At the end of January, we published our first mock draft database of the season. At the time, 21 of the 25 mocks (84%) were projecting the Cowboys to take a linebacker, with Sonny Styles (17 mocks, 68%) the clear favorite. The second most popular position was cornerback with 15 picks (60%), followed by edge rushers with 11 picks (44%). The early consensus seemed to be LB Sonny Styles with the 12th pick and a CB with the 20th pick, a combo offered by 10 of the 25 mocks or 40% of the time.
But a lot has happened since then: The Super Bowl came and went, this year’s salary cap was announced, the Senior Bowl is behind us, and the Cowboys look to have completed their coaching hires, so it’s again time to turn our attention to the very serious business of mock drafting.
On the hypothesis that the predictive value of multiple mock drafts is greater than that of a single mock, we are taking a survey of 40 different mock drafts today. Importantly, all 40 mocks were published on or after February 1st, giving us a big data set of the latest mock drafts. And here are all those 40 mocks, and which two players they have the Cowboys selecting.
Mock Draft Player (12th) Position College Player (20th) Position College Last Updated
NFL.com (Parr) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Cashius Howell EDGE Teaxas A&M 12-Feb
Fox Sports (Rang) Mansoor Delane CB LSU Gabe Jacas EDGE Illinois 12-Feb
NBCSports (Dvorchak) Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn Brandon Cisse CB South Carolina 11-Feb
CBSSports (Podell) Mansoor Delane CB LSU Cashius Howell EDGE Teaxas A&M 11-Feb
ESPN (Yates) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn 11-Feb
Draft Countdown (Staff) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Monroe Freeling OT Georgia 11-Feb
The Big Lead (Risdon) T.J. Parker EDGE Clemson Caleb Banks DL Florida 10-Feb
Clutch Points (Crean) T.J. Parker EDGE Clemson Kayden MacDonald DL Ohio State 10-Feb
CBSSports (Renner) Jermod McCoy CB Tennessee Blake Miller OT Clemson 9-Feb
The Athletic (Baumgardner) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Brandon Cisse CB South Carolina 9-Feb
Yahoo (Staff) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Brandon Cisse CB South Carolina 9-Feb
McShay Report (McShay) Akheem Mesidor EDGE Miami (FL) C.J. Allen LB Georgia 9-Feb
Bleacher Report (Sobleski) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Cashius Howell EDGE Teaxas A&M 9-Feb
Draft Network (Eisner) Jeremiyah Love RB Notre Dame Cashius Howell EDGE Teaxas A&M 9-Feb
Mock Draft Player (12th) Position College Player (20th) Position College Last Updated
Sharpe Football (McCrystal) Jordyn Tyson WR Arizona State Cashius Howell EDGE Teaxas A&M 9-Feb
CBSSports (Edwards) Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn Colton Hood CB Tennessee 9-Feb
SI (Morales) Cashius Howell EDGE Teaxas A&M Colton Hood CB Tennessee 9-Feb
NFL.com (Reuter) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Emmanuel McNeil-Warren S Toledo 9-Feb
USA Today (Middlehurst) Mansoor Delane CB LSU Emmanuel McNeil-Warren S Toledo 9-Feb
Sporting News (Iyer) Carnell Tate WR Ohio State Kayden MacDonald DL Ohio State 9-Feb
CBSSports (Rogers) Mansoor Delane CB LSU Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn 9-Feb
Fox Sports (Klatt) Caleb Downs S Ohio State Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn 9-Feb
NBCSports (Rogers) Mansoor Delane CB LSU Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn 9-Feb
SI (Feinberg) Jeremiyah Love RB Notre Dame Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn 9-Feb
CBSSports (Brockermeyer) Jeremiyah Love RB Notre Dame Sonny Styles LB Ohio State 9-Feb
CBSSports (Wilson) Caleb Downs S Ohio State Sonny Styles LB Ohio State 9-Feb
SB Nation (Schofield) Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn Sonny Styles LB Ohio State 9-Feb
Mock Draft Player (12th) Position College Player (20th) Position College Last Updated
NFL Spin Zone (Debinger) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Akheem Mesidor EDGE Miami (FL) 8-Feb
PFF (Cummings) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Akheem Mesidor EDGE Miami (FL) 8-Feb
PFF (Chadwick) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Cashius Howell EDGE Teaxas A&M 8-Feb
DraftWire (Popejoy) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Spencer Fano OT Utah 8-Feb
USA Today (Ostly) Mansoor Delane CB LSU Cashius Howell EDGE Teaxas A&M 7-Feb
NFL.com (Frelund) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State T.J. Parker EDGE Clemson 6-Feb
Draft Countdown (Menedez) Jermod McCoy CB Tennessee Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn 4-Feb
DMN (Hoyt) Jermod McCoy CB Tennessee C.J. Allen LB Georgia 2-Feb
NFL.com (Zierlein) Caleb Downs S Ohio State Jordyn Tyson WR Arizona State 2-Feb
USA Today (Camenker) Jermod McCoy CB Tennessee Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn 2-Feb
ESPN (Miller) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State T.J. Parker EDGE Clemson 2-Feb
PFF (Sikkema) Caleb Downs S Ohio State T.J. Parker EDGE Clemson 2-Feb
Draft Network (Melo) Sonny Styles LB Ohio State Mansoor Delane CB LSU 1-Feb
That’s a ton of info to digest, with 21 different prospects mocked to the Cowboys somewhere in the first round, so let’s look at a few more digestible extracts from this exercise, starting with how this round of mocks compares to the last one.
