Each of the four NFC North teams is over the salary cap as it currently stands, and each has plenty of levers to pull to delete talent or kick the can down the road and try to compete in the coming season. Let's talk about it.
Note that I am writing this on Sunday afternoon; it was just reported that the Vikings will cut Aaron Jones and Javon Hargrave. Any other news hasn't happened yet.
Vikings
($45mm) in cap space
The Vikings are in the worst position in the division and one of the worst in the league. They are $45mm above the cap, and they don't even have a veteran QB using millions of cap dollars. They just have a history of bad decisions.
Like I said in the intro, veterans Aaron Jones and Javon Hargrave have already been informed that they will be released. That frees up about $18.6mm. So, what's next?
Cutting Jonathan Allen and Brian O'Neil would basically get them to break even on the cap, and then restructuring Justin Jefferson gets them about $18mm in cap space. Plenty to sign their draft picks and get a QB, as long as they kick the can on the QB contract, too.
It's worth noting that the restructure would put Jefferson's cap hit at at least $56mm in 2028, his age 29 season. Maybe he'll be worth a third contract at or before that point, but it's a big bet to make for a receiver who has already regressed. Meanwhile, those cuts would leave them without a consistent pass rusher on the interior and any offensive lineman who graded above average last season. Not great!
Let's repeat that: to get to where the team can sign its draft picks and maybe do one other signing, they would be cutting Aaron Jones, Brian O'Neil, Jonathan Allen, and Javon Hargrave and then max restructuring Justin Jefferson.
Obviously, there are other moves. They could save $9mm in a Christian Darrisaw restructure and plenty of money restructuring other players: $13mm on Jonathan Greenard, $9.5mm on TJ Hockenson, $11mm on Byron Murphy, $9mm on Will Fries. They could also save $8.8mm cutting Hockenson.
They're going to have to fiddle with some contracts or cut more guys, that's all there is to it. Any player they cut makes the team worse, and any contract they fiddle with makes the cap worse in the coming years. All this and they don't even have a QB.
Lions
($12mm) in cap space
The Lions sort of do have a quarterback, and that's the problem. Jared Goff's cap hit of $69.6mm is insane. Max restructure him, and you get the hit down to $29mm. That puts you at $28mm in space - plenty of room to sign the draft class and one or two free agents. You have to make sacrifices as a playoff team. That's fine, right?
It's fine if you want a 34-year-old Goff playing on an unavoidable $80mm cap hit in 2028. In other words, hell no.
So, what do you do? Taylor Deceker has started the retirement waffling. If he leaves, that basically gets you to break even. It also leaves you without a starting left tackle when your offensive line's regression last season led to several losses, but that's for another day. If they use shenanigans to have that hit post-June 1, it would save $17.9mm, but remember: that puts part of the cap hit on 2027, and it means they have to use other moves to get under the cap before the league year starts because the Decker savings wouldn't come until June 1.
There's not much left to save with cuts. David Montgomery at $3.5mm, Graham Glasgow at $5.6mm, Jack Fox (no clue who that is) at $3.1mm. Maybe they'll cut one or two of those guys, but it doesn't really move the needle.
With restructures, we know they have the $40mm lever with Goff, they can also free up $21mm with the Sun God, $17mm with Alim McNeil, $15mm with Penei Sewell, $5.2mm with Derrick Barnes, or $10.5mm with DJ Reed. How many of those moves do you really want to make? By restructuring, you're all but guaranteeing that you will give that player a third contract. I would do Sewell for sure. Barnes and Reed are already on bad deals. Alim McNeil was the 90th-ranked DT last season. The Sun God would be a 29-year-old slow receiver. Not a lot of good options!
I would guess that they will cut a few guys and do partial restructures on a few. But they have definite holes on the team right now, have to sign their draft class and have extensions for players like Aidan Hutchinson and Brian Branch and Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta and Jack Campbell on the horizon. The good news is that Terrion Arnold is a bust, so they don't have to worry about that.
Three of those guys are definitely in the team's top five players. Sam LaPorta was last off-season before he got hurt. This is what happens when the GM falls in love with his draft picks and gives everyone with one good season (Kerby Joseph, Alim McNeil, Jameson Williams, Derrick Barnes) an inflated contract and overspends on free agents (DJ Reed, Graham Glasgow). You have to make really tough decisions when the actually good players come up for a new deal.
Bears
($6.5mm) in cap space
You may be thinking, "Wow, the Bears really are a model franchise; they have the best cap non-space in the division because they are only $6.5mm over the cap." You're missing the fact that they AREN'T PAYING A DAMN QB. How are these teams screwing up their cap space this badly without paying a QB???
I can tell you how the Bears did it. They're paying DJ Moore $27mm this year. Montez Sweat, Jaylon Johnson, Joe Thuney, Dayo Odeyingobo and Jonah Jackson are all over $19.5mm in cap hit. Grady Jarret is at $18.9mm and Tremaine Edmunds is at $17.4mm.
That's a lot of money for a lot of OK players.
We know they're trying to trade DJ Moore and Tremaine Edmunds. Do those two trades and get rid of Cole Kmet ,and all of a sudden, they have $25mm in space as free agency starts. Cap magic!
Try not to think about how they're getting rid of two former first-round picks and a second-round pick to do it, or how they would have a total of $17.6mm in dead cap to do it.
The best-case scenario for the Bears' offseason is that they would pay $17.6mm to not have two former first-round picks. Remember, this team was one of the luckiest in the league last season. Almost all analytics point to a regression this year. Any move to get rid of good players just to function will make the team worse.