Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza going first overall to the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2026 NFL draft is the worst-kept secret in the world.
In fact, it might be the biggest shock in draft history if Vegas doesn't take him given its clear need at the position, how spectacularly Geno Smith flopped last season, and minority owner Tom Brady making it clear finding a franchise signal-caller for newly hired head coach and offensive guru Klint Kubiak was a top priority.
The general consensus is Mendoza is far and away the best QB in the class, but given the rough shape the Raiders' roster is in, it's tough to see him really making much of an impact in Year 1 in a division that also features the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers.
However, ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. believes if the Raiders make a few tweaks, Mendoza could actually be a difference-maker as a rookie.
"New coach Klint Kubiak will want a signal-caller to build his offense around," Kiper wrote in his recent mock draft. "Mendoza is the No. 1 prospect on my board and far and away the best QB in the class. He is competitive and precise with his ball location.
"If the Raiders bring in a receiver or two during free agency and maybe shore up the O-line a bit, this offense could take a step forward with Mendoza, Kubiak, running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers."
The Raiders ranked last in the NFL in total offense (245.2 yards per game) and 28th in passing offense (167.7 yards per game) last season, so Mendoza certainly has his work cut out for him.
If Mendoza puts up numbers similar to what he did at Indiana, the Raiders could possibly jump from the worst offense in the NFL to a middle-of-the-pack unit, which may not seem like a big deal, but considering the failures the team has had with drafting QBs over the last two decades (Marques Tuiasosopo, Andrew Walter, JaMarcus Russell, Connor Cook, Aidan O’Connell), any sign of potential should be considered a win.
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