INDIANAPOLIS — For the first time in modern history, the Bears are preparing to double down on a quarterback they drafted. As general manager Ryan Poles manages his roster, he’s factoring in the likelihood of a major contract extension for Caleb Williams.
He brought it up unprompted at the NFL Scouting Combine this week, and it’s by far the most certain the Bears have sounded about the position in more than a decade since they were all-in on Jay Cutler.
When asked about navigating the tightest salary-cap crunch of his tenure this offseason, Poles mentioned the potential champagne problem of soon having to work around a highly paid quarterback like the league’s best teams usually do.
“I hope eventually to have a quarterback situation, too, where we’ve got to pay a young quarterback,” he said. “We’re getting closer and closer to clarity on that side of things.”
He stopped short of a definitive statement and had plenty to say about areas in which Williams must progress, but that was absolutely stunning to hear from someone running the Bears.
Neither of their last two first-round picks at quarterback, Justin Fields and Mitch Trubisky, got anywhere near this conversation.
The fact that the Bears are even calculating the cost of signing Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in 2024, to an extension is a landmark for the organization as it bets on coach Ben Johnson accelerating his development.
It’s far from a foregone conclusion, of course, and Poles was quick to tap the brakes when pressed on how confident he is in committing to Williams.
For all the thrills of the past season, there were a lot of ups and downs and some key boxes remained unchecked. Williams has high-end capability, but needs to master the basics and become more efficient. He isn’t eligible for an extension until this time next year and has quite a bit to prove before then.
He set the Bears’ single-season record with 3,942 yards passing, was sixth in the NFL with 27 touchdown passes, threw just seven interceptions, pulled off a dazzling string of comebacks and delivered the Bears’ first playoff win in 15 years. He also finished 22nd in passer rating at 90.1 and last in completion percentage at 58.1.
“I want to be clear: Anyone that’s watched the league long enough knows that for quarterback play, it’s consistency,” Poles said. “Can you stack years on top of each other? We still have steps to go. I don’t want to make it like he’s already [there]. He knows he’s got work to do.
“But if all of that falls into place, we have to understand how that changes our formula as we move forward. That’s a great thing to be on that path. I feel like we have a long-term quarterback solution. It makes me excited.”
If he’s right, it means the clock is winding down on the precious opportunity of Williams’ rookie-contract window.
Since the NFL began pre-slotting rookie deals, teams have tried to take advantage of what could be an incredible discount at the most expensive position. Williams will make just $10.8 million this season and $12.6 million in 2027, whereas 16 quarterbacks have an average salary of $40 million or higher.
If the Bears get elite play from Williams over those two seasons for a bargain price, they can spend big elsewhere to build a championship-caliber roster. In the last eight seasons, the Rams (Jared Goff), Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Bengals (Joe Burrow), Eagles (Jalen Hurts) and Patriots (Drake Maye) all made the Super Bowl during their quarterback’s rookie contract, and the Chiefs won one.
Poles downplayed whether there’s “pressure” to make that kind of run this season or next, but acknowledged, “Financially, you can field the best team when that quarterback isn’t taking up a massive piece of the cap.”
Once it’s time to pay the quarterback, the math changes dramatically. Those teams are forced to cut corners and offload expensive players — it’s partly why Chiefs left guard Joe Thuney was available to the Bears last year — and hope their star quarterback is good enough to overcome it.
It’s a much better problem to have than going back to the draft every few years still searching for a quarterback.
The last wave of quarterback contract extensions was two years ago, when the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence and the Packers’ Jordan Love got $55 million per year. ESPN projected Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to get something close to that this offseason despite choppy play the last two seasons.
Those numbers only go up. Williams, or any other extension-eligible quarterback like Maye, the Broncos’ Bo Nix or the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, doesn’t necessarily have to outplay the top quarterbacks to out-earn them. If the salary cap goes up around 8% next season, the next round of quarterback deals probably will as well.
That makes the upcoming season pivotal in so many ways. For Williams, this is the time to prove he’s the guy. For the Bears, it’s imperative that they establish themselves as legitimate contenders. If both happen, it’ll truly be a new era.