Tuesday, Aditi Kinkhabwala mused there was only a “minuscule” chance of quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning to the Steelers in 2026. Posed with the same question a day later, the PPG’s Gerry Dulac offered a much different take. Brief as it was, during a Wednesday PPG chat, Dulac gave his answer of Rodgers’ odds.
“Better than not,” Dulac told one reader.
In a later answer, he deemed “52-48” odds in favor of Rodgers coming back. Kinkhabwala didn’t offer a percentage but it’s safe to say her figure would be closer to 10 percent than the 50s.
Dulac’s commentary falls in line with what most insiders and pundits have speculated and reported. With Mike McCarthy and several other coaches who worked with Rodgers in Green Bay, there’s reason for Rodgers to believe he can seamlessly return to Pittsburgh even after Mike Tomlin’s departure.
Still, no one is offering anything definitive. Kinkhabwala and Dulac’s responses leave varying degrees of wiggle room for Rodgers to go the other way. And both have reason to think they’re correct.
After the season ended, the winds seemed to be blowing toward Rodgers retiring. And that was even under the assumption that Tomlin would return. If that wouldn’t have been enough to entice Rodgers, why would the prospects of playing for McCarthy be any different?
But Rodgers also noted his body felt good and his energy seemed renewed after two draining years with the New York Jets. Physically, he still proved he can play. Perhaps he doesn’t want his final NFL throw to be a pick-six in an ugly postseason loss. If anything, 2025 proved he wasn’t as washed as some analysts believed he was.
No matter what outsider weighs in, only Rodgers knows his decision. Last offseason showed he keeps a tight inner circle with the media often just guessing at his next move. It’s possible Rodgers doesn’t even yet know which way he’ll lean. A resolution by free agency is ideal but the only timeline Rodgers is working on is his own.
One analyst will feel vindicated. The other will be ready to spin why they were wrong.
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