this season.
The Reds, however, were just five points behind Villa when Dominik Szoboszlai scored a stunner against Manchester City before Pep Guardiola's side came back to earn three points themselves.
That leaves Liverpool eight points behind Villa, with an inferior goal difference too, and 13 matches left to play in this campaign.
Emery has been dealt several injury setbacks in recent weeks, with Boubacar Kamara missing for the rest of the season, Youri Tielemans out for another five weeks and John McGinn sidelined until March.
Results have also dipped, notably at home, with defeats to both Everton and Brentford either side of an impressive 2-0 victory at Newcastle.
Villa have enjoyed a sizeable buffer to the teams beneath them for a little while now, but they have given opportunities to the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United to close the gap.
Only United, under Michael Carrick, have accepted that invitation, winning their last four league games. Liverpool, meanwhile, have only won four league matches since the start of December.
Right now, Liverpool are the team that matter most in Villa’s bid to finish in the Champions League places, simply because finishing fifth is set to bring the same sporting reward as ending the season in third.
Villa’s next three league games are against Brighton and Leeds at home, before visiting bottom club Wolves before March arrives.
Liverpool are away to Sunderland and relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest before hosting another struggling side, West Ham.
After losing to Everton and Brentford at home, it goes without saying that no Villa fan can simply expect wins in the next two league games against Brighton and Leeds, but it represents a huge opportunity before taking on Wolves.
Villa have won seven of their last nine Premier League games against Brighton and are looking to complete the double over them for the third time after 2022-23 and 2023-24. The Seagulls have won just one of their six Premier League away games against Villa, conceding at least twice in each of the five they failed to win.
Their manager, Fabian Hürzeler, is also under huge pressure after facing chants of “you’re getting sacked in the morning” from his own supporters in Sunday’s home defeat to rivals Crystal Palace.
Only four teams have lost more away league games than Brighton this season, while only two have suffered more defeats than Leeds, whom Villa face after the south coast club.
Although they’ve improved, facing Wolves should still represent a big chance to earn another victory - one of the seven Emery’s side need to all but confirm a fifth-placed finish.
After collecting 47 points so far, seven more wins would put Villa on 68, which has been enough to finish in the top five in each of the last six Premier League seasons.
For Liverpool to reach 68 points, they would need to win nine matches and draw two from their last 13, or win 10 to reach 69.
For Villa, the prospect of having 10 games left to play and needing only four wins from their remaining matches is a huge incentive to take maximum points from the next three league fixtures.
Man United, like Liverpool, also play away from home in their next two, against West Ham and Everton, before hosting Crystal Palace.
Chelsea, meanwhile, host Leeds and Burnley before travelling to Arsenal.
What’s interesting is that after Villa’s next three games against Brighton, Leeds and Wolves, they host Chelsea and then travel to face Man United at Old Trafford.
Maximum points before those matches would ensure Villa could deal a blow to Chelsea’s hopes of finishing above them if they carry momentum into next month.
Morgan Rogers of Aston Villa
Morgan Rogers of Aston Villa(Image: James Marsh/Shutterstock)
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Travelling to Old Trafford has brought very little joy for Villa down the years, but they did win at St James’ Park and took a solid point from Selhurst Park last month.
I didn’t plan to get too carried away looking at the next cluster of games, but it’s true that the next match is always the most important.
Emery’s team, depleted by injuries, need and deserve a bouncing atmosphere at Villa Park on Wednesday night when Brighton come to town.
February could be the last month in which Villa do not play in the Europa League again this season, with the knockout rounds starting in March, so it’s crucial they make the most of that luxury.
Starting it with one point from six is not ideal, but strong results in the next three will go some way to securing a top-five place come May.
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