Last week we talked about how all off-season, in 2025, we said the Lions would miss a step down two coordinators and it happened. Well, when we talked about the Vikings making a mistake by going with JJ McCarthy QB, it was even more right. 2-0. Ignore the Bears article, please.
Offense
The Vikings were 28th in EPA on offense in 2025, down from 14th in 2024. This happened after they let Sam Darnold leave to go win a Super Bowl with the Seahawks, and went with JJ McCarthy as QB. McCarthy was PFF's 33rd-ranked QB (remember, there are 32 teams). To make it even worse, at one point this season, Daniel Jones was in the MVP race with the Colts (his season was ended prematurely because of injury), and he was also in that QB room last season.
But that's not all! The only offensive lineman on the team to place in the top 12 at his position was right tackle Brian O'Neil, O'Neil could definitely be a cap casualty this offseason. No running back on the team was close to even an average performer. Jordan Addison took a step back and is now in every wide receiver trade rumor. It's not just the QB! The whole offense is bad.
We'll get into the salary cap soon enough, but let's make it clear: they can't just go sign three offensive linemen, a vet QB, a few new RBs, and a new WR2. Ain't happening. Not only is there no money for any of that, those guys aren't in free agency. More than likely, the Vikings' offense will be bad again.
Defense
At least they have Brian Flores coaching the defense, right? Well, last year, yes. They had the third-best defensive EPA in the league. And that was without superstar-level play from any player on the defense. It is worth noting that they're going to lose Harrison Smith to age.
Flores holds this defense together - their highest-ranked d-lineman was 31st. Linebacker was 40th. D-back was 19th. From that list, Isaiah Rodgers at corner was the best performer. He played outside after previously being a slot corner and benefited from some well-timed pressures. Sound familiar? A few years ago, Byron Murphy played like one of the best corners in the league coming off a disappointing run with the Cardinals. He played well enough to get paid and then was ranked 70th last year. I'm just saying, don't be shocked if Rodgers takes a step back.
Anyway, the other thing with Flores defenses is that, when they're based on cloak-and-dagger-type stuff they get figured out. Half the league is running quarters pressures now and 100% of the league is running sim pressures. It's not that unique and he won't have Harrison Smith as a coach on the field to keep everyone in the right spot.
So...I'm really hoping we see some regression from the defense. Let's say they blow their load on Kirk Cousins in free agency and then the defense is like 12th best. That's a recipe for a 5-12 team. Nice.