The Miami Heat come into the seasons last 26 games with a record of 29-27 and find themselves as the 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. They find themselves 5.5 games back of hosting a home playoff series as the 4 seed and 2 games back of escaping a fourth straight play-in tournament appearance.
The Heat will have 14 home games and 12 road games down the stretch.
So, with all this is mind, the team getting healthy, and the Miami Heat's well-respected willingness to win, what games are most important down the stretch?
We’re at the All-Star Break with just 26 games remaining.
The Miami Heat this season are:
— 8th in the East
— 4th in DEF RTG ð
— 17th in OFF RTG
— 10th in NET RTG ð
At a .518 win % they’re on pace for 42 wins which is above the projections of 37 wins before the season… pic.twitter.com/uvRltlda3Y
— Coach Geo (@geovaldez_) February 13, 2026
1. The Tanking Teams
I am going to cheat a little bit here and combine all the games against the tanking teams. Yes, the Heat lost to a tanking Utah Jazz, but this won't happen again. At least it shoudn't.
Miami has 6 games against teams that are clearly tanking, three against the Wizards, two against the Nets, and one against the Pacers. These games are crucial to giving Miami cushion down the stretch.
2. 2/26 & 3/30 Home and Away Vs Philadelphia
This contest against the Sixers looms large as the Sixers currently are 6th in the East. That is ultimately the spot Miami is chasing in their hopes to escape the Play-In Tournament. Miami has already beat the Sixers on their floor --albeit without Embiid-- but wins here will be crucial in their push to escaping the Play-In.
3. 4/7 & 4/9 @ Toronto
The Miami Heat will face the Toronto Raptors back to back in their 80th and 81st games of the season. The Raptors are currently nine games above .500 and 5.5 games ahead of the Heat. By this time, these games will play a huge part of the Eastern Conference standings. The two teams have played twice with Toronto taking both games, both by double digits and have had a great season on the backs of Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram.
Beyond these matchups the Heat will face many contenders down the stretch which will help tell the Heat where they stand in the NBA but will also be quite telling in their future development.
The Heat will be in the thick of the playoff or play-in race no matter what, unless things go completely wrong in Miami down the stretch. But the games listed above loom the largest in regard to making the playoffs and their overall seeding.
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