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Popular wisdom has taken hold in recent months that former Indiana star and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is the presumptive No. 1 overall pick with the 2026 NFL Draft commences April 23 in Pittsburgh.
Not so fast, says ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky. Appearing on First Take on Thursday morning, the USA Hockey sweater-clad Orlovsky said that the game tape of former Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson outshined that of similar tape of Mendoza through the first half of the 2025-26 season.
“I’m through eight games now (of Mendoza’s tape), you see good but there is a lot of underwhelming,” Orlovsky said. “I understand his season finishes strong. But there aren’t a lot of big-time throws, a lot of clean pockets, and a ton of RPO’s and back-shoulder fades. You’re looking at a guy and say ‘First pick?’
“I think through eight games, Ty Simpson’s tape at Alabama is significantly more impressive than Fernando Mendoza’s.”
According to Kalshi, Mendoza is a near-lock in the “players drafted Top 10” prediction market. But where does Simpson stand?
Orlovsky was then asked if Mendoza is the clear-cut No. 1 overall selection or if Simpson might be a better choice.
“I’m not there,” Orkovsky said to the audible chagrin of co-host Stephen A. Smith. “That’s through half the season, though. I haven’t gotten to the back seven or eight games yet.”
"Ty Simpson’s tape from Alabama, through the first eight games of the season, is significantly more impressive than Fernando Mendoza’s" – Dan Orlovsky pic.twitter.com/78O9rTt14t
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) February 26, 2026
David Wasson
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.