NFL Draft projections are difficult and certainly more science than art. However, throughout the draft season, many analysts must be the bearer of bad news. Sometimes it’s legitimate and sometimes it's over analyzing small details.
In the case of Diego Pavia, Todd McShay has delivered a take publicly that many already believed to be true. Pavia does not have an NFL quarterback skill set.
The important thing to remember is winning games or being exciting, does not necessarily relate to an NFL quarterback skill set nor is it an indicator of future NFL success. The most direct comp that explains this concept is that Diego Pavia is the anti-Tim Tebow.
Pavia, like Tebow, plays with a ton of grit and determination. He has moxie in spades. He is a gamer and can be incredible working off platform. However, none of those descriptors feeds directly into what NFL General Managers are looking for.
Also, like Tebow, pocket presence and discipline, elite arm talent, command of the offense, a willingness to win within structure and an instinctive ability to put the ball where it needs to be, are not aspects that describe Pavia.
Draft analyst Todd McShay puts Pavia into context
McShay is a respected analyst that doesn’t pick favorites unless the game tape dictates this over that. While McShay’s take is not divine football mandate, it does carry some weight. Recently, McShay articulated a growing concern with Pavia.
“I don’t know if Diego Pavia can play quarterback in the NFL. You watch him during the team sessions and 7-on-7s and there’s some fun things to watch, man,” McShay Said. “He just has unbelievable instincts. But when you watch him in 1-on-1s, having to drive the ball, make NFL throws, it's not the same as the other guys.”
That is the issue in a nutshell. Pavia is small, not particularly fast on the move, does some creative things, but lacks the skill set NFL teams are looking for.
“It’s not like he did it in the WAC or FCS. He did it in the SEC. So it’s hard to say definitively that this guy can’t play in the NFL. I’m not saying that. I’m saying when you watch him out ther, you start to wonder, are the limitations going to be too much in the NFL?”
Once the pre Draft process gets into he weeds so to speak around March and April, another growing concept will take shape. Success in the college football wins and losses metric does not necessarily equal high draft pick.
Shedeur Sanders is Pavia's cautionary tale
An interesting corollary is Shedeur Sanders. Not in play style, but in narratives. In 2024 Sanders put up a stat line of 74% completion percentage, almost 4,200 yards and 37 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. In 2025 Pavia put up a stat line of 70% completion percentage, almost 3,600 yards and 29 touchdowns to eight interceptions.
Despite his on-field numbers there was enough that NFL front offices didn't like about Sanders, likely off the field, that he was drafted No. 144 in the 5th round. The largest divider between Sanders and Pavia is style of play. Sanders is a pocket passer who by and large, works within the framework of the offense. Yet it could be more of what was said and done during the pre-Draft process that impacted Sanders' stock the most.
Pavia started off the pre-Draft process poorly. When head coach Clark Lea attempted to schedule an additional game to improve Vanderbilt’s playoff chances, that was supported by Pavia. Later, Pavia would reach out via Twitter asking for legislative help from the President of the United States. Both moves were not received well.
The Heisman Trophy presentation offered two issues of concern. The first of which was simply confirmation of a commonly held idea. Pavia is strikingly small. The second of which might be more concerning. When Pavia did not win the Heisman, he went scorched earth mode. Criticizing Heisman voters and casting a shadow over the entire proceedings.
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Pavia’s Senior Bowl performance was not good. Many media outlets celebrated his success at the Senior Bowl, due in large part to a sentiment from practice. Pavia was voted by his Senior Bowl teammates as one of the better practice players.
However, the positive practices and vote of confidence from his teammates did not translate to the game. Pavia’s size, footwork as well as his passing technique and delivery were all some varying degree of not good.
As the pre-Draft process continues with the Scouting Combine and the Vanderbilt pro day still to be performed, more clarity would come to light on Pavia’s draft stock. However, in the early going, it is not looking promising for Pavia’s long term NFL success.
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The Vanderbilt quarterback has said since the season ended that he was the best player in the 2026 NFL Draft. It will take more than soundbites to convince NFL front offices to take a chance on him. If he can’t convince teams of that, his draft stock might be less than Sanders’ was. Putting him deep in Day 3, if drafted at all.
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