It was a disappointing night for Arsenalplaceholder image
It was a disappointing night for Arsenal | Getty Images
Arsenal suffered a blow iin their bid to win the Premier League title on Wednesday.
Arsenal suffered a blow in their title race on Wednesday night, giving up a two-goal lead to draw with bottom club Wolves. The Gunners were expected to win the game comfortably, but they came up short and have now allowed Manchester City the chance to close in, albeit their game in-hand won’t be played for a little while yet.
Here we take a look at the latest in the title race, including the predicted table, the compared run-ins and more.
The current table
Here is the current Premier League table, as of Thursday, February 19.
1st - Arsenal - 58pts // 32GD (Played one more game)
2nd - Man City - 53pts // 30GD
3rd - Aston Villa - 50pts // 10GD
Predicted final Premier League table
The Opta predicted Premier League table, which uses many simulations to produce an average final table, looks like this:
1st - Arsenal - 80.34pts // Title-winning probability: 79.69%
2nd - Man City - 74.60pts // Title-winning probability: 17.26%
3rd - Aston Villa -70.97pts // Title-winning probability: 2.92%
For reference, the Wolves draw saw Arsenal’s title-winning percentage drop by around 5%, while just over a point was shaved from their expected total. City’s chances went up by almost 5%, while Villa’s percentage went up by less than 0.5%.
Run-ins compared
Tottenham (A), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A), Everton (H), AFC Bournemouth (H), Man City (A), Newcastle United (H), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A).
Newcastle United (H), Leeds United (A), Nottingham Forest (H), West Ham (A), Crystal Palace (H - Date TBC), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (A), Everton (A), Brentford (H), AFC Bournemouth (A), Aston Villa (H).
Aston Villa
Leeds United (H), Wolves (A), Chelsea (H), Man Utd (A), West Ham (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Sunderland (H), Fulham (A), Tottenham (H), Burnley (A), Liverpool (H), Man City (A).
Arsenal’s run-in analysed
Arsenal missed a big opportunity against Wolves, and they must now win the North London derby if they want to guarantee stayin gin control of top spot without relying on any other results. That is especially the case because of a tough run of games that follows the Spurs game, but Arsenal do have a good end to the season, facing three, or potentially four, bottom half teams on the bounce.
As for Manchester City, they face a struggling Newcastle side next, and they then have three winnable games, depending on when that Palace game is scheduled, with a date not yet set.
Their final run-in is a mix, but they finish the season with some tricky games, against Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
Last but not least, Villa have a lot of work to do given they are fighting from behind. The Midlands club also arguably have the most difficult run-in, even with some very winnable games in there. Finishing the season with Liverpool and Villa is not ideal, and there are also games with Chelsea and Manchester United in the coming weeks. The more winnable games come against three of the bottom four, and they also face Leeds, although the Yorkshire club have been tough to beat.
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