It’s been said that hindsight is 20/20.
It likely depends on how far removed you are from what you’re trying to see. The past is a vacuous concept. Anything you do is in the past a milesecond later. Perhaps it’s most accurate to say that hindsight will eventually be 20/20.
Is it time to relitigate the Kevin Durant trade yet?
Probably not. We won’t have a comprehensive picture of the decision for another couple of years. That said, we’re over halfway through the first season of The Durant Experience. We can introduce the topic.
So, let’s.
Rockets didn’t spare much for Durant
It would not be fair to look at Jalen Green’s stats.
(Proceeds to take just a little peek at Jalen Green’s stats).
The former Rockets guard has played 11 games in the Valley. He’s averaging 24.8 points per 75 possessions, which is good, with a 46.1 True Shooting % (TS%), which is…
Unspeakably awful? Impervious to hyperbole?
Bad. It’s very bad.
Yet, it seems likely that injuries have hampered Green. He looks compromised. That’s unfortunate, but it’s only rational to observe that this looks like a wasted season for a 24-year-old with no time to waste.
Would he have gotten hurt in Houston? Now you’re invoking The Butterfly Effect. It’s too speculative, even if watching Green in Houston often felt like being in an episode of Punk’d.
(Ashton Kutcher).
Dillon Brooks is having a career year. He’s averaging 20.9 points per game. The Rockets miss Brooks. His point-of-attack defense would be useful this year. Put a pin in that.
Khaman Maluach is averaging 1.8 points and 1.6 rebounds per game. That said, there’s no reason to assume Houston would have drafted Maluach. They could have picked Cedric “I’m not a” Coward, who’s been sensational for the Grizzlies, and was selected one spot later.
Again, we’re getting too hypothetical. Other than Coward, there’s nobody left on the board you’d look at and even entertain over having Kevin Durant, besides Derek Queen, who distinctly could not play alongside Alperen Sengun. For argument’s sake, let’s say Houston gave up Green, Brooks, and the median player picked between 10th and, say, 20th in a wide-open 2025 NBA Draft for Kevin Durant.
Rockets’ Durant trade is aging…decently?
I’ll say this: I’d rather have Coward and Brooks than Durant right now.
Call it a hot take. Coward is young and very much a player the Rockets’ young core could conceptually use. The Rockets could gradually phase Green out as they phased Coward in. They’d have less intense expectations and a clearer future outlook.
Now, they’re downright confusing. Is this team operating on Durant’s time, or the young guns? We’ve been over this ad nauseam, but if Houston hadn’t made the Durant trade, we wouldn’t have to.
That said…
If we assume Houston doesn’t draft Coward, this was still (in my opinion) the right decision. A flailing Green, good veteran, and some kind of Noa Essengue or Joan Beringer (both intriguing young players, to be clear) remains an excellent price for Kevin Durant.
Some fans will evaluate strictly through the lens of result. It seems more reasonable to factor process into your analysis. The Rockets made this deal under the pretense that it gave them a fighting chance of winning an NBA title in 2025-26. Fred VanVleet’s injury dashed those dreams.
If you’re still a Green truther…I don’t know what to tell you. It would be generous to say that he’s on track to be Zach LaVine. If you’re unfamiliar with LaVine, he’s the guy who averages 20 points per game every year and, somehow, is untradeable at the deadline because of how little impact he has on his team’s success.
That’s not to say Green can’t succeed. Any number larger than zero is not zero. There’s a non-zero chance he wins an MVP award in his career, but it’s likely less than one percent. The more likely result is that the centerpiece of the Durant deal is a player the Rockets won’t miss.
They had lots of time to draw that conclusion.