Should you triple captain Arsenal’s Gabriel in Gameweek 26? Our FPL expert takes a lookplaceholder image
Should you triple captain Arsenal’s Gabriel in Gameweek 26? Our FPL expert takes a look | Getty Images
Should Fantasy Premier League players triple captain Arsenal’s Gabriel this week? Our resident expert looks at an intriguing decision.
It’s an idea that’s been floating around the online Fantasy Premier League community for days now – as Arsenal head into a double gameweek with matches against Brentford and Wolves, should players consider using their second triple captain chip on Gabriel Magalhães? Could it really be the right move to risk that chip on a defender?
With Bukayo Saka likely to miss at least the first of Arsenal’s two games due to a groin strain, the obvious candidate for the armband isn’t really a sensible consideration – but triple captaining a defender runs contrary to the learned instincts of millions of FPL players. But do the stats and situation back it up as a good idea?
Why making Gabriel your triple captain in FPL Gameweek 26 might make sense
The first reaction many FPL players will have to the idea of using a triple captain chip on a defender is to think that there simply must a better place to use it over the remaining weeks – but that may not necessarily be the case.
There will be double gameweeks in Gameweek 33 due to the FA Cup semi-finals, and they may contain some juicy fixtures for blue chip players. That week will also likely be where Manchester City’s game against Crystal Palace, which is getting moved around for the EFL Cup final, will wind up. A triple captain chip on Erling Haaland seems like a much safer bet.
But then again, that near-certain double gameweek comes right between two likely blanks, and that suggests that this is the time of the season when players will really need to use their free hits and wildcards to maximise their returns – and with Gameweek 33 likely to be the busiest double gameweek barring unexpected postponements due to freak weather or the like, it’s also a great target for a bench boost. The planning will vary from player to player, but there may not be many more tempting targets for a triple captain.
There will probably be a double gameweek in Gameweek 36, too, but that’s for the FA Cup final and we have no way to know who will be involved. It could easily be Arsenal or Manchester City and that could easily be a better time to use a triple on Saka or Haaland, but it’s not nailed on by any means. The reality could present much weaker options.
In that context, the choice for most players is to triple captain now, when it can be used on a high-scoring player on a double gameweek with two relatively reasonable fixtures (away to Brentford and Wolves), or to either take a chance on Gameweek 36 or to use the chip on a player like Haaland during a single gameweek. And he’s already played Wolves and Burnley at home.
In context, then, triple captaining Gabriel – an extremely reliable points scorer – isn’t a gamble at all. It’s actually the safe bet. There may be a better time to use the chip but it’s far from certain, and the double gameweek puts a relatively high ceiling on his returns.
This is, after all, the fifth highest scoring player in the entire game despite the fact that he missed six weeks of the season. Gabriel averages 7.5 points per start, the highest average score in the entire game – more than Haaland, more than Saka, more than Fernandes, more than everyone. Captaining Gabriel isn’t a risk at all. Not that that makes it a surefire move.
The argument against making Gabriel your triple captain
It would be a surprise if Arsenal didn’t keep at least one clean sheet given the reliability of their defence as a whole, but stranger things have happened than the Gunners shipping goals on the road at Wolves or Brentford, the latter of which have been up and down at home but have ultimately scored 23 goals in 12 games at the G-Tech Community Stadium. Only four teams have scored more goals at home than the Bees.
Then again, there’s no real difference in the odds against Arsenal failing to keep a clean sheet and Haaland blanking in any given match. Mathematically, the numbers suggest that triple captaining Gabriel is an eminently sensible choice. He has been more likely to rack up points than the Manchester City striker in any given week, and is surely nailed on for 90 minutes in both games barring injury. Arsenal have also only conceded nine goals away from home all season.
His floor, then, is at least as high as that of Haaland or another attacking player. There’s only one real question mark here – is his ceiling high enough? What are the chances that he scores not just, say, 12 points for a couple of clean sheets, but 20 points after scoring a goal?
The Brazilian has often been the focal point of Arsenal’s corner and free-kick routines, and as such picked up the goals and assists which pushed his stats up to the point which he became the highest-scoring player in the FPL on a game-by-game basis. He hasn’t provided a goal contribution in any of Arsenal’s last five Premier League matches, however, or any of his last nine appearances in all competitions.
Perhaps because teams adapted to Arsenal’s set-piece plays and started marking Gabriel more effectively, he seems to have become less of a threat in the box. That suggests that his ceiling is dropping.
Overall, then, making Gabriel your triple captain makes plenty of sense as a safe and sensible option, especially if you still have all your remaining chips to spend on the double in Gameweek 33 – but if you’re chasing the highest possible score and looking to make up ground in your mini-leagues rather than protecting a lead, there will probably be better gambling options down the line.
This is a decision which comes down to how you need to play the final dozen weeks of the season. It’s not only a defensible plan to spend that chip on Gabriel, but a good one. It also happens to be a relatively conservative play, even if common FPL thinking suggests that triple captaining a defender means taking a huge risk. Gabriel scores reliably and regularly, but there may be opportunities to go bigger down the line.
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