The NFL Scouting Combine is a tool in a toolbox. The problem is that tool is the only tool in the toolbox most spectators can see. However, all too often fans and spectators think that tool is Fix It Felix’ hammer. A mythical tool that can fix anything by hitting something with it.
Just because a prospect participated in the Combine and didn’t look objectively bad, does not necessarily mean their stock is up or they are flying up draft boards. In a pre-Draft process where most spectators are unable to see most of that process, the Combine is the one thing they get to see and make determinations about.
The concern with this practice of seeing one aspect of the process and promoting everyone’s draft stock is that it is a pendulum effect. Everyone can’t move up. When people raise players in their minds based on not falling flat in Indianapolis, it creates a situation where those same spectators are confused when those players get selected much later than they expected.
The other significant factor that is created by this jump in perceived draft stock is people end up creating a disproportionate view of draft value. Everyone good becomes a top 50-75 player, rounds 3-5 are no man’s land, and anyone not taken by the 5th round might as well go sell real estate or insurance for a living.
The NFL Draft is a puzzle, not a race to get one favorite player.
QB Drew Allar – Penn State
In 2025 Allar decided to stay at Penn State and not declare for the 2025 Draft. His final season was marred with injury. At the Combine Allar showed no ill effects from that broken ankle. That is all that should be said about Allar post Combine.
Did he throw the ball far? Yes, but that’s what he was expected to do. The issues with Allar are not arm strength related. Allar is a statue most of the time. Around 80% of his big plays come with a completely clean pocket. When he moves, he tends to move in a predictable straight line.
Allar’s draft stock is exactly where it is expected to be. A guy who can throw it a mile, coming off a significant injury, who already had questions that should place him outside the first two rounds if not the first two days.
WR KC Concepcion – Texas A&M
At 5’11 and 190lbs Concepcion fits within range of the modern NFL receiver size. The 4.43 forty time does match some of his play on tape, especially in the return game. However, people are getting carried away. The concerns around Concepcion typically all fall within one concept. Concentration and focus.
He has a drop rate of about 10%. While that might not sound that bad, it is something that gives general managers a moment’s pause. Concepcion is a nice receiver. He has potential to become a better pro than a college player. However, that does not make him a first-round player. He had arguably as many as six receivers ahead of him.
OT Kadyn Proctor – Alabama
You can count on one hand the number of offensive tackles who have been successful over 6’6. Those names are Jonathan Ogden who is in the conversation of greatest LTs ever, Walter Jones another hall of famer and Tyron Smith. Proctor is neither of them. When we look at OTs over 360lbs the number gets smaller.
Proctor is big. Scary, concerningly big. The most recent OT in the NFL over 6’6 and 360lbs is Browns RT Dawand Jones. Jones has started 20 games out of 51 in his three-year career. Football players are big, but they aren’t supposed to be that big. When a player is this big, they must maintain a certain physique to even be effective.
If Proctor’s tape graded out like an Ogden or Walter Jones, this would be very different. For him to go as high as fans and some media are projecting him, he’d either have to have much better tape or be a significantly smaller player. In today’s game, anything over 6’5 and 330 is a concern.
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DT Kayden McDonald – Ohio State
The saving grace for McDonald is his tape. The tape alone is good enough to put McDonald somewhere in round 2. He needed to look great at the Combine to raise above a second round grade. The problem is he looked less than advertised.
McDonald displayed a couple stumbles in the drill work and didn’t look as quick as his tape would suggest. He is not a candidate to slide necessarily, but he is a case where some teams will want to revisit his tape and hope he does better at Ohio State’s Pro Day. If that checks out, his draft stock pre and post Combine should remain unchanged.
LB Jacob Rodriguez – Texas Tech
Rodriguez might be the feel-good story of the year. There is literally nothing to not like about him on or off the field as a person and the kind of football player he is. He is an effort guy and arguably the heartbeat of the Red Raiders defense.
The concern is that none of that changes the fact that he is a 6’1 235lb off ball linebacker. For Rodriguez to go north of the top 50 or even in the second round, he must be viewed as middle or inside linebacker. Preferably a three-down linebacker. At that size, it’s a long shot if any NFL team views him that way.
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CB D'Angelo Ponds – Indiana
Ponds was a major player in spots for Indiana in 2025. One could argue Indiana does not go undefeated without Ponds. His concern is physical stature. At 5’9 and under 180lbs there are real concerns for Ponds 1-on-1 against NFL receivers 6’3 and taller.
Make no mistake about it, Ponds’ 43.5” vertical does help things. However, it’s not the hammer that fixes everything. Prior to the Combine, Ponds was expected to run in the 4.3s or low 4.4s. The speed is good, the vertical is great, but the size will be a concern. Like McDonald, Ponds is a candidate to revisit his tape.
The pre-Draft process has only just begun. The Combine and the Senior Bowl are only the opening salvo. Teams now have time to revisit tape and prepare for Pro Days as well as individual workouts and official visits. Draft stock for any given player can still change in either direction depending on how the rest of the process goes.
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