We look ahead to Thursday’s Premier League game at the Gtech Community Stadium with our Brentford vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Will Mikel Arteta’s side handle the pressure with Manchester City in striking distance?
Brentford vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer has Arsenal as favourites in its pre-match simulations. The Gunners are assigned a 55.6% win probability, compared to Brentford’s 22.3%.
Arsenal lost their first Premier League visit to Brentford but have since won their last three by an aggregate score of 7-1.
Brentford have won just one of their last 11 home London derbies in the Premier League (D6 L4) and are winless in seven since a 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace in August 2024.
When Dominik Szoboszlai’s stunning free-kick whistled past Gianluigi Donnarumma to put Liverpool in front against Manchester City on Sunday, Arsenal may have felt as though one hand was already on the Premier League title.
However, a Bernardo Silva goal was followed up by a 93rd-minute penalty from Erling Haaland, as the Gunners saw a potential nine-point lead at the top of the table reduced to six ahead of visiting Brentford on Thursday.
That could, of course, be as few as three points by the time they take to the field against the Bees, with Pep Guardiola’s side in action 24 hours earlier at home to Fulham, and Arsenal will no doubt be looking nervously over their shoulder.
Mikel Arteta’s team cruised to a 3-0 victory in their last top-flight outing against Sunderland, with Martín Zubimendi’s first-half strike followed by Viktor Gyökeres’ double after the break.
Questions have been asked of Gyökeres since his big-money move from Sporting CP in the summer, but the Sweden international has scored more goals across all competitions than any other Premier League player (six) in 2026.
He has also netted in back-to-back top-flight matches for the first time in his Arsenal career, though six of his eight Premier League goals have been against promoted sides.
Viktor Gyokeres xG map
He will need to be on top form against a Brentford side who have the unlikely ambition of claiming a European place in what is proving to be a stunning debut campaign for head coach Keith Andrews.
The Bees edged a five-goal thriller at St. James’ Park on Saturday, beating Newcastle United 3-2 thanks to Dango Ouattara’s late winner.
Brentford’s charge has been led by Igor Thiago, who netted his sixth penalty goal in the Premier League this season in the win over Newcastle. Only Kylian Mbappé (eight) and Nadiem Amiri (seven) have scored more spot-kicks across Europe’s top five leagues this season.
In addition, the Brazilian has scored nine goals in his last 10 Premier League home games, netting four braces in that run. Only Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (five) has scored multiple goals in more different home matches this term.
The Gtech Community Stadium has been a difficult place for teams to visit this season, with only Aston Villa, Manchester United (both eight), Man City (nine) and Arsenal (10) having more home league wins in 2025-26 than Brentford (seven, level with four other teams).
However, the Bees lost 2-0 to Nottingham Forest in their last home league game, ending a seven-game unbeaten run. Since the start of last term, they’ve lost consecutive home league games twice, the first time consisting of a 2-0 defeat to Forest followed by a loss to Arsenal.
And that run could be about to continue, given Brentford have won just one of their last 11 home London derbies in the Premier League (D6 L4) and are winless in seven since a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace in August 2024.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have thrived against teams from the capital. The Gunners have lost just one of their last 23 London derbies (W17 D5) in the league, and only one of their 20 most recent trips to fellow London sides (W14 D5) since the start of 2022-23.
Arteta has also won 41 of his 67 Premier League London derbies as manager, the best win rate (61%) of anyone to take charge of at least 20. Overall, only Arsène Wenger (106 from 194 games) and José Mourinho (42/70) have won more London derbies than the Spaniard.
It remains to be seen whether Bukayo Saka, who sustained a hip injury prior to Arsenal’s 4-0 win over Leeds United, will be involved, but if he is available, it would be no surprise if he had a say on proceedings.
That is because he has been involved in 35 goals in 63 Premier League London derbies (17 goals, 18 assists), the third most of any Arsenal player after Thierry Henry (55) and Dennis Bergkamp (38).
Brentford vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Brentford’s maiden Premier League victory came against Arsenal in their first game in the competition in August 2021, with Sergi Canos and Christian Nørgaard, who now plays for the Gunners, on target for Thomas Frank’s side.
Brentford v Arsenal xG map
Indeed, it saw Arsenal beaten by a promoted side in their opening league match of the season for the first time since 1976-77 against Bristol City at Highbury (W5 D2 in between).
Since then, however, Brentford are winless in eight against Arsenal (D2 L6).
After that defeat four years ago, Arteta’s Arsenal ended August 13 bottom of the Premier League for the first time since 9 August 2015, when they lost 2-0 to West Ham.
However, things are different now in north London. The Gunners have won their last three away games against Brentford by an aggregate score of 7-1.
Brentford vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal’s dominance in this fixture looks set to continue, at least according to the Opta supercomputer, with the Gunners taking all three points in 55.6% of its data-led simulations.
Brentford’s chances of victory are assigned a 22.3% probability, while the likelihood of the spoils being shared at Gtech Community Stadium are rated slightly lower at 22.1%.
Brentford vs Arsenal Prediction Opta
Brentford vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Brentford: Caoimhin Kelleher, Michael Kayode, Kristoffer Ajer, Sven van den Berg, Rico Henry, Yehor Yarmoliuk, Vitaly Janelt, Dango Ouattara, Mathias Jensen, Keane Lewis-Potter, Igor Thiago.
Head coach: Keith Andrews
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Piero Hincapié, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard, Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyökeres.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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