Chelsea are back in the thick of the raceplaceholder image
Chelsea are back in the thick of the race | Getty Images
A look at how many points Chelsea likely need to secure a top four finish this season.
Chelsea are right back in the thick of the race for Champions League qualification after a huge win during the week that allowed them to make up serious ground. The Blues thrashed Aston Villa 4-1 away from home and saw the two teams above them both fail to win.
Liverpool lost to Wolves and Manchester United lost to Newcastle United, allowing Chelsea to make up ground on all three of the teams above them. They are now above Liverpool on goal difference and three points behind each of United and Aston Villa.
That gives the Blues the lifeline they needed after a frustrating run of results, and there will be renewed hope heading into the last nine games.
How many points do Chelsea need to finish in the Premier League top four?
A fifth place finish may yet be enough for Chelsea to secure Champions League football, but with that yet to be confirmed, we will focus on the top four race, and what the Blues need to sneak above one of the two sides above them.
Firstly, let’s take a look at the 10-year average, which we calculate by taking the fifth-placed team from the last 10 years and adding a point to their final points total to figure out the minimum points required in each of the years to finish inside the top four without the need for goal difference. We then calculate the average over the 10-year period.
That 10-year average for fourth place is 68.7 points, which would leave Chelsea needing an average of 20.7 points from the last 27 points available to them. That does seem like a big ask, and it does look likely the points required will be on the lower end this season.
Opta’s predicted table suggests that, too, with Manchester United predicted to finish fourth with 64.43 points, while Liverpool are tipped to finish fifth with 63.01. Chelsea are tipped to end up with 62.84 points.
That predicted table would suggest at least 64 points are required, and that would leave the Blues needing a total return of 16 points from the last 27 available to them.
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