Given that JT Toppin is unavailable for the rest of the season because of a torn ACL, Grant McCasland will have to engage in some radical reevaluation and reconfiguration. The evaluation part will focus on conduct of practice. ESPN's announcer team of Dave Pasch and Sean Farnham (a good one, by the way) reported that McCasland told them how incredibly hard the Red Raiders practiced in the days following their epic win over No. 1 Arizona, and how observers from the Phoenix Suns were astounded by the intensity of Texas Tech's practices. Now while there is no doubt that highly competitive practices are far more productive than glorified shoot-arounds, consideration needs to be given to cumulative fatigue late in the season and the health of personnel. In late November with all hands available, you certainly practice with great rigor. But in late February, deep into a grueling Big XII campaign, and with your best player no longer available because of injury, there simply has to be some moderation.
It was clear in last night's loss to Arizona State that this was not the same Texas Tech team that beat Arizona. Compared to the Sun Devils, Texas Tech's activity and offensive focus were insufficient. Was that because the players didn't have the stomach for another tough game? Were they lacking in heart? Were they apathetic? Sorry, but that dog don't hunt. The Red Raiders have competed hard for the vast majority of games this season. They didn't suddenly turn into bums between the Arizona and ASU games.
No, the far more logical explanation is that they were simply running on fumes. The victory over the Wildcats came at a cost. It depleted Texas Tech's energy reserves. And it is entirely possible that what energy remained was sapped by the two difficult practices leading up to the Arizona State game. So, when the ball was tapped, the Red Raiders just didn't have anything to give because they were tapped. You can't wring water from a dry sponge.
The players who seem most affected by the grind are, unsurprisingly, Christian Anderson and Jaylen Petty. Anderson has played virtually every minute in Big XII action and carries the burden of both orchestrating the offense and scoring. What's more, he is expected to rebound and be a plus-factor on defense. Augmenting the weight on Anderson, defenses are focusing their attack on him in the form of double-teams and blitzes of high ball screens. Given all this, it is hardly surprising that he was frazzled and seemingly distracted last night, and that he had probably the worst floor game of his Texas Tech career. It is quite clear to me that McCasland will either get Anderson some rest--in practice and perhaps in games, too--or he will ride the horse until it caves in. And if that happens, Texas Tech will be without its top two players.
As for Petty, he's a true freshman who has never gone through the Big XII mangle and the shock of it is taking its toll. On top of that, Petty is the smallest player in Texas Tech's rotation and is not yet built physically for the abuse that comes with playing in the Big XII. Pop Isaacs, in his freshman season in Lubbock, had a similar experience. Petty's apparent fatigue manifested in two poor games in the state of Arizona. They were probably the two worst consecutive games of the season for him. As with Anderson, Petty needs some surcease or he will be useless for the remainder of the season.
With Toppin gone and Anderson and Petty wearing down appreciably, Texas Tech's prospects appear grim. And certainly, there is no way this team can accomplish without Toppin what it might have with him. But the games remaining on the schedule must still be played and it only makes sense to do everything possible to win them. Fortunately, there are options that make finishing the season in reasonably good style possible.
Most obviously, players who have hitherto been used sparingly will have to play far more minutes and make the most of them. The two top candidates to make an impact are 6-foot-4 guard Leon Horner and 6-foot-8 forward Josiah Moseley. Horner's role will be to spell Anderson and Petty. Now he does not have the point guard skills of either and is somewhat prone to turnovers and defensive lapses, but he has also proven to be a clutch shooter from distance and in the mid-range. Horner is also a big-bodied guard who could prove to be a better rebounder than Anderson and Petty. Playing Horner bigger minutes will be a tradeoff, but McCasland has little choice, and I wouldn't be surprised if Horner rises to the occasion.
And incidentally, Jazz Henderson, a former walk-on, is another possible help at the guard position. He is built along similar lines as Petty, but should be as fresh as a daisy, and McCasland does seem to trust him some. The sample size is too small to be meaningful (33 minutes of play), but it is just possible he might be a serviceable backup point guard.
Moseley will unquestionably soak up many of the minutes that were going to Toppin. And while he's not yet the player Toppin is (Who in the college game is?), Moseley has looked good in limited action. He has played in only eight games, averaging eight minutes in them. Again, the sample size is small, but Moseley has hit 7-of-10 from the floor and 2-of-3 from the arc. He has also missed all three of his free throw attempts. Regardless, Moseley seems to be confident and comfortable on the offensive end, and he's got some chops as a scorer. And he was the Texas Gatorade Player of the Year in 2024, which strongly suggests he has considerable all-around talent. Moseley is about to get the opportunity to show it in the second-best basketball league on the planet.
From a tactical standpoint, particularly on offense, it will be interesting to see the ramifications of Toppin's absence. So much of Texas Tech's offense came out of various pick-and-roll actions between Anderson and Toppin. Alas, that was a two-sided axe. On the one hand, when executed properly, it was lethal, at times almost unstoppable. On the other, these actions automatically brought two defenders toward Anderson, which made doubling him all the easier. And Anderson didn't always handle the extra attention particularly well.
Without the Anderson-Toppin weapon in the arsenal, it is just possible that some of the pressure on Anderson will be relieved. He may play off the ball more and will presumably face fewer doubles. Also, without Toppin on the floor, Texas Tech will go five-out much more often, which will mean less congestion in the lane and more space for Anderson, Petty and Horner to operate. Now it is extremely unlikely that Texas Tech's offense will be as prolific without Toppin as with him, but if McCasland and assistant coach Jeff Linder make the right adjustments, some of the less experienced players step up, and the whole team benefits from a reduction in practice intensity, the dropoff may not be huge. The most telling part of Toppin's absence could be rebounding. The Red Raiders will emphasize gang rebounding now more than ever, but there's just no way to replace what Toppin brought to the glass. This area will be a struggle.