Now that all the “it’s happening” memes have been shared after the announcement that Jayson Tatum has been upgraded on the injury report, we can take a closer look at what to expect when he returns to action.
First, this is the next step of his rehab, not the end of it. Tatum didn’t break the tape and get draped with one of those foil sheets once this announcement was made. What this step means is that Tatum has achieved all he’s going to achieve on the practice floor, and now he needs NBA competition to further ramp up. Everyone should be well aware that he won’t be “Jayson Tatum” right away.
Any basketball player will tell you that no matter how much you try to simulate game conditions in practice, playing in a game is different. The speed is different because adrenaline is in play and the competition is trying to knock your head off. There's no coach with a whistle ready to stop practice.
And as an aside, this also means Tatum has already gone through the major clearance process from all the people who need to clear him. He didn’t go full speed without the doctors all agreeing he could go full speed. The trainers, surgeons, coaches, and front office all were in agreement to allow Tatum to take that step.
There's a constant evaluation process, but the major one has come and gone. At this point, it’s up to Tatum to say he feels ready physically and mentally. He’ll presumably make that leap tomorrow against Dallas.
When he does, he’ll be on a strict minutes restriction. It’s unclear whether he’ll start or come off the bench, but whatever the plan is, it will be very controlled. My guess is that he’ll come off the bench, play a couple of seven or eight minute stints, and then that will be it for his first few appearances.
The first stint will be the most interesting one because he’ll get winded quickly. I don’t care how much running and training anyone has done, the first two minutes of NBA basketball after 10 months away from live action will be hell. I can already picture him bent over, hands tugging on his shorts, laughing at how out of shape he really is.
Of course, he’s in phenomenal shape, but he’s not in basketball shape, and that's what this is about. And this is also why the minutes restriction exists. The body can only take so much at this point. It’s like a scuba diver coming up slowly to avoid the bends.
So they’ll push him to feel that burn and fatigue, then they’ll let him fully recover and push him again, each time seeing if they can tack on a minute or two. The initial recovery might take a little longer, and they won’t put him on the floor with too much soreness, so don’t be shocked if he misses some games along the way as well. That is almost guaranteed to happen, especially back-to-backs.
I think coming off the bench allows all of this to happen relatively smoothly. The regular starters this season can do what they’ve been doing, and then Tatum can work his way in against second units. I think putting him on the floor with Derrick White will help ease him into things. Once he gets his sea legs and can play a few more minutes, they can shift into the starting lineup to get him back into a more natural groove.
The Celtics will certainly have a plan of attack, but each step forward depends on how Tatum reacts to the previous step. How his body responds to the sudden jump to NBA action will dictate the next step, so expect some more vagueness from Joe Mazzulla and Brad Stevens.
That's nothing new, but Tatum being on the floor is. It’ll take some time to get him back to being himself, so don’t expect too much right away. They’ll be just as careful with this step as they have been for others, and how quickly it goes depends on how Tatum’s body handles each new thing thrown at it.