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Musings on the Packer's Dilemma

With the 2025 season behind us, we now have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight in order to assess what went right and wrong for teams all around the league. For some, it’s a pretty simple discussion. For the Green Bay Packers, it’s a bit more nuanced.

The Packers flashed their high end talent all season long. Thinking back to the first two weeks of the season, the Packers seemed unstoppable. Victories over the Lions and Commanders were hard to ignore at the time (though neither would go on to make the playoffs, or even impress all that much).

But the baseline problem for the Packers is just that. They flashed. They were never really quite able to put it all together. Every time it seemed like they had really found their stride, something would come along to knock them back down to Earth, and Green Bay would have to pick themselves up and get going again. This happened over the course of weeks, but you could also see this cycle repeating itself through the course of individual games too.

Usually, the cause of this "stumbling" effect was a devastating injury. Take your pick, because the Packers had plenty to choose from. Micah Parsons. Tucker Kraft. Jayden Reed. Devonte Wyatt. Zach Tom. They (and other) injuries are probably the main reason why the Packers aren’t coming off the highs of a Super Bowl victory right now, but they aren’t the only ones.

Reasons 2A and 2B are right on the line of scrimmage. I saw it best summed up succinctly on twitter recently.

Football an amazing sport because we talk about a million things all year and then it really boils down to do you have men in the trenches or not

— Daniel Oyefusi (@DanielOyefusi) February 9, 2026

Unfortunately for the Packers, they just did not have the right men in the trenches. On the offensive line, the team suffered from positional rotations and poor execution. Defensively, most of their pass rush problems were solved by the presence of Micah Parsons until he was no longer there to solve them. Then on the interior, they struggled mightily against the run, for which I’d blame the lack of a true NT. Their heaviest player was Nazir Stackhouse at 327, but as an undrafted free agent, he was limited in his impact. The team waited too long to add another run stopper, and the next heaviest lineman was also a rookie, Warren Brinson.

These struggles are well documented at this point, and rehashing them isn’t the point of this article. Rather, the point is to ask: what can the Packers actually do about it? Without taking the wildcard issue of injuries into account, there are a few things.

First and foremost, the obvious answer: you pour resources into the problem. Yes, the Packers have a limited amount of those right now. Is there a possibility to add a true blue chip type of player to the roster? No, not really. The lack of a first round draft precludes the possibility of one falling into your lap via the draft, and there probably wouldn’t be one there at 20 anyway, even if the Packers had their picks intact.

Meanwhile in free agency, the team starts with a deficit in cap space, albeit a very easily surmountable one. Releasing one of Elgton Jenkins or Rashan Gary gets them into the green by themselves, and the Packers are all but guaranteed to release both. This, along with some other possible moves, could net them ~$25-30 million, depending on how aggressive the team wants to be. That’s great, but consider their own extension candidates and the rising cost of doing business in the NFL. If the Packers made every single cap cutting move or measure that they could take this offseason, they’d wind up with ~$80 million in cap space. That's still not as much as the teams with the most to spend right now, who could all also make their own cap moves. So, they likely won’t be amongst the biggest threats in the player acquisition market.

All together, what does that mean? The Packers will need to be smart in how they let free agency play out, and they need to be lucky in who falls to them in the draft.

The front office will need to be extremely smart in how they identify and value veteran free agents on the market this offseason. Count me amongst the growing voice of fans who are ready to move on from the “youngest roster in the NFL” era. Adding a few key veteran voices to that locker room could be a major, deciding factor in crunch time next year. I’m a huge fan of how the Packers have allowed their young player base to mature and grow together, but at the end of the day, they should take a lesson from the Seahawks and Eagles, who had outside veteran free agents act as key contributors to their respective championship runs.

Finding outside additions who won’t break the bank is not Mission: Impossible. In fact, that’s been one of the core strengths of the Gutekunst era. Did they out think themselves last year, with the idea to move Nate Hobbs to the outside, or to bet that the perennially injured Aaron Banks would stay healthy? Maybe. But let’s not fall victim to recency bias. De’Vondre Campbell, Rasul Douglas, and Rick Wagner were all found for pennies on the dollar. Market price free agents like the Smith brothers, Josh Jacobs, and Xavier McKinney have been franchise-altering signings.

