The title race is now entering the final straightplaceholder image
The title race is now entering the final straight | Getty Images
A look at how Arsenal’s title bid is shaping up and how their remaining fixtures compare to Man City and Aston Villa.
We are now entering the business end of the season, with just 12 games remaining in the Premier League campaign. With only a quarter of the season remaining, Arsenal are in the driving seat, four points ahead of Manchester City as they prepare to face Wolves on Wednesday night.
But City are in a strong form, and Aston Villa have not given up hope just yet as they look to repeat a superb run they had earlier in the season to keep them in the mix. As we enter the most fun and exciting part of the season, we have taken a look at the current table, how the supercomputer sees the title race finishing and each of the run-ins of the contenders.
The current table
Here is the current Premier League table, as of Tuesday, February 18.
1st - Arsenal - 57pts // 32GD
2nd - Man City - 53pts // 30GD
3rd - Aston Villa - 50pts // 10GD
Predicted final Premier League table
The Opta predicted Premier League table, which uses many simulations to produce an average final table, looks like this:
1st - Arsenal - 81.94pts // Title-winning probability: 85.82%
2nd - Man City - 74.55pts // Title-winning probability: 12.06%
3rd - Aston Villa -70.87pts // Title-winning probability: 2.08%
Run-ins compared
Wolves (A), Tottenham (A), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A), Everton (H), AFC Bournemouth (H), Man City (A), Newcastle United (H), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A).
Newcastle United (H), Leeds United (A), Nottingham Forest (H), West Ham (A), Crystal Palace (H - Date TBC), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (A), Everton (A), Brentford (H), AFC Bournemouth (A), Aston Villa (H).
Aston Villa
Leeds United (H), Wolves (A), Chelsea (H), Man Utd (A), West Ham (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Sunderland (H), Fulham (A), Tottenham (H), Burnley (A), Liverpool (H), Man City (A).
Arsenal’s run-in analysed
Arsenal have two winnable games on the bounce before they face Chelsea to start the more difficult part of their schedule. The Blues fixture starts a run of six or seven games that are all going to be real tests, but the reward comes after that.
The Gunners then have three very winnable games to finish the season, although West Ham could be dangerous if they have survival on the line at that stage. As for Manchester City, they face a struggling Newcastle side next, and they then have three winnable games, depending on when that Palace game is scheduled, with a date not yet set.
Their final run-in is a mix, but they finish the season with some tricky games, against Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
Last but not least, Villa have a lot of work to do given they are fighting from behind. The Midlands club also arguably have the most difficult run-in, even with some very winnable games in there. Finishing the season with Liverpool and Villa is not ideal, and there are also games with Chelsea and Manchester United in the coming weeks. The more winnable games come against three of the bottom four, and they also face Leeds, although the Yorkshire club have been tough to beat.
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