Can Pep Guardiola’s side apply further pressure on Arsenal in the Premier League title race? We look ahead to Saturday’s clash with our Man City vs Newcastle prediction and preview.
Man City vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
Manchester City claimed all three points in 58.4% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
City are unbeaten in their last 21 Premier League home games against Newcastle United, winning each of the last 16.
Phil Foden has been involved in 99 Premier League goals (68 goals, 31 assists) and could be the sixth Man City player to 100 goal involvements.
Manchester City will hope to keep hot on the tails of Premier League leaders Arsenal when they host Newcastle United under the lights on Saturday night.
Arsenal’s lead at the top could sit at just two points if City overcome Newcastle, before the Gunners – who slipped up in a 2-2 draw at Wolves on Wednesday – visit rivals Tottenham.
And Mikel Arteta will be desperate for City to stumble at the Etihad Stadium, having seen them click into gear recently. A last-gasp 2-1 away victory over Liverpool at Anfield preceded a routine 3-0 home win over Fulham in their last league outing, thanks to goals from Antoine Semenyo, Nico O’Reilly and Erling Haaland.
Norwegian talisman Haaland was withdrawn at half-time against Fulham, though, and then subsequently sat out last Saturday’s 2-0 victory over neighbours Salford City in the FA Cup fourth round.
Omar Marmoush could prove a capable deputy up top if needs be. The Egyptian has scored five goals in just two home games against Newcastle across all competitions.
Marmoush got a hat-trick in this exact fixture last season – a 4-0 victory in February 2025 – and followed that up with two goals during a 3-1 win in this season’s EFL Cup semi-final second leg. City had also beaten Newcastle 2-0 at St. James’ Park in the first leg.
Eddie Howe’s men must be wary of Phil Foden, who has been involved in 99 Premier League goals (68 goals, 31 assists) and could be the sixth Man City player to 100 goal involvements. Foden would be the 18th-youngest player to this milestone overall, aged 25 years and 269 days on the day of this clash, and second-youngest for Man City behind Haaland (24y 237d).
City have noticeably tightened up at the back, too, aided by the brilliant Gianluigi Donnarumma. They have only conceded eight goals in 12 Premier League matches since their thrilling 5-4 win away to Fulham in December, the fewest of any side since MD15 onwards.
Donnarumma has prevented exactly three goals based on his expected goals on target (xGOT) conceded – a measure of the likelihood of an on-target shot resulting in a goal – in that time (11 xGOT, 8 conceded).
However, Harvey Barnes beat Donnarumma twice in this season’s reverse meeting at St. James’ Park, helping Newcastle to a 2-1 win. Not since Alan Shearer in 2004-05 have the Magpies had a player score home and away against Man City in the same league season.
Newcastle v Man City stats 2025-26
Anthony Gordon scored four times as Newcastle thrashed Qarabag 6-1 on the road in Wednesday’s first leg of their UEFA Champions League play-off. They have struggled against superior opposition away from home, though, going winless in their last 10 away league games against top-half teams (D3 L7) since a 3-1 victory at Nottingham Forest in November 2024.
That stretches to a massive 37 matches away to sides in the top two (D5 L32), last beating Arsenal 3-1 all the way back in December 2001. By contrast, each of Newcastle’s last nine Premier League away wins have come against teams starting the day in the bottom half of the table.
And it is hard to imagine Howe stopping that rot at City. English managers have taken charge of 76 Premier League visits to the Etihad since the 2010-11 season, with only Crystal Palace’s Roy Hodgson managing a 3-2 win in December 2018 (D8 L67).
Howe will have to battle for an unlikely scalp without Bruno Guimarães, whose hamstring issue is expected to keep him out until April. Fabian Schär is absent for a similar period, while Tino Livramento hopes to recover from a thigh injury by March. Joelinton, Lewis Miley, Yoane Wissa, and Sven Botman will all be assessed late with the hope of travelling.
As for City’s team news, Haaland, Jérémy Doku and Savinho will hope to be fit, with Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic Guardiola’s only long-term absentees.
Man City vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 21 Premier League home games against Newcastle, winning each of the last 16 – only Everton (22 against Fulham) have won more consecutive home games against one opponent in English top-flight history.
Guardiola’s side have won the last six home meetings without conceding, too. They have only managed a longer run with wins to nil against one opponent in their top-flight history (Stoke City, seven between 1982 and 2014).
But Newcastle will be out for an unlikely first league double over City since the 1983-84 second-tier campaign, and first in the top-flight since 1955-56.
Newcastle could also become the first team since 2011-12 to win both Premier League meetings against an opponent in the same season when losing two games to them in other competitions. City themselves were the last to do so against Manchester United (lost in the Community Shield and FA Cup).
However, that will be a tough ask given Newcastle’s 20 games at the Etihad marks the most a team has played at a venue without ever winning in the competition’s history (D2 L18).
Man City vs Newcastle Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see past a home win as Man City won 58.4% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Newcastle have just a 20% chance of victory, with the draw accounting for the rest of the scenarios (21.7%).
Man City v Newcastle Opta prediction 2025-26
Man City vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Rayan Aït-Nouri, Rodri, Nico O’Reilly, Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, Antoine Semenyo, Omar Marmoush.
Head coach: Pep Guardiola
Newcastle United: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall, Sandro Tonali, Joe Willock, Jacob Ramsey, Anthony Elanga, Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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