The Chicago Bears are in unfamiliar territory this year. They haven’t selected outside of the top 20 in the 1st round since 2011. That will change this year, as they sit at 25th overall following their successful playoff run. It’s led to plenty of speculation about what the team will do. They won’t have the benefit of a top-10 selection like in the past three years, giving them ample opportunities to land a difference-making talent. Bears general manager Ryan Poles has used a somewhat similar strategy throughout that time.
Not anymore.
He admitted at his recent scouting combine press conference that the team’s strategy must change this year. In the top 10, you can afford to take calculated risks on talent because most of the players that high have the proper work ethic and mental wiring. As the round goes on, that changes. Soon, you’re choosing between guys who are unproven on tape but have crazy athletic upside or guys who were productive but may not have the highest ceiling. From Poles’ perspective, the Bears must lean towards the latter.
“You can go get a flashy guy that may not (have) the wiring in terms of culture fit,” Poles said. “(That) isn’t the right thing to do. You take a chance there. Or he flashes or they are a young player and you’re going to project this crazy growth.
“I think taking good football players at 25. I think back to the Steelers, I think back to the Ravens and some of these teams that were able to put really good rosters together and draft well late. Those guys aren’t sexy. They’re just good, hearty football players. So that’s what we’re going to focus on. I think that will put our team in the best position to be successful.”
Ryan Poles is correct to follow the example of Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
When you look at their track record going back to 2000, both teams employ largely the same strategy when picking the 20s. They’re not focused on specific positions. Instead, they circle guys who they think fit their specific identity. Most importantly, the majority of them have at least two years of experience as a starter. In fact, the most successful ones had three or four. Of the seven players listed below who went on to become Pro Bowlers, five of them had three years or more of starting experience.
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Team Year Pick Player Position College Starts (Seasons)
Steelers 2025 21 Derrick Harmon DT 2 Seasons (15 starts at MSU, 14 at Oregon)
Ravens 2025 27 Malaki Starks S 3 Seasons
Steelers 2024 20 Troy Fautanu OT 2 Seasons (Started 29 games)
Ravens 2023 22 Zay Flowers WR 3 Seasons (4-year contributor)
Steelers 2022 20 Kenny Pickett QB 4 Seasons (Started 49 games)
Ravens 2022 25 Tyler Linderbaum C 3 Seasons (Started 35 consecutive games)
Steelers 2021 24 Najee Harris RB 2 Seasons (Started 25 of 55 games)
Ravens 2021 27 Rashod Bateman WR 3 Seasons (Started all 13 games as freshman)
Ravens 2020 28 Patrick Queen LB 1 Season (16 career starts)
Ravens 2019 25 Marquise Brown WR 2 Seasons (Junior college transfer)
Steelers 2018 28 Terrell Edmunds S 3 Seasons (Started 31 of 37 games)
Ravens 2018 25 Hayden Hurst TE 2 Seasons (Former pro baseball player)
Steelers 2016 25 Artie Burns CB 2 Seasons (Started as sophomore and junior)
Steelers 2015 22 Bud Dupree OLB 3 Seasons (Started 38 games)
Ravens 2015 26 Breshad Perriman WR 2 Seasons (Started 25 games)
Steelers 2012 24 David DeCastro G 3 Seasons (Started 39 consecutive games)
Ravens 2011 27 Jimmy Smith CB 3 Seasons (Full-time starter final three years)
Ravens 2009 23 Michael Oher OT 4 Seasons (Started 47 consecutive games)
Steelers 2008 23 Rashard Mendenhall RB 1 Season (Primary starter in final year)
Ravens 2007 29 Ben Grubbs G 3 Seasons (Started 38 consecutive games)
Steelers 2006 25 Santonio Holmes WR 3 Seasons
Ravens 2005 22 Mark Clayton WR 3 Seasons
Ravens 2002 24 Ed Reed S 4 Seasons
If the Bears adhere to a similar strategy, the list of prospects narrows.
It is impossible to tell for certain which players will be available at #25. However, we can at least compile a group of names that have a reasonable chance of being there. Here is a list of those with 3 or more years of starting experience in college.
Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (3)
Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman (3)
Miami edge rusher Akheem Mesidor (4)
Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods (3)
Clemson defensive end T.J. Parker (3)
Texas A&M edge rusher Cashius Howell (3)
Missouri edge rusher Zion Young (3)
Texas linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. (3)
Alabama left tackle Kadyn Proctor (3)
Illinois edge rusher Gabe Jacas (3)
Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (3)
From there, it comes down to who Ryan Poles, head coach Ben Johnson, and the team brass prefer. The Bears know they’re in a tricky position. While they just made the playoffs, they still have no clear left tackle and are undergoing a significant restructure on defense. They absolutely cannot afford to miss on that 25th pick. That is probably why they’re a little more risk-averse than they might be if they were sitting higher.
Notably, this was the approach Chicago used in the 1980s. William Perry started three seasons, Neal Anderson started three seasons, and Brad Muster started four seasons. All three helped keep the Bears competitive through the rest of the decade.