Orlando Magic Paolo Banchero
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Expectations were 50+ wins. Now the Orlando Magic are fighting to avoid the Play-In and Paolo Banchero’s regression is at the center of the debate. Is this just a midseason dip… or a bigger warning sign for Orlando’s future?
The Orlando Magic are not tanking. They can’t. With fewer than 30 games left in the 2025-26 NBA season, Orlando sits 28-25 and seventh in the Eastern Conference and their first-round pick already belongs to the Memphis Grizzlies from the Desmond Bane trade.
This is a playoff push, not a lottery play. That’s why Bleacher Report’s latest projection, trimming Orlando’s expected win total from 51 in December to 45 now hits differently. Because the biggest concern isn’t just injuries. It’s Paolo Banchero.
Expectations vs. Reality in Orlando
The Magic entered the season with momentum. After trading for Bane, the belief was that Orlando had finally added the perimeter shooting and secondary scoring needed to complement Banchero and Franz Wagner. In a wide-open Eastern Conference, 49 to 51 wins felt realistic. Instead, the Magic have spent most of the season hovering near the Play-In line.
Bleacher Report’s Grant Hughes pointed directly at Banchero’s dip as a central issue, writing:
“Far from making the superstar leap many expected, Paolo Banchero is regressing. He’s on pace to post his lowest scoring average and effective field-goal percentage since his rookie year and is now facing questions about his fitness as the key piece of a respectable NBA offense.”
The numbers back that up. Banchero is averaging 21.3 points per game, down from 25.9 last season. His clutch true shooting percentage, which sat at 57.3 percentage last year, has plummeted to 34 percent this season.
He missed 10 games from mid-November to early December with a groin strain suffered on his birthday. Since returning, the rhythm has not consistently followed.
Even when his box-score totals look solid, 24.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 5.4 assists in January, the dominance has been inconsistent. During a recent win over the Milwaukee Bucks, he went 0-for-4 in the first half. In a loss two nights later, he finished 5-of-16 from the field. Bad nights happen. Sustained inconsistency raises questions.
Fit Questions and System Concerns
One Eastern Conference assistant coach offered a blunt evaluation:
“He does not move all that well. That’s the thing you notice. I think they wanted him to put on muscle and play closer to the rim and that’s maybe a good idea in theory but not in reality. What makes him unique is that he is 6-foot-10 and can attack you from the perimeter. If you take that away, he becomes a more average player.”
That critique cuts at Orlando’s structural dilemma. If Banchero operates primarily as a 6-foot-10 interior scorer, his skill set overlaps heavily with Franz Wagner, another 6-foot-10 forward who thrives attacking from space. In theory, that size gives Orlando versatility. In practice, it has created redundancy in half-court sets.
Banchero himself hinted at broader system frustration when asked by The Athletic about the team’s offensive struggles:
“I think our record answers that question, honestly. I’m not going to sit here and harp on the problems with our offense or what I think is wrong with our offense. But I don’t think anyone would say that it’s where it should be or could be.”
That’s not a player fully confident in the offensive flow.
The Stretch Run Defines Everything
Orlando’s upcoming West Coast trip, featuring the Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns, LA Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers, will be a measuring stick. The Magic sit just 1.5 games behind the sixth-place Philadelphia 76ers, meaning they can still avoid the Play-In tournament entirely.
Guard Jalen Suggs struck an optimistic tone heading into the All-Star break:
“I think we’re fine. We know we went down early in the season. We went through our ups and downs and our adversities, as every team does, and this is where we are: 28-25, not even a horrible spot to be.”
He’s not wrong. The record isn’t disastrous. But expectations matter. This was supposed to be the year Orlando took a leap, not a step sideways. The Magic once felt the next sleeping giant in the Eastern Conference lying in wait to strike. Now they just hope to be good enough to make noise in the playoff picture.
With no draft incentive to fall and no margin for regression from their franchise cornerstone, the final 30 games will determine whether this season becomes validation or a warning sign.