The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery marked the start of new odds, where the team with the worst record no longer had a 25 percent chance at the number one overall pick, but just 14 percent. The change was an attempt to discourage tanking in the latter portion of the regular season, but this season is a prime example of how it hasn’t worked as they’d hoped.
Given the Sacramento Kings’ (12-43) worst record in the NBA and Monday night’s 26-point loss to the 14th-seeded New Orleans Pelicans, they’re well within the race for ending the season at the top of the lottery odds. Sacramento has also dropped a single-season franchise record 13 consecutive games.
Each of the teams with the bottom three records — Indiana and Washington currently join Sacramento — will have an equal 14 percent change at lucking into the first overall selection. Yet, there’s still a clear benefit to ending the season with the worst overall record.
It’s not possible for a team to drop further than four spots below their standing coming into lottery night. For example, if the season were to end today, the Kings would have a 14 percent chance of getting the first pick, 13.4 percent at second, 12.7 percent at third, and their most likely scenario has 47.9 percent odds of landing at fifth.
If they were to drop to second, they could potentially fall to sixth, and so on. Here are the 2026 NBA Draft lottery odds based on records as of the conclusion of February 9th’s games, per Tankathon.
Tankathon.com 2026 NBA Draft Lottery Odds as of Feb. 9th, 2026
So, since those changes were implemented in 2019, how have the teams with the best odds fared? As you can probably guess based on those percentages, there’s been notable variance in where the team with the best odds ends up post-lottery.
In 2019, the Knicks had the best odds and fell to third as the Pelicans (7th-best odds) and Grizzlies (8th) leapfrogged them into first and second. One year later, Golden State had the worst record and finished second, while the Timberwolves (3rd) earned the first pick. The 2021 lottery was more tame as Detroit (2nd best odds) ended up first, the only team to surpass the Rockets, who owned the worst record.
It was a somewhat similar story in 2022, as the worst-seeded Rockets fell to third, while Orlando (2nd) and Oklahoma City (4th) jumped to the first two spots.
But in the three most recent seasons, the team with the worst record has walked away from the lottery with their worst possible outcome, the fifth overall pick. So, since the NBA flattened its lottery odds, the team with the worst record has yet to come away with the first pick in the lottery. Here’s a simpler look at how the top four picks have panned out.
Previous NBA Draft Lottery Outcomes
2019: 1st Pick- New Orleans (7th best odds), 2nd – Memphis (8th), 3rd – New York (1st), 4th – Los Angeles Lakers (11th)
2020: 1st- Minnesota (3rd), 2nd – Golden State (2nd), 3rd – Charlotte (8th), 4th – Chicago (7th)
2021: 1st – Detroit (2nd), 2nd – Houston (1st), 3rd – Cleveland (5th), 4th – Toronto (7th)
2022: 1st – Orlando (2nd), 2nd – Oklahoma City (4th), 3rd – Houston (1st), 4th – Sacramento (7th)
2023: 1st – San Antonio (3rd), 2nd- Charlotte (4th), 3rd – Portland (5th), 4th – Houston (2nd)
2024: 1st – Atlanta (10th), 2nd – Washington (2nd), 3rd – Brooklyn (9th), 4th – San Antonio (5th)
2025: 1st – Dallas (11th), 2nd- San Antonio (8th), 3rd – Philadelphia (5th), 4th – Charlotte (3rd)
The team with the worst record that season has yet to win the lottery in that time, while second and third place have each lucked into the first overall selection on two occasions. The most jarring jump to the first overall pick came last season as the Mavericks 1.8 percent chance at selection Cooper Flagg came to fruition, drastically changing their franchise’s future outlook.
There’s no real science to the ping pong balls, so take that for what it’s worth and keep in mind the value of having the worst record — not being able to fall further than fifth. In the seven seasons since changing the odds, the team with the worst record has finished with the fifth overall pick on all but three occasions.
With the 2026 Draft largely viewed as having four players in the top tier between freshmen Darryn Peterson (Kansas), AJ Dybansta (BYU), Cameron Boozer (Duke), and Caleb Wilson (UNC), Sacramento’s front office will have to hold its breath and hope luck is on its side come lottery day.
Maybe the team with the worst odds is due to remain at their spot? There are still extremely promising prospects after the four mentioned, with plenty of the league’s recent MVPs being later lottery selections — or even in the second round, in the case of Nikola Jokic.
May 10th will be a monumental day for the Kings franchise.
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When is the next Sacramento Kings game?
The Sacramento Kings will play their final game before the All-Star break on Wednesday night against the Utah Jazz.
With a loss, Sacramento would tie the 1971-72 Cincinnati Royals for a franchise-record 14th consecutive loss.
Be sure to catch all of the Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz action right here on Sactown Sports 1140 AM, with pregame coverage beginning at 4:30 PM PT on Game Night before a 6:00 pm PT tip-off from downtown Salt Lake City.
Upcoming Sacramento Kings schedule for the 2025-26 season
Wednesday, February 11th – @ Utah Jazz – 6:00 PM PT
Thursday, February 19th vs. Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM PT
Saturday, February 21st @ San Antonio Spurs – 5:00 PM PT
Monday, February 23rd @ Memphis Grizzlies – 5:00 PM PT
Wednesday, February 25th – @ Houston Rockets – 5:00 PM PT
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