Jayson Tatum, Jayson Tatum over/under, Jayson Tatum picks, Celtics
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Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics reacts after their 132-106 win over the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on January 17, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia.
As the NBA’s official X account aptly noted, “Today is a good day for basketball” as Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum makes his miraculous return just 298 days after suffering a torn Achilles tendon in last year’s playoffs.
With Tatum expected to be under a heavy minutes restriction, oddsmakers have set the over/under for his points, assists, made threes and other statistical categories.
Below are updated Jayson Tatum picks, predictions, props and over/under.
Jayson Tatum Over/Under
Points:
Over 12.5: -125
Under 12.5: +100
15+: +135
20+: +475
25+: +1200
30+: +2500
35+: +3500
Source: Bet365
Other sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings have also set Tatum’s points over/under at 12.5 (over: -125, under: -111).
**Assists:**Over 2.5: -150
Under 2.5: +120
5+: +400
7+: +1500
**Rebounds:**Over 3.5: -155
Under 3.5: +122
5+: +130
7+: +500
10+: +2000
**Made Threes:**Over 1.5: -130
Under 1.5: +102
3+: +235
4+: +600
5+: +1200
6+: +2000
Points + Assists + Rebounds
Over 19.5: -112
Under 19.5: -112
Blocks:
Over 0.5: +175
Under o.5: -250
Double Double
Yes: +2200
No: -30000
Jayson Tatum Picks Suggestions
ESPNBet has set Tatum’s over/under for points at 13.5 and rebounds at 4.5.
Betting expert Joe Fortenbaugh offered some tips on ESPN’s “Get Up” on Friday morning, after news broke that Tatum would suit up against the Dallas Mavericks.
“In my opinion, you bet under the 13.5 points,” Fortenbaugh suggested.
“You bet under the 4.5 rebounds, because I don’t see him trying to clash the glass.
“You go over the 2.5 assists — I see him being deferential and trying to get others involved. Derrick White is going to be wide open tonight with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum on the floor.
“I don’t see him playing a lot of minutes or taking a ton of shots, so go under the points and rebounds, over the assists.”
‘Looks Like Jayson Tatum’
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on the “Pat McAfee Show” on Friday that “Jayson Tatum looks like Jayson Tatum” based on his conversations with Celtics staffers.
Charania also confirmed that Tatum would be on a minutes restriction.
“I’m told Jayson Tatum will be on a minutes restriction in his season debut against the Mavericks on Friday,” Charania said.
“… My understanding is both Tatum and the Celtics view these last 19 games — the last month and a half of the regular season — as a pocket and window of time to get as close to peak form ahead of the playoffs as possible.”
The six-time All-Star was seen in the weight room ahead of shootaround at the Auerbach Center on Friday morning.
The Celtics (21-41) enter tonight’s game against the Dallas Mavericks (21-41) as 14.5-point favorites, per DraftKings. The game will also mark the return of Maine native Cooper Flagg, who grew up a Celtics fan and will play his first game at TD Garden.