Earlier this week I posted three free agency traps the Pittsburgh Steelers should avoid. One of the three ideas got a ton of pushback, and that was staying away from QB Malik Willis. With all the pushback, I thought it would be appropriate to expand on my thoughts and give a more thorough explanation of why it’s a bad idea.
One of the most frequent counterpoints I saw was the need for the Steelers to gamble and take some swings to find their next franchise quarterback. I agree with that idea, but within reason.
A one-year $15 million deal is one thing, but the two-year, $50 million contract Willis is projected to receive is simply too rich. His 78.7 completion percentage and 972 yards with six TDs and zero INTs was impressive in limited action over the last two seasons, but let’s not get carried away.
Allow me to list a handful of quarterback hot streaks that amounted to nothing in the NFL.
Gardner Minshew’s first five NFL starts in 2019 set the league on fire. The scrappy sixth-round rookie racked up 110 completions on 165 attempts over his first five games for 1,279 yards, nine TDs and one INT. That stretch ultimately wasn’t indicative of the career he would have.
How about Mike “F—ing” White with the New York Jets? Remember that craze? In 2021, the unassuming third-string backup completed 37 of 45 attempts for 405 yards and three TDs against the Cincinnati Bengals. He also had a nice stretch the following year across four games, but more or less fizzled back into obscurity after that.
Heck, we can even reference a Steeler to further my point. Mason Rudolph was the hero of 2023 with a 74.6 completion percentage, three TDs and no INTs to carry the Steelers to the playoffs at the end of the season.
There are too many examples to count of quarterbacks that played well in short spurts before defenses around the league adjusted to shut them down. Far more than the Steve Youngs, Sam Darnolds, or Geno Smiths of the world that eventually broke through to become something more.
If Willis is viewed as the top free agent QB, multiple teams will be bidding for his services. That likely means a multi-year deal for his services. A multi-year deal requires the Steelers to consider opportunity cost.
The Will Howard hype in Pittsburgh’s building is real. Bringing in a QB with a projected $35 million in guarantees makes it nearly impossible to get a good look at Howard. It’s not like they’d sit Willis for the entire preseason. He’s still very new to the league himself, and is barely less of a projection than Howard at this point.
Assuming Aaron Rodgers doesn’t return, Pittsburgh should look for a proven veteran that can keep them afloat while also allowing for a good look and potential transition to Howard later in the season.
Let me pose this hypothetical to anyone still doubting my argument.
Suppose Willis gets a two-year, $50 million deal with $35 million guaranteed and has an up-and-down season with a 9-7 record and a first-round playoff loss. Where does that leave the Steelers for their 2027 decision? Do they draft a quarterback early? And is Will Howard doomed to the Mason Rudolph treatment of never getting a real chance?
The Steelers have cap space, but that doesn’t mean they should throw it around haphazardly. They could use that money to solidify the offensive line, or bring in a game-changing WR to pair with DK Metcalf instead. And don’t forget about Joey Porter Jr., Darnell Washington, Keeanu Benton, Nick Herbig and others that are due for new contracts this offseason.
The Steelers don’t like rebuilding, which means Omar Khan has the difficult task of maximizing the roster for the present while keeping one eye on the future. That task becomes a lot harder if they take a $50 million swing and miss on Malik Willis.
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