Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker during an NFL game.
Dan Graziano’s latest ESPN projection did not just put a price tag on Kenneth Walker III; it also predicted the Seahawks star will leave Seattle in free agency and sign with the Washington Commanders.Graziano projected Walker for three years and $44 million with $22 million guaranteed, with Washington listed as his landing spot.
That immediately makes this a real Seahawks storyline becauseSeattle already declined to use the franchise tag on Walker ahead of the March 3 deadline, leaving him on track to hit the market when the new league year begins on March 11, 2026, unless the sides agree to a new contract first.
Key Points
ESPN’s Dan Graziano projected Kenneth Walker III to sign with the Commanders for 3 years, $44 million.
The Seahawks did not use the franchise or transition tag on Walker before the March 3 deadline.
Walker is coming off a 1,027-yard regular season and enters free agency at age 25. He also became the Super Bowl MVP, powering Seattle to a championship.
Seahawks Rumors: Kenneth Walker Could Price His Way Out of Seattle
Graziano’s projection is notable less because it guarantees Walker is gone and more because it shows where the market could be heading. His projected average of roughly $14.7 million per year would put Walker above the franchise-tag benchmark Graziano referenced and near the very top of the running back market.
That is where this becomes a Seahawks decision, not just a player story.
Seattle has historically been reluctant to use the tag under John Schneider, and the team’s own site noted the Seahawks have used it only twice since 2010. The club can still re-sign Walker before free agency officially opens, but allowing him to test the market means Seattle could wind up bidding against teams with both cap room and an obvious backfield need.
Washington makes sense on paper. The Commanders’ official 2025 depth chart showed Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler atop the running back room, andlater reporting around Washington’s depth chart noted Robinson was moved before the season, leaving Ekeler and younger backs in the mix. That makes Walker’s fit as an explosive lead option easy to understand.
Seahawks News: Kenneth Walker Did Not Get Franchise Tagged Recap
Seattle’s decision not to tag Walker was the first sign that a real free-agency fight could be coming.
The Seahawks announced this week that they did not use the franchise or transition tag on any player, including Walker. That means Walker became free to keep negotiating with Seattle before the market opens, but Seattle gave up the exclusive leverage that comes with the tag.
That matters because Walker is not coming off a down year. The Seahawks’ official player page lists him at 1,027 rushing yards on 221 carries in 2025, and Graziano also pointed to his receiving value after a 31-catch season.
Kenneth Walker Stats, Age, Contract
Walker will still be just 25 years old as he enters the market, which is a big reason his free-agent case is stronger than many backs who hit free agency later in their careers. Seattle’s official site lists him at age 25, while Spotrac lists his rookie contract as a four-year, $8.44 million deal that expired after the 2025 season.
His regular-season production is still strong, too. Across four seasons, Walker has rushed for 3,555 yards and 29 touchdowns, including back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2022 and 2025.
The contract angle is what makes this so tricky for Seattle. Walker’s last deal carried a 2025 cap hit of just under $2.7 million. Graziano’s projection would be a massive jump from rookie-contract value to premium-veteran money.
That forces Seattle to answer a simple question: Is Walker important enough to pay like one of the league’s top backs, or is this where the Seahawks pivot to a cheaper option and reallocate money elsewhere on the roster?
Seattle still has time to keep this from becoming a goodbye story. But after the no-tag decision and Graziano’s Commanders projection, this is no longer just background noise. It is one of the Seahawks’ biggest roster questions heading into March 11.
What happens next?
The next checkpoint is whether Seattle and Walker reach a deal before the market opens on March 11. If not, the Seahawks risk losing one of their most explosive offensive players to a team like Washington that can sell both opportunity and a top-market contract.