San Antonio Spurs Victor Wembayama v Oklahoma City Thunder
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A bold post-deadline prediction has the Spurs positioned as a real threat atop the Western Conference.
The San Antonio Spurs are no longer just a feel-good rebuild story. They are a legitimate contender for the top seed in the Western Conference.
Riding a four-game winning streak, San Antonio sits second in the West at 36–16, just 3.5 games behind the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. Despite a quiet NBA trade deadline, a bold post-deadline prediction suggests the Spurs may finish the regular season ahead of Oklahoma City.
In a recent piece for Bleacher Report, NBA writer Greg Swartz projected San Antonio to claim the No. 1 seed entering the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
“The Spurs are young, hungry and eager to prove they belong in the playoffs,” Swartz wrote. “The Thunder are coming off a title and won’t take the remainder of the regular season quite so seriously, using extra caution with their banged-up stars. San Antonio will finish with the No. 1 seed in the West, adding more fuel to the NBA’s hottest young rivalry.”
Scales Quickly Turning in the Spurs’ Favor
That rivalry has tilted San Antonio’s way this season. The Spurs won the season series 4-1, including a 116-106 victory on Feb. 4 in which Victor Wembanyama dominated with 22 points, 14 rebounds, and two blocks.
That win came against a depleted Thunder lineup missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. Still, the Spurs’ consistency across five meetings reinforced a growing belief that this matchup is no longer one-sided.
More importantly, San Antonio’s success has not been schedule-driven. According to CraftedNBA, the Spurs have faced the third-hardest strength of schedule in the league so far, trailing only New Orleans and Sacramento. Oklahoma City, by contrast, has played the ninth-easiest slate to this point.
Those roles are about to reverse. After the All-Star break, the Thunder are projected to face the seventh-hardest remaining schedule, while San Antonio sits eighth. On paper, that difference is marginal. In reality, it could be decisive.
Gilgeous-Alexander is sidelined until after the All-Star break with an abdominal strain, and the Thunder’s splits tell the story. Oklahoma City is 38-11 with him in the lineup and just 2-2 without him. While Williams is expected to return against the Los Angeles Lakers, backup point guard Ajay Mitchell remains out with a similar injury.
San Antonio, meanwhile, enters the stretch run healthy and confident—two traits rarely shared by young teams.
Built the Spurs Way
The Spurs’ belief is not manufactured. It is internal and consistent, starting with Wembanyama.
“We trust who we are,” Wembanyama said after San Antonio’s win over the Dallas Mavericks. “We trust the process. What I love is that the front office trusts these guys just like I do. We’re on the same page.”
That trust has translated into results. Through 51 games, San Antonio has already surpassed last season’s win total and eclipsed its mark from Wembanyama’s rookie year by Christmas Day.
Guard De’Aaron Fox echoed that internal standard.
“We have aspirations of winning a championship,” Fox said. “Some might say we’re a little ahead of schedule, but at the end of the day, we have to continue to grow.”
San Antonio did not flip Jeremy Sochan or Kelly Olynyk at the deadline, nor did it chase short-term floor spacing. That restraint aligns with organizational history. Outside of the Fox acquisition, their most surprising move in two decades, the Spurs rarely swing midseason.
What they have built instead is balance. San Antonio ranks 10th in offensive rating and third in defensive rating, with eight players averaging double figures. Rookie guard Dylan Harper (10.7 PPG) continues to flash alongside Fox and Stephon Castle in a versatile backcourt.
The Spurs may still be ahead of schedule. But schedule, health, and belief are now aligned. That combination makes Swartz’s bold prediction feel less like a reach and more like a warning to the rest of the West.