Finding an outside contributor should be a heavy priority for the front office, likely at a position of key need. A few come to mind, such as recent Super Bowl winner Tariq Woolen, if the Packers wanted to make a splash at cornerback. There’s also Josh Jobe from the same team, or Jaylen Watson from Kansas City. Maybe a trade could be in order? There’s been rumors of Tennessee willing to move on from T’Vondre Sweat, and the 366lb nose tackle could be just what the doctor ordered for Green Bay’s defense.

Whatever direction the Packers choose to go in, will they be able to shore up all their remaining holes in the draft? The tough answer is no, probably not. And the even harder answer is that they shouldn't, and it’s here where the biggest decisions around the offseason find form.

When it comes to the draft, the reality is that teams who draft badly, draft only for need. Drafting the best player available is far superior when it comes to the long term health of a team’s roster, even though it has a tendency to drive us all crazy. Smart teams draft to fill future needs, not current ones.

Think back to last year’s draft. While wide receiver was generally considered to be a need for the Packers, I definitely would not have labeled it their “primary” need. I was begging for investment at cornerback and defensive tackle, but instead they went with their own board, taking WR, OL and another WR. It’s the third round pick of Savion Williams that confused me most at the time, and it meant that the Packers were not going to leave that draft with an impact edge rusher or cornerback. Could that decision work out in the long term for Green Bay? You bet. Was there short-term frustration associated with the lack of investment, especially at cornerback? Yup.

Without a first round pick, the reality is that the Packers are probably more likely to include a wide range of options at their selections, rather than focusing on a few needs. The roster math in the coming years makes balancing the rising costs of Jordan Love, Micah Parsons, and extension candidates like Tucker Kraft with hoarding cheap rookies contract imperative to fielding their 53 man rosters.

The Packers usually make a couple of these head scratching draft picks a year. My go-to example now is the Ty’Ron Hopper selection in the third round of 2024. At the time, Hopper was considered a massive reach. The same was true of Evan Williams. But without the Hopper pick, the Packers have a young, promising player on the verge of a breakout and can afford to move on from Quay Walker if they choose to. It’s why you draft Jacob Monk long before Josh Myers is gone (not that that selection has quite panned out, as of yet).

Over the next two seasons, the Packers will need to decide the fates of the three draft classes that saw the bulk of the benefit from the trades of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Without an excess of picks, the team now needs to deal with the reality of more cheap rookies leaving the team rather than coming in. This is what makes the estimated four comp picks that the Packers could receive in 2027 so valuable, which could be canceled out by outside additions. It also means the Packers are probably better suited (as far as the long term health of the roster) to not spend a lot of money this offseason. They could choose to sign their own guys, let the rest of the money roll over to a more cash-strapped 2027, and reap the benefits then.

The problem, of course, is that the Packers pushed their chips in on a championship window that is open now. Refusing to invest in the 2026 season would be a puzzling move, and could result in a similar, disappointing result to the season. The Packers are caught between a rock and hard place when it comes to their needs, and their ability to fill those needs. And the walls are shrinking rapidly.

The Packers have shown the ability to quickly remake certain position groups, like safety in 2024 or the pass catchers from 2022-2023. But this strategy entails pouring lots of capital into the position, capital that the Packers will have to pull away from their usual strategy. Fixing the safety room meant a near top of market contract for Xavier McKinney, along with three draft picks. For the pass catchers, it meant five receiver selections across two drafts, and two tight ends. Fixing the offensive line, defensive line, or cornerback room in this manner would leave the other needs woefully unaddressed.

I’m not saying that it’s impossible for the Packers to emerge on the other side of this offseason with a more cohesive offensive line, a dominant nose tackle, and new starter at cornerback. In fact, it might be closer than you think. The offensive line could be fixed with something as simple as a great training camp. With everyone’s position (hopefully) more set in stone than in years past, the Packers could get upgrades at right guard, center, and left tackle just by settling players in at the places they ended last season at. That’s assuming the team chooses to re-sign Sean Rhyan, which I think they will. At nose tackle, there are players out there for the Packers to find. Between a trade for T’Vondre Sweat, and signing a veteran, the Packers could address this before the draft even begins. The same goes for corner, and this is rumored to be a fairly deep draft class at the position.

The Packers front office will need to turn an “A” worthy offseason for the Packers to hoist the Lombardi. Whether they can thread all those needles and preserve the championship window will be seen, but I’ve got faith in Gutekunst & Co.

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