Ten mostly data-flavored Heat questions and answers at the All-Star break:
▪ With Miami at 29-27 and No. 8 in the East, what’s the great unknown of the second half of the season?
Whether the anticipated offensive lift provided by Tyler Herro’s eventual return can help ignite a push for the sixth seed. The other issue: What’s the best way for coach Erik Spoelstra to use Herro and Norman Powell?
The perception is that the Herro/Powell combo doesn’t work because Miami is 3-5 when they have played in the same game, including an impressive 140-123 romp against the Clippers and a win against Phoenix, but also narrow losses to the Pistons and Celtics and two embarrassing defeats to Minnesota (122-94) and Indiana (123-99).
Those Timberwolves and Pacers debacles and the overall 3-5 record when both suit up probably skewed perception. The Powell/Herro combination hasn’t been awful together; Miami has outscored teams by 14 points during 143 minutes when they’re on the court at the same time.
The Heat averages 123.5 points per game when they’re on the court together — a figure that would lead the league by three points.
But a starting group of Bam Adebayo; Andrew Wiggins; Powell or Herro; and two among Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson and Davion Mitchell might be the best approach. (One of those combinations with Powell and Wiggins has been especially productive, as explained below.)
Bringing Herro or Powell off the bench would provide firepower with the second unit and is something Spoelstra probably should consider.
▪ What has been the Heat’s best heavy-usage five-man lineup?
Adebayo, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic and Simone Fontecchio is a plus-57 in 78 minutes, while the Wiggins, Powell, Adebayo, Herro, Mitchell quintet is a plus-27 in 94 minutes and shot 50.3% from the field.
▪ What has been the worst heavy-usage five-man lineup?
Wiggins, Powell, Adebayo, Larsson and Jakucionis; that group is a minus-28 in 71 minutes.
▪ Where does the Heat rank in key areas?
Miami is 17th in offensive rating (113.7 points per 100 possessions), fourth in defensive rating (111.6 points allowed per 100 possessions), fifth in assist to turnover ratio (2.0 to 1), fourth best in turnover percentage (13.5 per game), 13th in rebounding differential, 24th in blocks per game (4.2), 21st in field-goal percentage (46.1), 14th in free-throw percentage (78.7) and 14th in three-point percentage (36).
▪ Who has been the Heat’s best 1-on-1 defender, per NBA.com data?
Among players who have played at least 40 games, Smith has held the player he’s guarding to the lowest shooting percentage on the team — 43.4%, 2.5 points less than they shoot overall.
Shooting percentages are naturally going to be higher against power rotation players, because they’re defending more interior shots. And Bam Adebayo has been excellent, allowing the player he’s guarding to shoot 43.9% against him, compared to the 48.2 they shoot overall.
Fontecchio also has been very solid, permitting a 43.6 shooting percentage (second between Smith and Adebayo among high-usage players).
▪ Who has allowed the highest shooting percentage on the team?
Powell at 52 percent; those same players are shooting 46.4 overall this season. Among all NBA starting guards who have defended at least 200 shots, only Jeremiah Fears, Johnny Furphy and DeMar DeRozan have allowed higher shooting percentages against the player they’re guarding.
Rookie Jakucionis is permitting the player he defends to shoot 49.3%; those players shoot 46.3 percent overall.
▪ Who has been the best Heat player in the clutch?
Among players who have taken more than 10 shots in the clutch (defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer), Andrew Wiggins has shot by far the best — 57.1% from the field (12 for 21) and an absurd 66.7 on threes (8 for 12).
The flip side is that Miami has been outscored by 20 in his 67 clutch minutes.
Among lower volume clutch shot-takers, Kel’el Ware is 4 for 6 with seven rebounds in 19 clutch minutes. Pelle Larsson is 6 for 10 in 30 clutch minutes.
▪ Who has been the Heat’s worst shooter in the clutch?
Adebayo, by far. He’s 8 for 28 (28.6%) in the clutch, including 3 for 11 on threes. Miami has been outscored by 29 points in his 56 clutch minutes, which is the worst on the team. This is reflective of the fact that Adebayo must carry too big an offensive load down the stretch because of Herro’s injury and Miami’s need for an elite offensive talent.
▪ What about the Heat overall in the clutch?
Miami, which was poor in the clutch last season, has been outscored by 15 points in clutch minutes, which is 22nd in the league and better than only one other current top-eight seed (Denver).
Miami is shooting 43.5% in the clutch (16th) and 37% on clutch threes (which is eighth). Wiggins is largely responsible for the Heat’s better-than-usual clutch three-point shooting.
The Heat is 13-11 in games with clutch minutes and is the NBA’s third-worst rebounding team in the clutch.
▪ When can the Heat add more players if it wants without grave financial consequences?
Immediately. Thursday was the first day that the Heat — without risk of surpassing the luxury tax threshold this season — could fill one open roster spot with a minimum contract, release Terry Rozier, and sign a second minimum contract player to that roster spot.
For the Heat, those three moves could be as simple as converting Myron Gardner from a two-way contract to a standard contract, releasing Rozier (who will get his entire $26.9 million salary whether he’s on the team or not) and using his slot to a sign a developmental player or a player who shakes free in the buyout market.