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Analyst reveals expected Dolphins timeline on Tua Tagovailoa decision

The Miami Dolphins have made it clear that this offseason, it's a full-on reset for the franchise, and that means a host of key players are set to walk out the door...or be pushed.

The big-ticket item on Miami's menu is what the franchise will do with Tua Tagovailoa.

Set to have a huge cap number ($56 million per Over The Cap), it is clear the Dolphins don't want to move forward with Tua. A trade or release has been rumored to be the options Miami is considering.

But when could we see movement?

ESPN's Dan Graziano, after talking with people at the scouting combine in Indianapolis, offered his thoughts.

"The Dolphins continue to tell people that they've had trade talks with teams and haven't given up on trying to trade Tagovailoa, even though that would mean picking up a significant portion of his $54 million in fully guaranteed 2026 salary," Graziano writes. "But based on my conversations with other teams, I'm skeptical, and I expect Miami to release Tagovailoa by the third day of the league year (when $3 million of his 2027 salary would become fully guaranteed)."

More: ESPN highlights tough place Vikings are with J.J. McCarthy

Dolphins set for huge financial hit with Tua

Given Tua's contract, whatever happens, either a release or trade, the Dolphins are set to be hit between the eyes financially.

Per Over the Cap, a pre-June 1 cut will see the team eat $99 million in dead money, and a post-June 1 cut, the franchise eats $67 million. A pre-June 1 trade will still see Miami eat $45 million, and a post-June 1 trade will see the Dolphins eat just $13 million and save $42 million.

But who is trading for Tua when the entire NFL world knows Miami wants him out? Likely no one.

So, no matter what happens, it appears the Dolphins are going to be hit with a huge financial loss.

And they are seemingly just fine with that.

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