INDIANAPOLIS — The chances of the Las Vegas Raiders keeping the No. 1 pick and selecting Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza have been creeping closer to a guarantee even before the Heisman Trophy winner makes his first formal appearance at the NFL scouting combine Friday.
Not that there was ever much doubt.
The latest, albeit somewhat subtle, sign was a rare one-for-one player trade made Thursday between the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans.
The move occurred days after Jets general manager Darren Mougey chuckled when asked if he would have a conversation with the Raiders in Indianapolis about trading up to the No. 1 pick to draft Mendoza. The Jets have the second pick.
Mougey worked with Raiders general manager John Spytek when both were scouts for the Denver Broncos from 2013 to 2015.
“I talk to Spytek and those guys often, as I do with other teams,” Mougey said. “Talking about moving up and moving back. Absolutely we will talk about all of those things, but I don’t think that’s happening.
“You can ask Spytek, though.”
Top two spots set?
Spytek’s answer was less definitive, as he said the team is “always listening” to trade proposals. Of course, he has reason to keep the door open. No player or pick is untouchable for the right offer, so there is no reason to stifle conversations this early in the process.
But Mougey’s trade Thursday could be a clue that he doesn’t see a possibility of moving up in the draft.
The Jets sent edge rusher Jermaine Johnson to the Titans for defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat.
Moving on from the former first-round pick could be a clear sign the Jets plan to stay at No. 2 and pick one of the elite edge rushers from the class.
While that doesn’t guarantee the Jets wouldn’t try to make a move to No. 1, it appears less of a possibility now than it did 24 hours ago when it was already slim. Mendoza is a -20,000 favorite to go No. 1, which means a $2,000 bet would win $10.
The quarterback-starved Jets were considered among the most likely teams to try to make an aggressive move to that spot.
They also have the 16th pick, and two selections in the top half of the first round would have been a good starting point for an offer.
No other team has that kind of capital this year, so any other offer would need to include far more in future assets.
Defensive players shine
Should the Jets remain at No. 2, or the Raiders unexpectedly trade down, some candidates emerged Thursday on the first day of on-field drills at the combine.
Ohio State defensive star Arvell Reese backed up the hype with a sensational day at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Reese, who could be a Micah Parsons-type player as a linebacker who can rush off the edge in passing situations, ran a 4.46 in the 40-yard dash, measuring at 6 feet, 4 inches and 241 pounds.
He was just as dominant in every other drill of the session.
His Ohio State teammate, linebacker Sonny Styles, equaled the 40 time and was the other star of the evening session.
The other player in the mix for that spot worked out earlier in the day and did not disappoint, as the collective group of linebackers and defensive linemen posted the fastest times in combine history.
David Bailey of Texas Tech posted a 4.51 in the 40 and backed up his elite production in college with a great day overall.
One of the only questions about him at this point is that he will be 23 on Week 1.
Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on X.