What’s going on with The Mandalorian and Grogu? A lot has been made of the movie’s marketing campaign, especially after the Super Bowl 2026 TV spot, which caused a million voices to cry out in terror confusion. The decision to use a very expensive Big Game slot on a parody of old beer commercials was certainly a choice, and while it’s fun enough in isolation, it’s part of a wider problem with the marketing for the film. Which is to say that there’s a clear lack of hype, and concerns over how it’s being sold to general audiences, which is all the weirder given Lucasfilm and Disney do have a solution.
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The problem with The Mandalorian & Grogu‘s Super Bowl spot isn’t just that it’s a parody, without any actual footage from the film itself, but that it’s a trend of lackluster marketing. The first trailer wasn’t well received, and with just over three months until release, this was one it needed to knock out of the park to boost confidence in the movie. One possible fix for this lies with the footage they showed at Star Wars Celebration Japan back in April 2025, and it’s very confusing to me as to why they haven’t just released it.
I was lucky enough to be in attendance at the event last year, and while any Mando footage would’ve been a treat for the crowd given it was over one year from release, what we got was actually pretty great. It had some funny and cute moments, but what was most notable was that it started with a minute-long action scene that takes place inside an AT-AT, with Imperial panic as Din Djarin breaks in and begins laying waste to a bunch of Snowtroopers (a couple of elements from the sequence have since been used, but not the full thing).
Maybe it was the excitement of being in the room, but the action was awesome: it turned the Mandalorian into a one-man wrecking crew, it was kinetic and fast-paced but clean, made great use of his different weapons (his flamethrower was a real highlight), and overall it was a thrilling sequence that, importantly, felt cinematic. The crowd naturally loved it, and it made it seem like Disney had a hit on its hands, and one it was confident in at that.
Almost one year on, and it’s the only thing I’ve seen from the movie that achieves that. I think it would’ve been a perfect sequence either for the first trailer, or even more so for a Super Bowl spot, with a couple of cute scenes of Grogu mixed in for good measure. If it can’t sell the film on its story, then it can at least sell it on looking undeniably cool and a clear upgrade on the Disney+ show, and that’s exactly what this footage did.
How Concerned Should We Be About The Mandalorian & Grogu?
Din Djarin and Grogu in The Mandalorian and Grogu Super Bowl spot
Image via Lucasfilm
There’s still time for Disney to turn things around with The Mandalorian and Grogu, especially if the next, full trailer lands well, but right now that feels like a big if. The Super Bowl spot has at least sparked plenty of discussion about the movie, and with that comes increased awareness, but it’s also not the kind that they would’ve hoped for: it’s division and confusion, rather than everyone in unison about it being cool, funny, cute, and exciting.
One of the big hopes is that a lot is being held back. After all, there’s still very little we know about the movie’s plot and villain(s), so it’s possible there are some bigger spoilers that Lucasfilm is holding onto, and they might start teasing more of that to spice things up. That is possible, and it’d be great if there is more, but it does increasingly feel as though there’s not a whole lot here to hook audiences with (which, again, makes it more surprising the Celebration action sequence hasn’t been shown to the public).
The other big hope is that this will be a real success with families, driven by kids who want to go and see Grogu in theaters. Again, this is possible, and there’s a real desire for these kind of family-friendly movies that can lead to them performing (or even overperforming) at the box office, so appealing to that demographic isn’t a bad idea if it can achieve it – I’m just not sure the Super Bowl spot does that. The comparison being used a lot is Lilo & Stitch, which had a spot last year of Stitch invading the game, before grossing over $1 billion at the box office. That, however, overlooks a lot of differences between the two:
Lilo & Stitch was a remake, so people knew the story. No one has a clue what The Mandalorian & Grogu‘s story is.
Lilo & Stitch’s Super Bowl ad was very well received, with 173m digital views in 24 hours and a consensus that it was fun and adorable. Mando‘s is far more divisive, and doesn’t appear to have anywhere near the same reach.
The Lilo & Stitch ad made more sense, as it built on the tradition of Stitch invading Disney movies from the original marketing, which they continued with the remake. Mando‘s was… some old beer commercials.
Lilo & Stitch ‘s target audience is different. It’s primarily families, and kids in particular, with an adult nostalgia factor (driven by huge increase in popularity in that movie in recent years). The Mandalorian and Grogu has to target those groups, of course, but adults, particularly millennials and older, are core demos for Star Wars that aren’t being adequately reached.
Grogu is not Stitch. I absolutely love the Child, and have plenty of merch myself, but he’s not even in the same stratosphere. Stitch merchandise is an absolutely insane moneymaker for Disney: in the fiscal year 2024, Lilo & Stitch merch made around $2.6bn for the Mouse House, a figure that’s more comparable to the merch sales for Star Wars as a whole, and that was before the live-action movie boosted it further (it jumped to an estimated $4bn in 2025). Stitch is closer to Mickey Mouse than he is to Grogu (a visit to any Disneyland will confirm it, he’s everywhere).
Still, hopefully the appeal of Grogu and a bigger, more exciting trailer can overcome the current odds. And, of course, there’s the budget: at a reported $166m production cost, The Mandalorian & Grogu is the cheapest Star Wars movie of the Disney era. That gives it an easier path to success, as hitting around the $400m mark should be enough for it to at least breakeven.
Even that, though, is a damning reflection of where we’re at. Star Wars movies should feel like cultural events, so box office success should be a given, and yet this just doesn’t have that yet. Worse, that one minute in April 2025 aside, it’s provided nothing to get excited about, especially after the underwhelming third season of the TV show. I’d love it to be both a great movie and a great hit, because it helps put Star Wars back on the path to the cinematic saga it should be, but right now I’ve got a bad feeling about this.
The Mandalorian and Grogu will be released in theaters on May 22nd, 2026.
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