Which loss was more disappointing?
The fake comeback versus the depleted Thunder or the 15-point collapse against San Antonio?
Up against the two top teams in the West, the Raptors weren’t able to steal a win on home court.
That pushes their record to 4-15 against the Top 10 teams in the league.
If we’re being critical, three of those wins came against depleted versions of the Cavaliers, while the other was against OKC, who were short four rotation players.
It’s a fitting encapsulation of where the team stands this season; they’re one step short of true championship contention.
On the other side of the coin, though, Toronto has taken care of business up against the lottery-bound teams.
They own a symmetrical 15-4 record against the current Bottom 10.
They come into tonight as 13.5-point favourites; their second-largest spread only behind a November contest against the Wizards as well.
With two days off prior to a critical showdown with New York, it’s essentially a must-win for Toronto.
Here are the bets I think align with that result.
The following three legs via FanDuel’s YourWay feature pays +232 at the time of writing.
**Immanuel Quickley 16+ points**
Nobody has benefited more from Jakob Poeltl’s return than IQ.
Over these past five games, he’s scoring a team-best 20.2 ppg and doing it on 48/42/79 shooting splits.
With Poeltl around, Quickley has been able to work through him in the halfcourt, opening himself up for spot-up threes or drives towards the paint.
Eye-test-wise, he also seems to be playing with increased aggression, which is a welcome sign for this Raptors offence.
His points in the paint have jumped up by 36 percent since Poeltl returned.
Washington owns the worst net rating on the year and third-worst defensive rating.
They have been particularly generous to three-point shooters as of late.
Since the All-Star Break, the Wizards have allowed 44.9 percent of their opponent’s shot diet to come from beyond the arc which ranks league worst.
**Ja’Kobe Walter 6+ points**
Getting Walter on this SGP correlates to my belief that the Raptors will take care of business.
Coming off two disappointing losses, I’m expecting Toronto to not take this game for granted.
In that scenario, I’m counting on more contributions from the Raptors bench.
Walter has a 25 percent lift in scoring playing the Bottom 10 teams versus the Top 10.
Additionally, since Walter returned from injury, he has quietly jumped ahead of Gradey Dick on the depth chart.
He sits at 22.3 mpg over the past 12 games versus Dick’s 15.6.
First and foremost, he brings a defensive intensity against opposing playmakers that Dick cannot offer.
That in itself justifies his heightened minutes.
But since the All-Star Break, he’s also found his offence shooting 44.0 percent from deep and averaging 9.6 ppg.
With Washington’s weaknesses, the same ones that supports IQ’s scoring, I think this is an underpriced line.
**Tre Johnson under 17 points**
Trying to anticipate Washington’s minutes distribution might be a task even AI couldn’t solve.
Just like many of the other teams fighting for the first overall pick, the Wizards have displayed zero intention of winning games.
They beat Indiana on a back-to-back post-ASW, but that’s another team heavily incentivized to throw games.
Win or lose, their rotation minutes have been incredibly suspicious.
Johnson is their sixth-overall pick from the 2025 draft; you’d expect his development to be critical towards their future.
Instead, Johnson has failed to clear 24 minutes in any game since the break.
He’s completely sat out four of the last five fourth quarters regardless of game result.
Washington has made a point to split their minutes evenly between their A-squad and B-squad.
Canadian Will Riley has earned the most minutes coming off the bench at 22.2 mpg.
With Johnson averaging just 20.2 mpg, he’d have to score at a near point per minute pace to clear this line.
Toronto’s defence has been its calling card all season, and I expect its wings to put up enough resistance to keep Johnson’s mid-range scoring at bay.