Basketball Reference, the invaluable stats website, keeps a running list of its top 10 NBA MVP candidates. The ranking is "based on a model built using previous voting results."
The model may need some tweaking. Because right now, Timberwolves superstar Anthony Edwards is not one of the ten names listed — and a couple of the players who made the cut over him have an approximately 0.0 percent chance to win the MVP award.
Here's the list, which was posted by one of the big X/Twitter aggregation pages on Monday:
1. Nikola Jokić, DEN
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC
3. Cade Cunningham, DET
4. Luka Dončić, LAL
5. Victor Wembanyama, SAS
6. Jalen Duren, DET
7. Tyrese Maxey, PHI
8. Kevin Durant, HOU
9. Jaylen Brown, BOS
10. Chet Holmgren, OKC
Right away, two names jump out. What could possibly be the justification for Duren and Holmgren making the cut? Both are having great seasons, but they're also on the same team as superstar guards who are in the top three of the above list. When has the No. 2 option on a team ever won MVP? That's just not how it works. If you aren't viewed as the best player on your own team, you aren't going to be voted as the most valuable player in the entire league.
I agree with the top five of BR's list. But after that, Edwards has as good of a case as anyone to be in the No. 6 spot. You can make an argument to put him over each of Maxey, Durant, and Brown.
Edwards is third in the league in scoring at 29.5 points per game, behind only Luka and SGA. He's shooting 49 percent from the floor and 40 percent from deep. His 3.7 assists per game are a blemish on his resume compared to other MVP candidates, but Ant is a good defender (most of the time) who averages more stocks (steals and blocks combined) than Doncic, Brown, and Durant. Edwards is also shooting a remarkable 56 percent in clutch time this season.
Anthony Edwards
Anthony Edwards | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Edwards probably isn't a true MVP candidate this season due to his lack of playmaking stats, some inconsistency in defensive effort, and the Timberwolves' less-than-elite team record. But to say he's not in the top ten is just silly. With 21 games left, Edwards should still have a chance to push for an All-NBA first team selection for the first time in his career, especially if any other top players dip below the 65-game threshold.