Mock Draft distribution by Player Posiition
Position
Linebacker
Cornerback
EDGE
Safety
Others
Wide Receiver
Running Back
Offensive Tackle
Defensive Tackle
What we see here is a shift away from linebackers to edge rushers, plus a strong increase in “other positions” that didn’t get much attention in January. Naturally, this produces some “winners and losers” among the players mocked to Dallas:
Mock Draft distribution by Player Posiition
Position
LB
C.J. Allen
Arvell Reese
CB
Jermod McCoy
Colton Hood
Brandon Cisse
Avieon Terrell
EDGE
Cashius Howell
T.J. Parker
Akheem Mesidor
Gabe Jacas
S
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
WR
Carnell Tate
RB
DL
Caleb Banks
OT
Monroe Freeling
Spencer Fano
Sonny Styles still remains the consensus favorite for the Cowboys, but his lead over other prospects has dropped. At cornerback, the attention in the mock drafts shifted towards the top two guys in this draft class, Mansoor Delane and Jermod McCoy at the expense of the other corners in this class. At edge, the Cowboys are completely out of the Rueben Bain and David Bailey sweepstakes, but Cashius Howell and T.J. Parker are new names popping up in the mocks. Safety is getting some mock interest, but having Caleb Downs dropping all the way to No. 12 seems more like a pipe dream than anything else at the moment. But keep an eye on Emmanuel McNeill-Warren, he’s been getting increasing interest lately. Also, why anybody would have the Cowboys invest their No. 12 pick in a WR, RB, or DT is completely beyond me.
But all of that doesn’t yet tell us too much about how the first round could play out for the Cowboys. For that, I plotted where seven specific players were taken in each of the 50 mocks. Those seven players are:
The top safety, and maybe the best player in the draft, Caleb Downs
The consensus top pick from the 40 mocks, Sonny Styles
The top six edge rushers in the 40 mocks
The top four corners mocked to the Cowboys
Here’s how often each player was taken at which spot in the 50 mocks:
40 Mock Drafts - Summary Results
Pick
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
20+
This table illustrates how the first round could likely play out for the Cowboys and the prospects they are interested in. One of the top two pass rushers, Bain or Bailey, is headed to Tennessee (#4) with the other one likely going to Washington (#7). Caleb Downs is a top 10 pick, and has a hard stop at Cincinnati (#10), though there is a slim chance he could fall to the Cowboys.
LB Sonny Styles could be a consideration for Washington at #7, but they should happily bite on one of the falling pass rushers, so there’s a 70% (28 of 40 mocks) chance he’ll be available at #12 for the Cowboys. Barring Caleb Downs falling to them (12.5% chance), the Cowboys should have the option of picking between Styles (70%) or cornerbacks Mansoor Delane (37.5%) or Jermod McCoy (50%). Which of the two corners fall depends on what Miami does at #11.
The mocks seem to agree, for now, that pass rusher is the likely pick at #20 for the Cowboys, and depending on which player the Cowboys have their eyes on, they might even consider trading down from the 20th spot if they can find a team interested in moving up.
Overall, that leaves the Cowboys with a lot of options, and if you boil it down to position combinations, here are the most frequent combinations among the 40 mocks:
23%: #12 CB/Safety, #20 Edge
20%: #12 LB, #20 Edge
10%: #12 LB, #20 CB/Safety
5%: #12 Edge, #20 CB
5%: #12 Edge, #20 LB
To get a little more clarity on which player could be available for the Cowboys, you can look up the player ranking on your favorite big board, you can make up your own ranking, and you could even use a consensus big board to figure out such a ranking.
Or we could look at the average draft position for each player based on the 40 mocks above, which is exactly what you’ll see in the table below. I included all LBs, CBs, edge rushers and safeties that were mocked to the Cowboys at least once, and added four more players to round things out (LB Arvell Reese, DE Rueben Bain, DE David Bailey, CB Avieon Terrell). To arrive at the average rank, I calculated the average across the 40 mocks, and where a player fell out of the Top 32, I used the 33th spot to calculate the average draft position.
POS Avg. rank Player Available at No. 12 Available at No. 20
LB 2.6 Arvell Reese -- --
12.4 Sonny Styles 70% 10%
27.1 C.J. Allen 100% 80%
CB 11.5 Mansoor Delane 38% 5%
12.9 Jermod McCoy 50% 3%
25.1 Avieon Terrell 100% 60%
26.3 Colton Hood 100% 70%
27.7 Brandon Cisse 100% 80%
EDGE 5.5 Rueben Bain 3% 3%
6.1 David Bailey 3% --
18.0 Keldric Faulk 83% 43%
23.1 Cashius Howell 100% 60%
25.9 T.J. Parker 98% 75%
26.1 Akheem Mesidor 100% 70%
32.7 Gabe Jacas 100% 100%
Safety 8.5 Caleb Downs 13% --
28.7 Emmanuel McNeil-Warren 100% 88%
Within the confines of this 40-mock data set, that gives the Cowboys plenty of options, with the big caveat that it’s still a long way to go to the draft.
What would be your choice right now, based on these 40 mocks and the 21 prospects mocked to the Cowboys?