When Jayson Tatum fell to the floor on May 12, 2025, it appeared that the Celtics' window of contention had closed for at least a year. That conclusion may have been premature.
Nine months later, the Celtics are much better than anyone anticipated. With three-quarters of the regular season completed, they have found themselves in second place in the East. And help is on the way. Jayson Tatum will make his debut Friday night against the Mavericks in Boston.
That return comes with plenty of questions. Does he risk re-injury by returning too soon? Why was he able to come back so early? And what can we expect from him performance-wise if he does return this season?
In order to get the answers to some of those questions, we spoke with Dr. Derek Ochiai, a board-certified orthopaedic surgeon at Nirschl Orthopaedic Center in Arlington, VA.
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Jayson Tatum's SpeedBridge surgery explained
Much has been made of the SpeedBridge technique that Tatum's surgeon used in order to repair his Achilles. Unlike traditional surgery that relied on sewing the ends of the torn tendon together with knots, the SpeedBridge method offers a mechanical upgrade.
"A SpeedBridge technique is a very strong construct," Dr. Ochiai said. "It's something called a double row. Initially it was developed for rotator cuff surgery. A lot of everyday people get it. It's not just for elite athletes."
This technique uses anchors in the bone to secure the tendon, which is an example of how far treatment has advanced.
"Surgical repairs for Achilles have certainly come a long way," Dr. Ochiai added. "Using bone anchors was not commonplace 20 years ago. It used to be all sewing it back."
Tatum was also able to get the surgery performed within 24 hours of tearing his Achilles. While it's not clear cut if that timing speeds up biologic healing time, it does make some sense to get it done quickly.
Unlike ACL tears, where operating too quickly can cause knee stiffness, Dr. Ochiai noted that there is no medical reason to delay an Achilles repair. The sooner you get the surgery done, the sooner you get back.
Jayson Tatum's early return date
Friday's game will mark about nine-and-a-half months since his surgery. That's not particularly unusual for a professional athlete.
Historically, the injury took longer to recover and even ended careers. The treatment has improved substantially for modern athletes.
"The advances in sports medicine over the past 10 to 15 years has been astronomical. It's not one thing. It's surgery, it's surgical nutrition, it's optimizing physical therapy, metrics that athletic trainers use. It's all of these and the surgical techniques, all of this has contributed to getting athletes who, in the past may have had to take a year and a half off or call it a career, now they come back and perform at an elite level."
Nowadays, Dr. Ochiai says that a typical return to elite basketball is nine to 12 months.
Tatum is coming back sooner than Damian Lillard and Tyrese Haliburton, who also tore their Achilles during last year's playoffs and are not expected back this season. But every player's body is different, and there are a variety of factors that go into when they return.
"If two high-level athletes get the same surgery and every variable is identical, they can still come back months apart," Dr. Ochiai noted.
"He's a little on the shorter side," Dr. Ochiai said. "I think he's doing really well. It sounds like he's full go in practice and it's just a matter of time before he is able to get back on the court."
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum
Mar 1, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) reacts during the first half against the Philadelphia 76ers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images
Does Jayson Tatum risk re-injury by returning too early?
While some Celtics fans have expressed caution about Tatum's return, Dr. Ochiai thinks that it's a non-issue.
"The return to sport is based on metrics of strength and agility. Can his Achilles handle that amount of load? I think he's been out long enough at nine months where the risk of re-injury, which is there, wouldn't go down significantly if he waited.
"If he was not cleared by a surgeon, physical therapist, athletic trainers, and tried to play on an Achilles that was 80 percent, that would be an increased risk of re-rupture. But if he feels 100 percent, it's been nine months, the increased risk is really negligible."
How good will Jayson Tatum be this season?
It's unrealistic to expect Tatum to return to the first team All-NBA form that he was at before his injury right away. It will take some ramp-up time. But the Celtics are still going to be getting a very good player back.
Dr. Ochiai noted that it was extremely difficult to estimate how good Tatum would be for the rest of this season. But given his elite caliber and the success of his rehab, he guessed that Tatum could return this year at approximately 85 percent of his former self.
Tatum's Achilles might not be an issue, but he may encounter other problems in his return. Some of those would be mental.
"There's a psychological component to these injuries where the athlete might be at 100 percent, but the trust in their Achilles is not quite there yet. Those can be factors in why it might take longer to reach the highest levels," Dr. Ochiai said.
"Even if it's 100 percent, if your mind doesn't feel that, then you can lose a tenth of a second, a quarter of a step, something where you injure yourself. You can injure other things more easy if you're compensating or trying to protect one injury."
Tatum has mentioned how hard the mental process has been for him. He thought that he may never play again early in his rehab. He documented himself crawling up the stairs to his house after the injury, noting that "this long a— journey to get back onto the court, it can be discouraging."
History doesn't provide a great guide of what to expect from Tatum. The performance of other good-to-elite NBA players directly after an Achilles injury has been all over the place. Kevin Durant, who came back after 18 months, has been one of the feel-good success stories. Others, like DeMarcus Cousins and Brandon Jennings, were never totally the same player.
Player PPG in season direclty before injury PPG in season directly after injury Difference
Kevin Durant 26.0 26.9 +0.9
Klay Thompson 21.5 20.4 -1.1
DeMarcus Cousins 16.3 8.9 -7.4
Dejounte Murray 17.5 15.5 -2.0
Rudy Gay 18.7 11.5 -7.2
John Wall 20.7 20.6 -0.1
Brandon Jennings 15.4 6.9 -8.5
Average 19.4 15.8 -3.6
Overall, Dr. Ochiai is optimistic for Tatum's recovery.
"Once he's back on the court, I expect him to do really well. He's probably going to do even better as time goes on."