Hugo Ekitike has claimed that he should have scored more than the 16 goals he has managed for Liverpool since arriving from Eintracht Frankfurt last summer.
The Frenchman made it 11 in the Premier League with a well-taken effort against West Ham on Saturday, but spoke out after the game to admit his tally could have been better.
Ekitike said he is ‘not that happy’ with his form in front of goal, and though many Liverpool fans are likely to disagree, he has indeed missed some big chances in recent weeks.
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Liverpool coach Aaron Briggs pictured during the warm-up ahead of Arsenal vs Liverpool in the Premier League at the Emirates Stadium (Credit: Getty Images/Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA).
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Luckily, the arrival of xG in football has made it easy to quantify claims of over or underperformance in terms of taking chances. So, what do the numbers say about Ekitike?
Ekitike is overperforming in the Premier League
One of the biggest worries about Ekitike when Liverpool were rumoured to be in for him last summer was his underperformance for Eintracht.
The 23-year-old scored ‘only’ 15 from an xG of 21.67, or 14 non-penalty goals from an xG of 19.31. Either way, he did not hit the net as often as the data said he should.
This season, domestically at least, Ekitike has actually ironed out some of those issues. As per the numbers, the France international should have scored 9.55 goals. He has 11.
Liverpool v West Ham United - Premier League
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Unfortunately, his wastefulness has still been seen in the Champions League, where Ekitike has scored two goals from an xG of 4.62. That could do with improving.
He does have one goal from 0.52 in the FA Cup, though, and one from 1.03 in the Carabao Cup, putting a bit of gloss on his numbers overall.
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Ekitike is still missing big chances
Although he is looking better in the bigger picture, and really should not be too hard on himself, it is clear that Ekitike is still missing big chances for Liverpool.
Heading has been his real problem, and he missed very good openings against all of Man City, Sunderland and Nottingham Forest. Respectively, those headed efforts represented an xG of 0.32, 0.24 and 0.56. Ekitike did not score from any of them.
The former Eintracht man also missed a very presentable opportunity against Newcastle, which racked up 0.37 on the xG scale. To put things into context, the average penalty is worth around 0.75 xG.
On the flipside of that, Ekitike generally scores goals from positions he perhaps should not have. His memorable outside-of-the-boot finish against the Magpies, for example, held an xG of only 0.11, while his effort on Saturday was even less of a chance, coming in at just 0.05 xG.
This paints a picture of a player who, while he may miss some good opportunities, is very good at turning half chances into goals.
The misses stick more in the memory owing to the occasional glaring nature of them, and perhaps this is what Ekitike is lingering on. But, after being damned with the data last season, he should be pleased to hear that things are very much looking up for him at Liverpool. Improvements can be made, but as a young player in a new league, he is very much on the right track.
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