The 2026 NFL Draft could be the first draft in nearly 19 years that an Alabama player is not chosen in the first round, and one of the players that has the best opportunity to keep the streak alive is quarterback Ty Simpson.
This year’s quarterback class is going to be headlined by Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, the projected No. 1 overall pick. After that, it seems like an uncertain path for the rest of the quarterbacks in the draft.
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ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. views Simpson as the No. 2 quarterback in the 2026 class, but there are a few logical reasons that Simpson could slide to Day 2 in the draft, and those reasons do not necessarily have to do with Simpson or his play.
There is only one team that desperately needs a new quarterback, and that’s the New York Jets. A team like the Pittsburgh Steelers could be in that boat with the Jets if Aaron Rodgers retires or signs with a new team, but the Jets arguably have the most needs to tend to this offseason because of all the trades they’ve made and the failures of past draft choices. Maybe the Los Angeles Rams are looking for a quarterback to sit behind Matthew Stafford until he retires, but these are the destinations that most NFL draft analysts have come up with.
The problem that Simpson is going to face is a team’s fear of reaching in the draft. If an organization believes that Simpson will be available on Day 2 of the NFL draft, then the organization will pass up on taking him in round 2.
The New York Jets have two picks in the first round. The Jets acquired the Colt’s first-round pick in the Sauce Gardner trade last season. That pick from the Colts is the No. 16 overall pick, but the Jets also have the No. 2 overall pick.
If the Jets want to use the No. 2 overall pick to take an offensive or defensive lineman, then Simpson will likely be available when the draft gets to the No. 16 overall pick. The question then would be whether or not the Jets need to use that pick on Simpson.
If the Jets believe that Simpson will be available on Day 2, then it makes perfect sense to fill a different team’s need with the No. 16 overall pick. However, the Rams could snatch up Simpson with one of their two first-round picks to secure Stafford’s future replacement. The Steelers have the No. 21 overall pick, but the team may not go for a quarterback on Day 1 because they badly need help at wide receiver.
The reality is that whoever drafts Simpson could save money by taking Simpson in the second or third round, but the risk of losing him to another team is why it’s intriguing to see if a team pulls the trigger on Simpson in the first round.
It’s likely going to be a cat and mouse game between the teams that want a quarterback, but if Simpson has a great performance at the NFL Combine, Alabama’s Pro Day or in a private workout with an NFL team, he could convince a team to take him on the first day of the draft and cement himself as a first-round quarterback.