We look ahead to Tuesday’s marquee Champions League first-leg knockout play-off tie at the Estádio da Luz with our Benfica vs Real Madrid prediction and preview.
Benfica vs Real Madrid: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer heavily favours a Real Madrid win, with Alvaro Arbeloa’s side picking up a first-leg win in 47% the pre-match simulations.
Benfica have won three of their four meetings with Real Madrid in European competition (L1), including defeating Madrid in dramatic fashion in the final round of the league phase in January.
Real Madrid have won eight of their last 10 Champions League matches overall against Portuguese opposition (D1 L1), averaging 2.2 goals per match in that span.
The Champions League often has this special knack of tossing up just the right fixture at just the right time. And Benfica versus Real Madrid in the knockout play-off round is one of those times.
These two sides played out a clash for the ages on the final matchday of the league phase at the end of January, where Benfica dominated and eventually triumphed 4-2, sealing their passage into the knockout rounds with a dramatic stoppage-time header from goalkeeper (yes, goalkeeper) Anatoliy Trubin.
A memorable last meeting
That defeat denied Real Madrid direct progression to the last 16, leaving them in the same position they found themselves at this time last season: navigating the play-offs to avoid an early exit.
But since that loss three weeks ago, Alvaro Arbeloa’s side have found an upturn in form with three straight victories in La Liga – the most impressive of which came at the weekend in a 4-1 drubbing of Real Sociedad.
With Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo unavailable through injury, Vinícius Júnior and Gonzalo García shouldered the attacking burden and guided Madrid to a comfortable victory.
While that will undoubtedly lift their confidence ahead of their revenge mission in Lisbon, their form in Europe this season has been inconsistent, as seen in their ninth-place league phase finish.
In fact, across their last 11 Champions League matches, Los Blancos have lost more often (six times) than they have won (five). Prior to these last 11 outings, their previous six defeats in the competition came over a span of 39 matches, between April 2022 and March 2025.
Benfica have likewise built on the confidence gained from that victory over Real Madrid and are unbeaten in their three matches since.
A routine 2-1 win over 10-man Santa Clara on Friday will only have boosted the already-sky-high confidence of boss José Mourinho, who is looking to get the better of his former side for the second time in quick succession.
It will only inspire further belief that the Eagles have won their last two Champions League home games – 2-0 over Napoli and 4-2 over Real Madrid – and could record three consecutive home victories in a single campaign for only the second time, having previously done so in 1994-95.
Stylistically, there is little to separate Benfica and Real Madrid’s attacking play as both sides employ a more direct approach in the final third, driven by their dynamic wide forwards.
They are the two sides that have scored the most goals from direct attacks in the Champions League this season (four each), while Madrid rank highest for overall direct attacks (29; averaging 3.6 per game) with Benfica not far behind (17; averaging 2.1 per game).
And speaking of direct forwards, Madrid will hope Mbappé has recovered from the knock that sidelined him against La Real and is fit to start on Tuesday.
The Frenchman has netted 13 goals in seven appearances in Europe this season. Among all players who have played at least five matches, this marks the highest goals-per-game ratio of any player in a single European Cup/Champions League campaign (1.86 goals per game/1.88 goals per 90).
Kylian Mbappe goals UCL 2025-26
His success has, in large part come from a blossoming partnership with Vinícius. The duo have combined to create 19 chances this season, more than any other partnership in the competition. In fact, the only player with more chances created for a teammate in this edition than Vinicius’ nine for Mbappe is Mbappe’s 10 for Vinicius.
For Benfica, the attention is sure to be on Vangelis Pavlidis, who has scored nine goals in the competition and is one away from becoming only the second Benfica player to reach double figures in a single Champions League campaign, after Oscar Cardozo (11).
Benfica vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head
Benfica delivered an all-time Champions League classic in their incredible 4-2 victory three weeks ago, helped by an impressive performance from Andreas Schjelderup and, of course, goalkeeper Trubin’s late heroics.
They will be hoping to replicate that result and it bodes well for Mourinho’s side that they have triumphed in three of their four meetings with Real Madrid in the Champions League/European Cup (L1).
But they have historically struggled against Spanish sides, winning just two of their last eight matches in the competition against teams from Spain.
Conversely, Real Madrid will draw confidence from the fact that they have won eight of their last 10 matches against Portuguese opponents (D1 L1), scoring an average of 2.2 goals per match.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction
Real Madrid’s experience under high pressure, especially in the Champions League, means they enter Tuesday’s clash as favourites according to the Opta supercomputer.
Los Blancos triumphed in 47% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while Benfica took a first-leg lead 28.7% of the time. A draw, meanwhile, was the outcome in 24.3% of the simulations.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction
Benfica vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
Benfica: Anatoliy Trubin, Amar Dedic, Tomás Araújo, Nicolás Otamendi, Samuel Dahl, Leandro Barreiro, Enzo Barrenechea, Gianluca Prestianni, Heorhii Sudakov, Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis.
Head Coach: José Mourinho
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Federico Valverde, Dean Huijsen, David Alaba, Álvaro Carreras, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Güler, Franco Mastantuono, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé.
Head Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this week, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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