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Before the Warriors’ 121-110 loss to the Celtics, head coach Steve Kerr said Steph Curry’s lingering runner’s knee doesn’t change Golden State’s objective for the rest of the season.
Curry, who’s set to be re-evaluated in 10 days, will miss at least four games. Despite his extended absence, the Warriors are aiming to escape the play-in round with a strong close to the season. If not that, then advance through the play-in to put a scare in a top West seed in the first round.
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Losing Curry makes that exponentially harder. Even with him, the Warriors’ slim championship hopes evaporated with Jimmy Butler’s season-ending torn ACL.
Yet Kerr’s commitment to winning games isn’t lip service. The Warriors have no choice but to compete for the rest of the season. Joining the crowded tanking race by shutting down Curry and other veterans — or some half-measured, quiet-quitting variation of that — would be untenable and likely worthless.
The Warriors might’ve looked like a tanking team without Curry in Thursday’s blowout home loss to Boston. But they were competing, just as they intend to the rest of the way. The alternative is unpalatable.
At 29-27, Golden State is practically locked out of the bottom third of the league. Seven teams — Sacramento, Indiana, Washington, Brooklyn, Utah, Dallas, and Memphis — are playing for ping-pong balls. Three more (New Orleans, Milwaukee, and Chicago) are so comfortably behind the Warriors that even a second-half collapse likely wouldn’t make a difference.
Half the Warriors’ remaining 26 games come against effectively tanking teams (opens in new tab). They won’t even need Curry to win most of those. If they wanted to bottom out and fall for better lottery odds — emphasis: they don’t — they’d have to out-tank the tankers.
That’d require not just shutting down Curry but also resting other veterans on the team. Try telling Al Horford that his 19th season is over early. De’Anthony Melton is trying to prove that he can stay healthy for a full season. What do you think their reactions would be to the idea of selling out for a 1% chance at AJ Dybantsa?
Consider the current standings. The lowest the Warriors could reasonably fall would probably be below Atlanta. That’d give the Warriors the 12th worst record in the league. The reward? A 1.5% chance at the top pick and 7% odds at leapfrogging into the top-four.
Sacramento Kings have the worst record at 12-45 (.211), while Minnesota Timberwolves lead with 34-22 (.607) in this NBA standings table.
Would those hypothetical odds be worth it? The Mavericks, just last year, landed top prospect Cooper Flagg with 1.8% odds. This is a loaded draft.
From a completely cold, analytical perspective, the Warriors’ choices make for a decent debate. Would you rather have a 7% chance at a blue-chip prospect or, basically, a 1% chance at winning playoff rounds in the Western Conference?
But basketball isn’t a math equation. The Warriors have a sellout streak to extend, players to develop, and competitive habits to build. Waving the white flag for the last two months would jeopardize all of that.
The NBA has a severe tanking problem. It has only intensified this year, with a possibly generational draft class and teams that are incentivized to lose to maintain protected draft picks they traded.
The Warriors won’t be a part of it.
“It is not in my DNA, nor in this organization’s DNA, to do that,” owner Joe Lacob told The Standard’s Tim Kawakami. “I don’t know if you want to call it tanking; I don’t know if you want to call it whatever. It’s not a good look. This is sports. We’re supposed to play to win.”
The only valid reason to shut down Curry would be if the medical staff determines that playing could risk more serious harm. There has been no indication of that possibility to date, as MRIs have revealed no structural damage to his knee.
So, no, the Warriors aren’t going to tank the final 26 games. As long as they have 30, they have a shot to make some spring memories. That’s a fairly low bar to clear, and it’s far from the expectations they set before the season, but Butler’s injury recalibrated what’s possible.
What isn’t possible, unless Curry’s injury is more serious than anyone realizes, is bottoming out and purposely falling into the lottery.
As Kerr likes to say, there’s beauty in the struggle.
So, a struggle it will be.