Mike Evans A “Boom Or Bust” Free Agent
March 3rd, 2026
Gamble to sign?
Joe would gladly take a chance on the “boom.”
Are there questions with dropping tens of millions of Team Glazer loot in Mike Evans’ lap? A couple. Mostly due to his durability.
Sure, Evans always has hamstring issues. Joe doesn’t expect that to change no matter where Evans plays. And given how he broke his collarbone last year and missed a bunch of games as a result, is that a sign Evans may be turning brittle?
Matt Okada of NFL.com has a list of free agents that he believes are all boom-or-bust candidates. Evans is one.
With Evans set to turn 33 years old in August, it’s fair to wonder whether the six-time Pro Bowler has lost a step over the last couple years.
Evans posted a career low in yards per reception in 2024 (13.6) and then again in 2025 (12.3). His yards per route run (1.6), catch rate (48.4%) and passer rating when targeted (69.8) all hit new career lows in 2025, as well, and he scored just three touchdowns in eight games after totaling 24 over the previous two seasons. It’s that 2023-24 output that keeps Evans high in most free-agent rankings: No one recorded more receiving touchdowns over that span.
Whether Evans finally plays somewhere new or returns to the Bucs, the question will be whether he still has the juice to be an outside WR1 and dominate in the red zone — and whether the price reflects the production. If so, he’ll be an excellent signing. If not, he could be an aging cap sink.
Well, Joe saw Evans in training camp last year — every practice (Joe hasn’t missed a Bucs training camp practice in like three years) — and Evans may have had the best training camp of his career. He just worked the Bucs defense (poor Benjamin Morrison). The only guy who seemed to slow Evans down was Jamel Dean.
Now were Evans’ numbers down because of Josh Grizzard? Perhaps. Evans sure looked like he had the juice when he piled up 132 yards on Atlanta on Thursday Night Football.
But to be fair to Okada, the history of receivers being stars in their 30s is more outlier than the norm.